General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTo any Brit based folks-any chance at all for May to lose?
Or will she consolidate her margin.
Doodley
(9,124 posts)FBaggins
(26,757 posts)But the polling doesn't look good...And they opposition is in shambles
mwooldri
(10,303 posts)... and effectively make it a Brexit Referendum, Round 2...
then there is actually a pretty good chance.
Conservative MPs in strong Remain areas could be vulnerable. Depending on who the natural opposition is, we're talking a Labour or Lib-Dem gain. My birth constituency (Guildford) voted Remain, as did Surrey South West, and Lewes. The Lib Dems are the natural opposition here. Guildford even returned a Lib Dem MP (during the height of Labour's popularity).
I'd love to see it if where the challenger to a Tory seat in a Remain constituency is then left to be that based on the 2nd strongest party in the last few general elections -. i.e. if it's Conservative vs Labour the LibDems don't put up a candidate. It's an election pact that could work in England and Wales only.
Scotland is a whole different matter; the country is nearly devoid of English-style Tories and rarely returns any Conservatives to Westminster. I expect the SNP to lose some seats - but to Labour or the Lib Dems, not the Tories. Yes, there are Tories in Scotland, they're the 2nd largest group at Holyrood; that's because the Scottish Parliament isn't elected based on "first past the post" like Westminster is elected.
FBaggins
(26,757 posts)Just as importantly, a significant number believe that there is no turning back at this point - so the debate is over how to implement it... not whether it should be undone.
Also missing from your analysis is the fact that UKIP still exists, but have little need for a party any longer. Many/most of those votes will flow to the Tories. Current projections place the carnage at ~60 seats switching from Labour to Tories.