Preliminary Polling Results- No Trump Bump

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


As an aside in the name of intellectual honesty I stand by everything I wrote in my previous thread including the italicized part:

I don't believe for a moment Trump was moved by the poisoned children. If he was he would be willing to take some of em in. I can more easily believe he did it to distract attention away from his myriad controversies and abysmal polling numbers. I can also believe that a limited strike against Assad for gassing his own citizens is an action a President Clinton, a President Sanders, or a President O'Malley could have taken. As an aside that is why the America Firsters are apoplectic. I can hold all those ideas in my mind at the same time.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10028910987

If he didn't get a bump from this tried and true method I don't see how any singular event can give him a bump.

[guillaumeb]

1. Trump is moved by his bottom line and his approval numbers.

All else is empty words.

[Warpy]

2. I don't expect those numbers to hold

because if they do, it will be the first time in history that military grandstanding hasn't worked to increase any leader's popularity, anywhere.

Nothing makes people rally 'round the flag and salute the hapless boob wrapped in it like starting a war.

[Squinch]

3. Yeah, but Twitler is the source of a lot of firsts.

[Warpy]

5. He is, but I will still be surprised because this is a massive first

War is the traditional way for a bad leader to consolidate his power.

If it doesn't work for Dolt45, he's sunk.

[Squinch]

6. I will too, and I won't believe it unless it holds for a week or so, but the press on this isn't

very good. There is enough talk in major outlets about "wagging the dog" that it may have gotten through.

Also, he has alienated a big part of the base he was talking about when he said he could shoot someone in the street and they'd stick by him.

He's tossed away some part of his 30%. The question is how big a part.

[anneboleyn]

19. Very true. Big parts of his base are outraged over this (and they are the YouTube Trumpers who

basically defended everything the idiot said or did) The Syria issue was always a big deal to them, they always opposed any action in Syria and believed the idiot when he claimed that he'd never get us involved in Syria, and from what I've heard (I don't want to spend time on YouTube or their various virtual basements reading their "thoughts&quot they are NOT happy. It will be interesting to see if the numbers hold, and if the part of his base that is furious over this remains that way.

[titaniumsalute]

4. I think people don't want war. Period

Remember Trump's populism helped proposal him to the White House. Isolationism, populism, MAGA, bullshit. Many of his supporters don't want wars anywhere.

[anneboleyn]

20. Yes. His supporters are VERY VERY into the isolationism part and believed him when he claimed

he'd never get us involved in another Middle East conflict.

[ismnotwasm]

7. He's the political equivalent of fumble fingers

That being said, I read an article blaming the media "pushing the Russian connection past the point of insanity" driving Trumps need "to prove his masculinity" --Like Trump isn't a grown-ass man who made his own fucked up decisions. It was weird.

[JHan]

18. fuckwit extraordinaire Glenn Greenwald made that argument..

dude should just delete his twitter account.

[ColemanMaskell]

8. Study shows that stuff like this does NOT usually bump the presidential approval rating.

From 538:

. . . according to a 2001 study by William Baker of the Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences and John Oneal of the University of Alabama. Their study found that only 39 percent of U.S. military interventions from 1933 to 1993 resulted in a rise in the president’s approval rating.
. . .
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-trump-benefit-from-a-rally-around-the-flag-effect-on-syria/

Another quote from the summation of the article:

Baker and Oneal’s study found that the average foreign policy entanglement results in an approval rating jump of just 0.1 percentage points. And during the Obama administration, the only event that produced any rally-around-the-flag effect was the killing of Osama bin Laden. And that effect lasted just a month.

One thing to keep an eye on going forward is whether the conflict in Syria, and U.S. involvement, escalates. As I noted earlier, that may ultimately determine where public opinion falls. Studies, not surprisingly, show the American people are less likely to support Trump’s policies if there are U.S. casualties — whatever they think of Trump’s initial airstrike.

[mountain grammy]

9. Frankly, I thought he would get a bump..

but, whatever, it's all the "news" is talking about.

[FakeNoose]

10. Kim Jong Un will do him a favor and start World War III

Actually any North Korean action could hurt Pootie & his boys a lot worse than us.
So this conversation should be put on hold for awhile. I think it's too soon to tell.

[progree]

11. If he gets a bump, it would be for 1 day. Because next day we read the airport is back in use

and Syrian planes taking off from it. Oh well.

[Still In Wisconsin]

13. Exactly right. You don't get a bump from blowing up some rocks in the desert. n/t

[ananda]

12. So it ends up being about Putin and money.

I understand 45 gained a big stock profit when Raytheon went
up after the strikes .. and that Putin could use this strike to
pretend to disapprove so that 45 won't look so "complicit"
with Russia ....

[malaise]

14. The vast majority of AMerica know he is a Con and

his base was against this not America first madness.
The only visible bump is his gut - looks like he's eating and tweeting.

[creeksneakers2]

15. Perhaps

Demoting Bannon hurt Trump among his Nazi base.

[OliverQ]

16. But it looks like he did get a bump.

Trump was at 35% approval on gallup last week. That chart shows 40% now.

[OldHippieChick]

17. IMHO he made the mistake of doing this bombing while so much else

is going on and people can hardly get hold of one thing at a time. Plus he did it over a weekend where any bump is now lost in the sea of people's busy lives and other news. He didn't wait for us to get whipped into a frenzy where we would welcome some act of strength. He also, obviously to most of us, did not realize this has been going on for years and he is just now starting to pay attention to the gravitas of his job. He is probably surprised his action did not make Assad tremble in his boots.