OK - This may come to nothing but it's way too early

[malaise]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms well south of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the
wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the low-latitude tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[genxlib]

1. I'm with you on the weather watching

It is early but always good to keep an eye out.

I am also in South Florida so this time of year it is always a habit to watch NHC to see what we have to look forward to.

I am a bit of an amateur meteorologist when it comes to storm watching. Besides the normal personal concern, I do rescue work for FEMA so it can also be an early warning for a potential scramble to alert.

Nothing to worry about yet but stay safe if anything develops.

Peace

[malaise]

5. Keep it up

I usually check the commentary page on Weather Underground - they post most of the early stuff.
Most of them work in the field - one of them suggests that this may enter the Caribbean but peter out which is bad news for somewhere in the Caribbean.

[malaise]

13. Check this out-June Surprise: Twin Tropical Threats to Watch in Atlantic

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/june-surprise-twin-tropical-threats-watch-atlantic
<snip>
The next few days will be quite active for tropical weather watchers, as we have not one but two systems in the Atlantic that each show potential for developing into a tropical depression—an unusual twin prospect for mid-June.

Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—continued with their 0Z Wednesday runs to advertise the potential for a tropical depression to spin up in the Western Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. A large low pressure system, commonly referred to as a “gyre” of low pressure (see the diagnostics from SUNY Albany’s Phil Papin), will develop near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, spreading heavy rains across the Western Caribbean and portions of Central America and Southern Mexico. The interaction between this gyre and a tropical wave expected to move into the region this weekend may be enough to trigger formation of a tropical depression by early next week.

[genxlib]

14. Thanks for heads up

With climate change, who knows if history is a good judge of what to expect

[titaniumsalute]

2. I lived in PB County for 7 years

When I first moved from Ohio I was scared to death of hurricanes as a weather nut. Every tropical wave coming from Africa had me glued. Each year though I calmed down a little. Then it got to the point where it wasn't until an actual hurricane formed I'd even bother with the cone, etc.

I can see how people sort of get complacent as Floridians (or I should say any southeast/east coasters) after an area hasn't been hit so long. I wasn't in Boca Raton when Wilma came through but all of my neighbors were. It really shifted and nailed Palm Beach County/Broward in the middle of the night.

Back in Ohio...more straight line winds and tornadoes here. At least you get a few days notice of a hurricane.

[genxlib]

8. Wilma was something of a surprise

It went right over my house and was stronger that the predictions anticipated. The thing that surprised me is that it came from the SW and crossed a good portion of the state before it got here. I expected it to lose more strength coming over land.

That was still nothing like Andrew. I was in Miami at the time and spent a lot of time inspecting in the aftermath. That was like a 20 mile wide wrecking ball. South Floridians were really complacent at that time because it had really been a generation or more sense the previous serious threat.

[titaniumsalute]

9. I have a friend from Homestead who was there for Andrew

His neighborhood didn't have power for 5 weeks. He said you really learn a lot about yourself, your neighbors, your will to survive when that happens. Most people also don't think about the heat, the bugs, the smells, etc in dead of summer when you have no power.

[malaise]

12. They don't think about the smell of spoiling meat in a freezer

Imagine Andrew's 25th anniversary is this year.

[brooklynite]

3. No, "Hurricane Season" historically starts in June,

[malaise]

4. Just five percent of Atlantic hurricanes since 1851 have occurred in June

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/june-hurricanes-tropical-storms-formation-locations
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in June, but activity is typically slow during the month.

Most systems form in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic typically remains fairly light during the hurricane season's first month before things really heat up August into early October.

Just 5 percent of the tropical storms since 1851 in the Atlantic have occurred in June. For comparison, August, September and October have accounted for 23 percent, 35 percent and 21 percent of all tropical storms on record, respectively.

[genxlib]

6. Plus

Storms in June tend to be of the weaker variety. I am a little jaded but I don't worry about them until they crack Cat2.

The TSs and Cat1 can do a lot of damage but they are generally manageable if you pay attention and take all the precautions.

I have a structural engineering background so my reaction is calibrated to what damage I would expect to see. While I probably take the lighter storms to nonchalantly, the stronger ones freak me out because I know what they can do. Hurricane Andrew was a real eye opener.

[malaise]

10. We all take the weaker ones for granted

but sometimes they move slowly and create more problems because of flooding

[Hortensis]

7. Hmmm. Thanks for the early note. Like to be aware.

[malaise]

11. You're welcome

[malaise]

16. From Jeff Masters- Odds Increasing for a Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Next Week

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/odds-increasing-gulf-mexico-tropical-storm-next-week
<snip>
The odds are increasing that the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean will see formation of a tropical depression early next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 5-day odds of tropical cyclone development of 50% for this region, up from the 20% odds given on Wednesday morning. Satellite loops on Thurday morning showed a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean, as a large low pressure system called a “gyre” of low pressure began to form (see the website of SUNY Albany’s Phil Papin, who has developed automated routines to diagnose these gyres). This gyre is expected to move slowly west-northwest to northwest, and will be centered near the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The interaction between this gyre and a tropical wave expected to move into the region this weekend may be enough to trigger formation of a tropical depression by early next week. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Tropical Storm Bret.

The 0Z Thursday runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—continued to advertise the potential for a tropical cyclone to form. These models have been very persistent in this forecast during the week, giving confidence that such a storm will indeed form. With ocean temperatures in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico about about 1°C (1.8°F) above average, at 29.5°C (85°F), along with wind shear that is predicted to be moderate, conditions will be ripe for development--if the area of low pressure manages to center itself over the water. There is plenty of land in the region to potentially interfere with development, though, and high wind shear may be an issue for the storm later in the week. The large size of the gyre will make it difficult for this system to intensify quickly, since it takes a long time to get such a large mass of air spinning more rapidly. None of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble or 50 members of the European ensemble from the 0Z Thursday runs of these models predicted that the storm would ever reach hurricane strength.
-

[Hortensis]

17. Thanks. Malaise! My husband was just down there replacing

boards lost from our dock in a storm last year. Every big tropical storm these days seems to mean flooding up over the lawn onto the lower patio, which is about 3 feet above the top of the old cinderblock "sea wall" that lines our portion of the canal. I confess I enjoy them when we're down there, though, with sheets of rain gusting horizontally. Back in Los Angeles, except for a few Santa Ana wind storms, extreme weather was pretty rare and most often involved cloudless skies and shimmering heat from temps well over 100.

[spanone]

15. K&R...