Kansas special election live results!

[MoonRiver]

<1% reporting, but looking good!

Live Results: Republicans Defend House Seat in Kansas Special Election
BY WILSON ANDREWS, MATTHEW BLOCH, JEREMY BOWERS AND ADAM PEARCE APRIL 11, 2017, 8:41 PM ET

CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
James Thompson
Democrat
14,270 61.4%
Ron Estes
Republican
8,642 37.2
Chris Rockhold
Libertarian
329 1.4
<1% reporting (2 of 620 precincts)

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4

[hlthe2b]

1. 45 minutes in and only two precincts reporting...

hmmm....

[uponit7771]

19. +1, similar to last Nov IINM... the red districts came in later ... maybe nothing

[stevepal]

46. Thompson's lead is because Sedgwick (Wichita) is heavily Democratic.

When the whole state's results are in, that lead if it still remains will be much smaller. Thompson is a very good candidate, but when the results are supposedly in, it's highly likely that Estes will win. The voting machines are "rigged" in KS, as Beth Clarkson has shown with her exit polling during the last election. The same is true across the country but the tilt is even greater in KS. If Thompson win's by a hair, it will be because he actually won by a landslide.

[cannabis_flower]

111. This is a congressional district

It won't involve the whole state, will it?

[RKP5637]

2. I'd love to see the republicans get their asses kicked in Kansas. Way back it used to be a nice

state before the Kock Brothers strangled it to death.

[MoonRiver]

3. I live here, and believe me, we want it soooooo bad!

[MuseRider]

99. IIRC

you live close to where I do. Yes we do want it!

[uponit7771]

21. +1

[Squinch]

4. Thank you! I'm in New York, but I really am pulling for you guys!

[MoonRiver]

6. Thank you!

I wish I were in New York, but life sent me to this here. I'm fighting for my country!

[Squinch]

9. Well come visit! But in the meantime, keep us posted.

[MoonRiver]

15. We will be there in July!

[Tatiana]

5. I don't trust these Republican bastards, but Thompson had a HUGE surge this last week.

My gut tells me the race is super close (close enough to be stolen).

I hope he edges Estes. I was so happy that they had Trump do a robocall for Estes. That probably cost him several votes.

[MoonRiver]

10. As soon as I heard Chump's message, I thought Estes is toast, LOL!

I've been here 15 years, and one thing I can say about Kansans, is that they are practical. Brownback has destroyed our schools and economy. Chump has proven himself to be a liar and fraud. I will not be very surprised if we win this election.

[redwitch]

7. Do we know how those counties voted in November last year?

I would love to see the Kansas election results and compare them to today's results.

[MoonRiver]

11. They went overwhelmingly for Chump. But that was ... then.

[Kolesar]

8. Do they teach about The Grange in Kansas schools?

It got a mention in my US History class forty years ago. I would think it would be a big deal.
There is a book in my local library that explains how it changed Congress and got the railroads regulated.

[MoonRiver]

12. 2% reporting - a little bit closer, but not much

CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
James Thompson
Democrat
14,704 60.2%
Ron Estes
Republican
9,381 38.4
Chris Rockhold
Libertarian
351 1.4
2% reporting (12 of 620 precincts)

[monmouth4]

13. I'm in Florida and really rooting for you guys. So far, so good, hope it works out..n/t

[MoonRiver]

16. Thanks!

[More_Cowbell]

14. I donated last week

Even though it didn't seem likely. I've given up contributing to the DNC and their favored candidates, and I'm just giving on my own.

[MoonRiver]

18. Thank you so much!

If we pull this off, it will be an epic indictment against both Brownbackistan and Chumpy!

[Tatiana]

30. Solid decision. I've decided to do the same.

Sad that the local Kansas Democratic Party would not chip in to support him financially. Thank goodness people like yourself and so many others stepped in to help him with mailers and outreach.

[hatrack]

51. Same here - gave up on the committees, and now donate only to candidates

DSCC and DCCC both called this weekend. I told them both the same thing: "Start supporting candidates like Ken Thompson, and then we'll talk. Call back in three months, and we'll see if you've done anything to merit my meager contributions."

Doubtless put the fear of God into them but I have donated to both Thompson and Ossof, and will probably make a donation to this week to Rob Quist.

[GallopingGhost]

17. C'mon, Thompson! n/t

[MoonRiver]

20. Yeah!

[DeminPennswoods]

22. Good stuff at Ryan Struyk's twitter

Link: https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk

Also: Tom Bonier here: https://twitter.com/tbonier

[yortsed snacilbuper]

23. I guardedly optimistic.

Go blue!

[MoonRiver]

27. Me too! Who would have ever thought this was even possible? Wichita suburb???!!!

[sprinkleeninow]

24. Cheerleadin' for you guys! Go Thompson, TOUCHDOWN! Plus, I gave.

[MoonRiver]

25. Every appendage crossed!

[dchill]

26. Reccin'

[spanone]

28. K&R...

will it magically flip????

[MoonRiver]

29. With 9% in - 55 Thompson; 43% Estes

Closer, but we're still winning!

[Norbert9]

31. Up 9.9% with 12% reporting

[MrScorpio]

32. Thanks, Gov Brownback!

[MoonRiver]

33. Lol, got that right!

[bathroommonkey76]

34. 71 precincts reporting- Thompson is still up!

Link to tweet

[Dawson Leery]

36. This could need a recount.

[Tatiana]

35. So far the campaign is doing exactly what it needs to.

It's early, but he's not getting completely blown out in other counties. He's hanging in there.

Wichita and Sedgwick County will hopefully deliver bigly for Thompson!

[MoonRiver]

37. I never thought it was possible, but now I can't drag myself away from the poll results!

We are in a much more liberal area of KS, so results like this in Wichita are amazing.

[Tatiana]

39. If he wins, his campaign has just written the blueprint for Democrats running in red states.

Thompson is a fantastic candidate, but his campaign is pretty world-class, too.

He went straight at Trump and Estes -- he didn't mince words. He stood up for his values and I think voters are responding to his authenticity. Volunteers phone-banked, they went door to door, and they took nothing for granted. They tried to go after every voter.

[MuseRider]

45. This is due to some very hard work

by friends of mine who have been pounding the party to stop being just a tiny bit to the left, just so they had a way to run back if someone said boo. To stand up loud and proud and state your intentions without mewling or walking it back when they shake their fingers at you. I have watched this happen slowly due to someone I care very much about and others. He has stuck his neck out and worked as hard as I have ever seen someone work for something here. This IS exactly what a candidate needs to do. Nobody wants to vote for someone not firm on their ideals or weak in the face of opposition. Thompson gave one heck of a speech at Washington days and then introduced Bernie. He was engaging and firm about what is important. Like you said.

[pangaia]

48. Is there a 'city' in Sedgwick?

[hatrack]

49. Yes, Wichita - the metro is about 700,000

.

[Tatiana]

52. Wichita. Looks of Democratic/Independent votes to be had there.

If he overperforms there (60% or thereabouts), I think he wins this.

[NYC Democrat]

38. Results so far are very interesting.

So far Thompson is outperforming what he needs in the Urban/Suburban Counties HE needs to win... while Este's is doing the same in the Rural Counties HE needs to win.

A further mark of the ever increasing Rural and Urban divide.

[MuseRider]

40. As evening drew nearer

I have tried to put this out of my mind. I so want Thompson to win. I want everyone in this state to see that it is OK to buck the establishment. These people under Brownback with Kobach and the Kochs have put the fear of god into so many people, especially after the year that took out almost every single Democrat or moderate Republican. The final push by the Kochs with the money and the national Republicans paying a lot of attention sure made my heart soar thinking of them being worried about an election here.

Holding my breath, crossing everything that I can cross and waiting.

[MoonRiver]

42. Even if Thompson loses, so hope he doesn't, he will have given PTB a run for their money.

This is something they cannot ignore.

[MuseRider]

47. Isn't it great?

Just them seeing a "new" brand of Democrat will make them worry. SO exciting.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

41. Ohhh boy hope you go blue!!!

Fingers and toes crossed, from NY state.

[NYC Democrat]

43. My current math has Este's winning very narrowly due to overperforming in the rurals.

Thompson is overperforming in the more urban areas but it doesn't look like it's by quite enough. Harvey and Sedgwick have shifted massively Dem, but the rurals have barely moved at all.

Kinda crazy how massive the rural-urban divide has become.

[MoonRiver]

53. That's very true, but KS farmers are pretty pissed off too, so who knows!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. Your math looks right but it augurs well for less lopsided districts in 018.

[hatrack]

60. Speaking of which . . .

Don't know if you followed the fires in this district back in March - over 1,000 square miles burned, ranches wiped out, whole herds of cattle killed or had to be killed. Worst fires on record, especially this early in the year, but "Ooh! Can't talk about global warming!!"

But I digress . . .

Not long after, the residents of these areas (Barber County, Comanche County, etc.) were complaining about how it "sure would be nice for President Trump to at least mention the disaster."

Well, they're still waiting, and I'm sure they'll be trotting to the polls to vote for the party of President Doesn't Giveashit, like the good little Republicans they are . . .

[grantcart]

44. Thanks

[MoonRiver]

54. You're welcome!

[NYC Democrat]

50. This is all going to come down to how much Thompson overperforms in Whitcha and Harvey

Rurals are going strong for Este but Thompson is outdoing what was expected in those two counties.

[grantcart]

56. Thank you for your analysts

[NYC Democrat]

66. Harvey county just swung hard toward Este not good.

[retrowire]

57. I heard this was a proxy election

And may be a good reflection of how the rest of the nation will go.

[Fla Dem]

58. Nail biter. 48% in Estes &Thompson tied @ 49% each.

As quick as I posted, Thompson now at 49%, Estes at 50%. As rural counties report, Estes is pulling away.

[grantcart]

59. Tied with 50%

[MoonRiver]

61. Repuke Estes just barely ahead now. 48% in.

[Barack_America]

65. Yeah, but there's so much of Wichita out.

It's gotta come down to that county.

[Shrek]

62. I'm watching the crawl on local media

Looks really tight right now.

[fishwax]

63. There are still 46 precincts yet to report in Sedwick County (Wichita)

if Thompson has the margins in those remaining precincts that he has so far in Sedgwick County than he should be able to win this thing.

Come on, Kansas! Let's go, Wichita!

[fishwax]

90. Whoops ... that was 46 polling places (now 30), not precincts

It looks like there are 127 precincts reporting out of 257 ... so still 130 precincts out in Sedgwick County: http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

[fishwax]

64. Here's a link to results from Sedgwick County specifically

http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

[NYC Democrat]

67. Currently looking like a 2-5 point Este win, but if turnout is strong in Segdwick..

[NYC Democrat]

68. Can I just say the National Party were fools to ignore this race, the RNC saw a problem and invested

the DNC should of met them in kind.

[Tatiana]

71. Yep. What else is new?

We need some fresher, more aggressive leadership.

Clearly hindsight is 20/20, but if he had been given the $20K he'd asked for back in Feb./March, this might not have been such an uphill battle.

[NYC Democrat]

73. With margins like this if the DNC had thrown a few 100k in I think Thompson would of won by like 3.

[Tatiana]

77. He needed to get the name recognition up. That was one of the biggest issues.

Once people met him at events, they supported him. But, he needed help getting his image and name out there, which of course costs $$$.

This easily could have been a 2-3 point win with national support. Hell, the Republicans called in Trump, Pence, and even Ted Cruz.

[Me.]

80. Totally Agree

He asked for help and was refused...what a disgrace

[mvd]

82. If this ends up a couple point or less defeat..

He should be mad. Why are we so afraid to look like we tried and lost? We are competitive in a district Trump won easily. If we are really that low on money, I better try to donate.

[Me.]

86. You Think They Couldn'T Come Up With The Money If They Really Wanted To?

This is just so disheartening, it's like the last couple elections didn't matter at all and the PTB don't seemingly mind that the GOP is ruling every aspect of the country. Where was Perez in this?

[mvd]

88. I do think they could have, unless someone teaches me otherwise

I don't know about how Perez could have changed this, but some people messed up in not sending funds.

[Me.]

92. We Are So In Agreement

Perez is supposed to be the guy in charge, where is he aside from running around the country with Bernie Sanders?

Back at ya...

[Me.]

89. Culpable Is What They Are

Their abandonment of Dem candidates make them unworthy of their positions.

[bucolic_frolic]

69. Did the Russians vote yet?

They're going to pull it out again, aren't they.

[pangaia]

70. How are cities like ...

topeka, Lawrence, Kansas City(KS) Overland Park, Olathe, etc doing..
I'm from upstate NY. LOL!!

[NYC Democrat]

72. Witcha is the entire reason this is a race at all still really.

So far this special is a MASSIVE example of Rural/Urban divide.

[pangaia]

74. Thanks,, I have friends in lawrence,, faculty,,

and manhattan, same... they also are pulling for Thompson !!!

[MuseRider]

81. All of us up here are

pulling for him. Even a few Republicans who are tired of this.

[Shrek]

75. Not part of this election

Those cities are in a different congressional district.

[pangaia]

76. OH ! GOD dumb dumb dumb....

[MoonRiver]

78. Estes ahead by 3, BOOOO!

Even if Estes wins, in the reddest of red area, of a red state, it won't be by much, and should send a signal to Repukes that they are in trouble, circa 2018.

[NYC Democrat]

79. Goddamn it Sedgwick report faster.

[grantcart]

83. going the wrong way

[LAS14]

84. Would the 20,000 from the state and/or some DNC money...

... or DCCC money have flipped this to Thompson? I know it's not over yet, but it's really maddening that the Democratic party didn't support Thompson, no matter what the end result. It clearly was worth the investment!!

[Tatiana]

91. I do think it would have. He was struggling to get his message heard.

When people met him, they liked what they saw. But, many people didn't know who he was. You have to spend $$$ to increase name recognition, buy ads, and to book meet and greets.

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article140972328.html

http://prospect.org/article/democrat-tries-pull-kansas-miracle

[grantcart]

96. any one mailing is unlikely to do more than 1-2% at this point

Dollars would have been better spot on GOTV.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

85. What's the likelihood of Topeka going Blue?

[Shrek]

93. Topeka isn't voting

Different district.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

98. Derp

[MuseRider]

94. Wrong district.

If you mean in the next election it could. It is close to being blue at times

[fishwax]

87. Thompson is outperforming last November's result in every county so far

In several counties he's performing significantly better than we did last time around.

I can't find a county-by-county breakdown for the House race last fall, but here's a breakdown for the presidential ticket: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/kansas/. It's worth noting that while Trump won the district handily, Pompeo's margins in the house race were even bigger than Trump's. So the swing to the democrats in this election is even bigger than a comparison with Trump's/HRC's numbers would suggest.

[sweetloukillbot]

103. Yeah - this is impressive regardless

Pompeo won the district by 30 points, Trump by 23 or 24. Estes is up by 6.

[Stonepounder]

95. As of 10:25pm

CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Ron Estes
Republican
46,176 52.5%
James Thompson
Democrat
40,305 45.8
Chris Rockhold
Libertarian
1,534 1.7
78% reporting (481 of 620 precincts)

[pangaia]

100. RATS!!

[fishwax]

97. There are now 139 precincts left to report, and I think that 130 of them are in Sedgwick County

So it's all up to Wichita to bring Thompson back.

[Leghorn21]

105. WichiTAH WichiTAH WichiTAH - bring it on home, Wichita!!!!!!

[DemocraticSocialist8]

101. All Counties have reported...Wichita is the only region left

and it's only half finished. Thompson is only down by 6,000 votes.

[NYC Democrat]

102. I don't think Thompson can win anymore but given almost all the outstanding is Sedgwick

The margin will probably narrow a bit.

Gonna guess 3-5 Este in the end.

[Barack_America]

106. Helluva showing for Kansas. Kansas Dems should be proud.

[SaschaHM]

113. They should, but they'll be drowned out by the...

circular firing squad about a Dem over performing by 20 points in a ruby red district.

[applegrove]

104. The tip of the ocean.

[Tatiana]

107. This is just the beginning. We have to get better leadership in the state Dem parties.

Either we invest in our candidates or we don't.

This will still be close once all of Sedgwick reports.

Thompson needed to run close to 60% in Sedgwick in order to win this.

[Me.]

108. "Either we invest in our candidates or we don't"

Right now apparently, we don't. We need better leadership all the way around. The DCCC attitude was absolutely ho hum.

[NYC Democrat]

109. Probably not gonna win this one but the closeness should make like 70% of Rs in congress cry

literally only 1/5th of districts are more R than this one on average. a mere 3-5 point win for the GOP here means an absolutely insane amount of GOP seats are at risk next year, more than enough to overcome their gerrymander.

[turbinetree]

112. Kansas (Whats is the matter with you?) Really...................

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4

[BannonsLiver]

129. Rural shitheels still run the show

As Americans, whether you live in manhatten or bumblefuck, Arkansas you are governed by rural shitheels who believe in talking bushes, etc. when that changes the country changes for the better.

[turbinetree]

132. I will not drive into Kansas, I will not support anyone

that has been whining about there education system, and was ordered by there court to fund more money into public education, because the individuals like David and Charles Koch do not pay enough in taxes to help support the public education system.

I will not drive into Kansas because I will have to pay a toll, to help some private-government organization make a profit off the toll, because this state paid this private consortium, that they borrowed money from to have snow plows working the road in the winter, for a fee for 75 year term to have there name on that toll road and bail them out because there government will not tax the people that have been given tax breaks again like the Koch's to help pay for the public road that was built the first time with public funds.


Kansas you have been RAT FUCKED and your trickle down economics have RAT FUCKED you, and now you are going to put someone in CONGRESS that will RAT FUCK everyone else because he will VOTE to support a TREASONOUS crime family in the white house, and when you see votes coming up on social security, medicaid, medicare, to be given to bankers and huckster and voucherized to give the same ponzi scheme you were warned-----------------MIKE ESTES doesn't give a RAT FUCK about you

[riversedge]

114. Ron Estes Republican 57,954 52.0% James Thompson Democrat 51,494 46.2

Kansas 4th Congressional District
Live Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control of House Seat in Kansas Special Election

By Wilson Andrews, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers and Adam Pearce April 11, 2017, 10:50 PM ET
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Ron Estes Republican 57,954 52.0%
James Thompson Democrat 51,494 46.2
Chris Rockhold Libertarian 1,911 1.7

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

[Ezior]

119. Huh, now 99% but Thompson actually lost some votes

At 94% reporting, Thompson was at 51,494 votes (as you posted and I had recorded the same number from the NYT live results)
Now at 99% reporting, Thompson is down to 51,467 votes while Estes is up to 60,945

How's that possible? Maybe there's something about US election results I don't understand? Or maybe the NYT put a wrong number somewhere?

[Grown2Hate]

115. From a THIRTY POINT LOSS, a couple of months

ago, to about a 5 point loss tonight, tells me a few things (as hard as it is for me to find "moral victories" when we need some fucking VICTORY victories):

1) In 2018, invest in EVERY RACE where we were within 10-15 pts in November 2016.
2) Run candidates in EVERY RACE in 2018.
3) Let's take back the fucking House.

[spooky3]

117. That's the way I see it, too. Thx. N/t

[Grown2Hate]

118. Right on.

[NYC Democrat]

120. Basically everything up to R +20 has potential to be competitive already, could get even crazier

by the time of the mid-term elections.

[Grown2Hate]

124. From your lips to Democrat's ears! EOM

[WomenRising2017]

116. Thank you Kansas Democrats

Outstanding!

[img][/img]

[MuseRider]

121. That is beautiful, thank you!

It is very hard here and even harder when we are always getting pounded by our own side. Thank you so much.

I am very excited by this. This is a huge thing here. Pompeo got it by 30 points? Estes by only 5 with an unknown candidate running against him in the big red district housing Koch? In Kansas.

Dorothy we are still in Kansas this is just closer to what it used to look like before baggers like the Kochs started working on us.

[WomenRising2017]

125. You are most welcome.

This was huge, and I'm so proud of the Kansas Democrats in their resistance movement.

Many kudos to you all. Keep resisting.

[riversedge]

123. lovely flowers for a great try.

[LaydeeBug]

122. He who casts the vote decides nothing. He who counts the vote decides everything.

I wonder if and when people will ever wake up to what they're doing and stop treating it like hyperbole

They. keep. doing. it.

[MuseRider]

126. I know that they have

new machines in that area, maybe only in Wichita that require 2 steps. It insures that if they need a recount there is a paper trail. Does that help a little? Now if we could just get an SOS who would allow a recount when we need it.

I do not know how extensive the coverage is of these new machines but apparently they solve the problem of depending on the machine you question to provide proof it did what you wanted.

[LaydeeBug]

131. they never will...and until we make them, this will keep happening

We'll lose in GA too.

Not because we'll lose...not because our system is broken...it's fixed.

[whistler162]

127. Georgia will be the next one....

and very interesting it will be.

Maybe Trump and Pence will do a robo call tailored for each of the 11 Republican candidates asking the robo callee to vote for <Insert Republican Name> instead of their competition.

[MuseRider]

128. I am excited to see how that turns out.

I hope better than here or at least as close. Harbingers are good things when you are as far down the rat hole as we are here in Kansas. Then Wyoming, correct? If the other 2 are good we should be in high spirits and ready to pound the R's next go around.

[whistler162]

130. Close Georgia then Montana and four more

https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_115th_United_States_Congress_(2017-2018)