Charles Pierce: Carter Page Feels Like a Warning Shot

[babylonsister]

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a54457/carter-page-fisa-warrant-fbi/

Carter Page Feels Like a Warning Shot

Someone leaked this news with a very specific aim.
By Charles P. Pierce
Apr 12, 2017


This is the kind of thing that doesn't leak, even in Washington. Except this one did, and that makes all the difference. From The Washington Post:

The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page's communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials. This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump's favor.

Let us begin by stating that the FISA Court—a rubber-stamp secret court issuing secret warrants—gives me the willies, and it has ever since it was created in the late 1970s response to the Church committee's revelations of CIA depredations. (During the late Bush administration, I got something of a kick out of liberals who were on fire because the Bush folks ignored the FISA court.) That being said, unless you're living fulltime in Alex Jonestown, the fact that the FBI got this warrant, and then got it extended, means that there was something very hinky about Page's relationship with the blinis-and-bullets crowd in Moscow.

But more significant to me, anyway, is the fact that all of this leaked—the warrant and the specific individual against whom it was filed. This just doesn't happen. This can't be anything but a warning shot from the intelligence community. We know, and you know we know, so how about you watch your step for a while? Meanwhile, Page was busy performing some improv at Bad Historical Analogy Theater.

"This confirms all of my suspicions about unjustified, politically motivated government surveillance," Page said in an interview Tuesday. "I have nothing to hide." He compared surveillance of him to the eavesdropping that the FBI and Justice Department conducted against civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.

Well, no, but thank you for playing.

The government's application for the surveillance order targeting Page included a lengthy declaration that laid out investigators' basis for believing that Page was an agent of the Russian government and knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of Moscow, officials said. Among other things, the application cited contacts that he had with a Russian intelligence operative in New York City in 2013, officials said. Those contacts had earlier surfaced in a federal espionage case brought by the Justice Department against the intelligence operative and two other Russian agents. In addition, the application said Page had other contacts with Russian operatives that have not been publicly disclosed, officials said.

There's an insane amount of detail in the story about what perked up the interest of the FBI concerning Page's contacts with various Russian operatives. This also is not a usual thing. This is the kind of material that gets released because whomever released it has a good reason to do so. (None of this is to minimize the work it takes for the Post's reporters to cultivate sources in the toughest place in the country to do so.) I'm starting to lose track of all the low-running wars that are going on within this administration, but all the conniving and backstabbing and intrigue is one of the most Russian things about it.

Any day now, we're going to be looking to see who's golfing at Mar-a-Lago with the same interest we once had as to who was going to the opera in Moscow.

[mcar]

1. The leaks keep coming

[jberryhill]

2. One of the questions I have on this one is....

So if they got the warrant last year, and Page has not been charged with anything, what does that suggest?

Some of the arguments against the FISA process are pretty lame since, in the ordinary course, it's not as if anyone is able to challenge a warrant application in a regular court either at the time the warrant is sought.

However, if law enforcement gets a warrant to search a place for weed, or whatever it is they have probable cause to believe is there, then they get the warrant, do the search, and either (a) find it and bring charges, or (b) don't find it and that's that.

Here, you have a warrant issued on probable cause, so they go and monitor his communications. They come back later and ask to have it extended. Why? Did they not find what they were looking for the first time? Or if they did, then why are they not charging him with whatever it was they had probable cause to believe was going on in the first place?

[grantcart]

6. because it's ongoing?

For a complex case 9 months is not very long. Federal prosecutors are also known for only prosecuting slam dunk cases and let other investigation continue until there is nothing more to learn.

[jberryhill]

9. "until there is nothing more to learn"

That's kind of weak sauce.

If they were investigating Trump campaign collusion with the Russians, then allowing it to proceed to success seems to be an exercise in missing the point.

"Hey Judge, we have reason to believe Jimbob is planning a bank robbery, can we get a warrant for surveillance?"

"Sure."

"Hey Judge, we found out that Jimbob is indeed going to rob the First National Bank on Sunday, can we extend the warrant?"

"Sure."

"Hey Judge, Jimbob robbed the bank as planned, and he took a hostage. We think we know where he is, can we extend the warrant?"

"Sure."

"Hey Judge, Jimbob killed the hostage right where we thought he did, and we think he is planning another robbery, can we extend the warrant?"

"Yep."

I mean, other than continuing to be spectator's to Jimbob's criminal career, is there some point to this exercise which apparently does not result in arresting or charging Jimbob with anything?

[Vinnie From Indy]

12. How about this...

"Your honor we have reason to believe that Jimbob is acting as a foreign agent can we get a warrant?"

"Sure"

"Hey Judge we have reason to believe that Jimbob is working with a yet unknown accomplice within the Trump campaign due to the conversations Jimbob is having"

"Sure"

[jberryhill]

14. At some point in the process, one might expect someone to be arrested for a crime

[KittyWampus]

34. Not when it involves counter surveillance. It's difficult to bring charges using classified

It's difficult to bring charges using classified intelligence.

Especially since there is so much connected, money laundering/organized crime etc.

You are usually more astute than this.

[jberryhill]

35. I'm feeling as astute as usual

People get charged, and tried, for espionage all of the time without requiring revelation of the material in question. There are procedures for that.

The process of going to court and getting a warrant is to satisfy the requirement that there be probable cause to believe a crime occurred, and that the warrant is issued on the proposition that it will obtain evidence of that crime. It's not intended to be a spectator sport.

[askyagerz]

18. They don't want Carter page

They used him as an asset to figure out where all those roads led. Sometimes it takes years of investigating to find out all the players in something this big. Even a search warrant for weed sometimes takes months of investigation

[jberryhill]

19. Ah, gee, I guess we'll have to wait and see whether it gets Trump elected or something

I think it is pretty fucking clear where these roads led.

[askyagerz]

20. It's pretty clear where the roads lead in most investigations

Drawing a 100% accurate map for prosecutors is another thing. If it was too early then it was too early. This is probably a very good thing for democrats because the longer it takes an investigation the bigger that map will be

[Grins]

23. Yeah? Prove it.

In court. Think we're now at that stage?

The target is more than Carter Page.

[jberryhill]

24. I guess we're going to have to taste it, to figure out if it really is dogshit

Reminds me of that old joke.

[bora13]

26. cheborneck - cheech & chong

"Hey Cheborneck, look over here, what is that?"
"Looks like dog shit."
"smell"
"Smell like dogshit"
"pick up"
"feel like dogshit"
"taste"
"Whaaaat!"
"TASTE!"
"taste like dog shit"
"good thing we don't step in it"
"yah, good thing"

[grantcart]

22. They were not investigating Trump campaign collusion

The leak about Page was very specific.

They were investigating known Russian spies who were trying to get "male A" who was not very bright to become an agent and pass very specific economic data, which apparently he did in several trips.

The original tip, the following investigation had nothing to do with the campaign.

[Cosmocat]

27. "male A" who was not very bright

They might as well have just flat out called him by name ...

[grantcart]

36. what was really funny is when a reporter read the whole excerpt

to Carter he said, "yea sounds like me"

Although to be fair he was probably responding to the names of the Russians.

[babylonsister]

7. Maybe, based on what they found out with the first warrant,

they knew there'd be more info coming down the pike.

[jberryhill]

10. You mean, like the scheme working and Trump getting elected?

Boy, I hope they continue to extend those warrants for another few years.

[babylonsister]

11. Not necessarily. We don't know specifically

why the original FISA warrant was issued other than concerns over Page. I do hope we get to find out.

[jberryhill]

25. Yeah, before anything bad happens

[GliderGuider]

30. The crime may be bigger than just "getting Trump elected"

I can think of a few things larger - like destroying American democracy no matter who gets into power. Remember, this started well before the election, when it looked like Trump didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making it all the way.

Conspiracy to mess with an election is one thing. Conspiracy to bring down the Republic is something else entirely. Something that might make it a bad idea to bust Carter Page just for shits and grins.

[world wide wally]

13. The way they keep building on this investigation with no charges being brought

makes me think that one thing just leads to another and this is fucking yuuuuuge and they need to make an airtight case when they do bring charges.

Hopefully speaking, of course.

[dixiegrrrrl]

40. why are they not charging him ?

Same reason they are not charging Flynn....

Obviously it is handy to have more than few rats who will squeal on the others.
Often you don't have to actually charge them, just threaten then with charges.

You know.....Law and Order stuff.

Huge case, huge number of players to catch, and most importantly, need as airtight as possible to get Trump out of OUR WH.

[malthaussen]

43. Perhaps the standby cliche "to see where it leads" applies?

Unlike Jimbob robbing the bank on Tuesday, espionage and collusion may not have specific goals to stop. And if Jimbob is a single agent, there is no further investigation needed. But if he is part of a ring, or connected to other criminals, it might be useful to discover those links.

It's a rationale, anyway. But I would prefer to see some arrests made at some point, too. Convictions, even.

-- Mal

[grantcart]

3. It's a good point on who leaked this.

He is wrong about FISA being a rubber stamp, a point he makes by saying that if they did get the warrant and the extension then the there is something "very hinky" about Page.

[Achilleaze]

4. No doubt that's why the republican PeeFreak is...

trying to divert attention again by damning Comey, and wildly, falsely claiming that Hillary should be locked up for not having broken any laws.

Republican liars, traitors & coverup wankers are much alike.

[cyclonefence]

5. Love Charlie Pierce, but

writers ought to have to be certified and licensed before they're allowed to use the word "whom." So much safer to write "who" because 99% of the time that's what you mean.

[GliderGuider]

32. Whom cares?

We deel with all kinds of worser grammar and bad speling on teh internets all the time, and still manage to git the pont of the store.

[cyclonefence]

38. Clearly me do

[GliderGuider]

41. :)

[Trekologer]

8. My first reaction was that the IC was pushing back on Syria airstrikes

The whole thing seems fishy with Russia operating from the same airbase that the gas attack was launched from. And prior to our strike, Russia and Syria both remove almost everything of value and then the airfield is operational the next day.

Is someone in the IC sending a message on that?

[GliderGuider]

31. This is too big a leak to be related to the airstrikes.

Leaking this much info on a FISA warrant is literally unheard of. Mensch certainly didn't have this info back in November when she scooped the Alfa Bank warrant. This leak is a big fucking deal.

It also means that there are at least two FISA warrants in play - the one on the Russian banks and the one on Carter Page. I wonder how many more there are?

[L. Coyote]

15. Anything anyone said near Page, every phone call, every e-mail, all in evidence right now.

Wow, that's a lot of people sweating bullets today.

Link to tweet

[Equinox Moon]

16. Sounds like they are suggesting there are Russian spys in the WH.

[Mr. Evil]

17. All this 'alleged' collusion with the Russians

regarding the election and its results brings up another issue. Mitch McConnell said after Antonin Scalia's death that the next president should be the one to nominate the next justice to the supreme court. Why would he be so confident that a republican would be making that choice since Hillary and even Bernie were polling ahead of all republicans in the race at that time. This begs the questions, what did Mitch know and when did he know it?

[genxlib]

21. Looked at from the other way

What did he have to lose?

They were planning on approving Garland in the lame duck session if they lost.

I suppose they could have been outmaneuvered to end up with somebody more left and younger but I doubt it. Obama is too classy to yank it away from Garland. The Repubs had the power to bring it to a vote and he would have won.

I started counting chickens too early and thought about the ways it could play out. The only way I saw it going to someone else is if Garland himself pulled out with the reasoning that he owed it to the President Elect to choose someone themselves. Even then, there would have been a lot of pressure for him to be renominated by Clinton.

[bucolic_frolic]

29. Yes

and when you want to win an election and you've decided to do whatever it takes,
illegal or not, what do you do? It's a giant espionage game. You give in the famous
words of Admiral John Poindexter I think it was, "plausible deniability", or you find a
patsy, a fall guy to take the blame, and operate at arms length, as they say in
covert circles, "agent without portfolio" - like the old Mission: Impossible: "if you are
caught or killed, the agency will disavow any knowledge of your actions. Good luck, Jim."

Or you find someone to do it to whom the laws don't quite apply - foreigners or foreign
governments, operating outside the country. And you know it's going on so you invite them
to do it - publicly.

There's just not a lot of room for equivation.

[Mr. Ected]

28. Many of us were concerned that the Syrian mission was a deflection from Russian allegations

Looks like the IC community is resolute to keep this matter in the public eye.

That is VERY telling, and hopefully bodes well for justice being served.

[Paladin]

33. From your keyboard to God's ears, Charlie P. (nt)

[maxsolomon]

37. Carter Page seems like kind of a dipshit to me

A dupe rather than a conspirator. Am I wrong?

Paul Manafort is the one who I'd have surveilled, but he might be too smart to leave a trail. Or smart enough to make Page the scapegoat.

[malaise]

39. We know, and you know we know, so how about you watch your step for a while?

That simple

[tavalon]

42. Damn, you are right

U hadn't thought this through completely. Fuck.

[spixxen]

44. Yep....

.....if you are feeling overwhelmed by all of it that is totally natural.

That is what they want.

Take a day off from the chaos and come back refreshed.

And follow some cute animal accounts on Twitter.

They are very helpful in relieving stress.