Good News at the Polls

[demwing]

RCP has two pieces of good news for Obama



1. Rasmussen's latest poll (which includes yesterday's responses) show Obama ahead of Romney. That hasn't happened since April.

2. The Average of Polls is solid blue. Romney is at his weakest point since April...of last year!

The real big deal is that Rasmussen had Obama down by 2 points yesterday, up a point today. This mean that Obama had a HUGE day in the Rasmussen tracking, seemingly laying waste to the message that the SCOTUS decision played well for Republicans.

Details:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

[uponit7771]

1. The spread in swing states is even greater, rMoney is in the high 30s in some swing states...

....and is getting his ass kicked on his Bain record.

The GOP is keeping a good portion of that 70mill a month they're raising for congressional seats, I believe someone already posted that rMoney isn't raising that much for his campaign alone

[nanabugg]

2. Ooooh, I want to hear more carping from the GOP. It only helps Obama. nt

[jimlup]

3. Most of these polls use running averages so it is probably too early to see the SCOTUS effect yet

Still interesting that Obama has finally edged ahead in Rasmussen.

[demwing]

4. That just it with Rasmussen!

On the 28th, the Ras poll had Mitt up by 2%. Those results only included up to the 27th. Today, the results include polling done on the 28th so Obama must have had a very good day to close out the average;

Example:

Sunday
R - 46
O - 44

Monday
R - 44
O - 42

Tuesday
R - 45
O - 43

(Here, Romney's 3 day average is 45, Obama = 43, Romney Leads by 2)

Wednesday
R - 48
O - 45

(Romney 3 day = 45.6 / Obama = 43.3. Romney leads by 2.3)

Thursday
R - 45
O - 44

(Romney 3 day = 46 / Obama = 44. Romney leads by 2)

Friday
R - 46
O - ?

(This would give Romney a 46.3 average over 3 days. For Obama to jump up in his three day average from 2 points down to 1 point up, he'd have to pull a 52.9 on Thursday!)

This is just an example. I don't know the details of what each candidate pulled each of the three days included in the average, but I can easily say that Obama must have had a VERY good day on the 28th, else he wouldn't have recovered 3 points overnight.

[aggiesal]

5. This is the only one I trust . . .

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

This checks the polls in every state and then determines who
will get the electoral votes.

[demwing]

11. Great link, RCP does the same

here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[Richard D]

6. Fox News!

Obama +5.
Wow.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Wake me up six to eight weeks before the General

That be August..that's when they start to matter.

[demwing]

9. Oh Come On!

Bask! Bask in the glow of a great week of polling!

Or not, go back to sleep, sorry I disturbed your rest.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Zzzz

(basic poli sci). By July trends will be cear, voters start paying attention eight weeks out, really do six weeks out. That's where internals and all that start to really matter. Before that, they're entertainment.

In fact this is one reason to shorten campaigns. That might increase voting.

[demwing]

12. Yeah, go back to sleep

sorry to bug you

[FarLeftFist]

8. BLOOMBERG! Great to see Romney not leading in any National polls.

[demwing]

13. More evidence that Thursday was big for Obama

Gallup just added to their three day polling

Yesterday Obama was up by 3 points, today he's up by 5! The new data includes polling done on Thursday.

I don't know if this bounce is sustainable, but it seems to be a legitimate trend. If the direction were in the reverse, you know the yapping faces on TV would be foaming about Obama's big fail, will of the people, blahbitty blah blah...