Sobering analysis: Republican screwing up doesn't automatically mean our gain.

[DFW]

Especially if their base thinks they can do no wrong, something our base knows is not true of anyone, including us.

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/the-democratic-party-is-facing-a-demographic-crisis/

[MountCleaners]

1. I'm not sure I buy it

It's good to look at yourself critically, but I do believe this country is changing. The silver lining is that Trump's presidency puts a spotlight on the massive protests, and some people can learn what dissent really means.

The author says that Trump gained ground with groups that normally vote Democrat. I suspect this support is very fragile and that those populations can be easily disillusioned.

[DFW]

3. I agree that those populations can be easily disillusioned

I am not so sure that a disillusionment with Trump will more votes for us, as opposed to complete voter apathy. Republicans tend to be more fanatic about causes that they ultimately don't understand, and end up supporting even if it is to their detriment. When they ask "what's in it for me?" they seem to accept any answer that they want to hear, whether it's a lie or not. That is a harder demographic for us to win over.

[lagomorph777]

17. Reputins don't ask "What's in it for me?"

They ask "How can I hurt somebody else?"

[Cosmocat]

13. This country is in a deeper hole that a lot here understand

We didn't wake up to something all that different on November 8th.

The Rs already had strangleholds on state governments and the House, and were basically 50/50 in the senate.

All that was actually new was they had a full on authoritarian POTUS to wrap it all up.

And, make no mistakes, had Hillary won, things would be EVEN MORE UGLY now, because the right would be in hysterics over her being POTUS, and someone was going to get killed had she actually tried to see at Supreme Court Justice.

Here is the math people don't get ...

This country is broken into 1/3s.

The 1/3 in the conservative fantasy world.
Our 1/3 that deals in reality.
The 1/3 that is apolitical or "third party."

That is pretty much how the election broke - 1/3 voted for 45, 1/3 voted for the sane, competent, decent person, 1/3 sat it out or voted for a clown.

What we are seeing now is mostly our 1/3 pulling our hair out.

The 1/3 in the conservative fantasy world are lost, Trump could get up tonight on camera and skull fuck a goat and they would support him.

The problem is the "middle" 1/3 that buys the "they are the same" bullshit. They either have one or two issues that told him into the republicans, or just truly believe that the evil liberal boogyman is the same, and frankly most often, worse than the sainted, patriot christian.

The last 30 years has been steady fascism creep. One step forward, two steps back.

So, yeah, BHO won and we saw some gains in 06 and 08, but only after W left the country in flames, they had to be THAT bad to take some loses. BUT, in 2010, for no god damned reason at all, this country saw fit to give them the biggest mid term gains we have seen in recent memory.

And, then for the next 6 years they did, literally, nothing other than engage in out and out sedition and the country was just fine with it, culminated in what we have now.

We are, literally, at the last stand here and face GREAT odds to even momentarily stop them at this point.

They have gamed the process countless ways electorally - gerrymandering, voter ID laws and other state ways to game things, they are constantly trying to get democratic states EVs broken up ... Media is in their bag and now is being marginalized in a way where those media outlets that are fronts for their party are being foisted as "real news' and what is weak ass mostly right leaning traditional cast as completely "fake."

The last stand starts this November and likely ends next November ...

Unless we beat LONG odds and get at least one chamber of congress ...

[Amishman]

2. the article is depressing and the trend line graphs frightening, but is it a trustworthy source?

I am not overly familiar with rawstory, are they trustworthy?

[DFW]

4. They usually try to get their stuff straight

It's not like them to post an article that is this much of a downer to Democrats. For them to run it indicates a desire on their part to put out a serious wake-up call.

[Amishman]

5. well shit, there goes my day

i think i'll have to stop at wawa for a breakfast sandwich to cheer myself up

[DFW]

6. I spent 5 years in Philadelphia

I got my BA, but never got a wa-wa breakfast.

[uponit7771]

12. The article 100% leaves out voter suppression and gerrymandering as all the bullshit articles do whe

... when it comes to dem loses in the last 6 years

We need a 10 to 1 ratio... hard work but not impossible

[joshcryer]

15. The problem is Dems are exceptionally predisposed to GOP voter depression.

Those graphs would be absurd if it wasn't, a matter of record, that the GOP simply gets their fucking deplorables out to vote. Oh, shit, I just triggered the deplorables. Maybe I'll get a third strike. By mentioning that anyone who votes GOP is deplorable. Fuck you pieces of shit assholes who vote GOP. You're fucking yourself and this great nation. Fuck.

Sadly, the Dems have had extreme problems countering this voter depression, mainly because there are a lot of Dems who actually shit on their own, who shit on the winner in a primary for example, causing people not to care or come out to vote for them. And the GOP takes advantage of that. A Dem primary candidate loses by a few points? That can translate to tens of thousands of votes in the actual election. It matters.

[Demsrule86]

7. Our base and if by base you mean those who ran away

because they didn't like Hillary will learn a hard lesson these four years...and the Gop can't get elected with just their base. Wave elections sometimes happen in midterms with unpopular presidents...but you have to vote D period...and quit looking for 'purity'.

[NewJeffCT]

8. some incorrect analysis

Smallest margin since 2000 if Clinton had won? Umm, how about 2004? Bush won the popular vote by 500,000 and then claimed he had a mandate.

Also, the decline in Democratic fortunes was due to Citizen's United and the vast sums of money Republicans invested at all levels. Meanwhile, the Democrats were being goodie two shoes and naive and banning outside money. The lack of money and crumbling Democratic parties at the state level is what caused the decline.

I'm also pretty sure that Trump did worse among Hispanics than previous Republican presidents, especially Bush. But, of course he did better with African Americans because there was no longer an African American running for president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Bush won the pop vote by 3,000,000 in 04.

But I have a lot of problems with that article. Two quickly come to mind. Choosing a favorable baseline is a disingenuous way to frame an argument and the way he compares shares of votes is misleading. The author argues Hillary's share of the black vote dropped. OTOH you could argue Trump received a lower share of the black vote than any major party candidate in history. The author also argues Hillary received a lower percentage of the Hispanic vote than President Obama. OTOH she received one of the highest percentages of the Hispanic vote when a person of color wasn't representing the Democratic party.

It's always fun to have fun with numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. How about leaving political science to political scientists and sociology to sociologists?

It's good to be skeptical. It isn't good to depress people.

[uponit7771]

10. "Their base" excuse to normalize Benedict Donald. "Their base" is not relevant the non voters are

[joshcryer]

14. We will never win back red/purple states without conservatives/moderates.

The Democratic Party must recognize this indisputable fact. Dean won in 2006 by electing Blue Dogs, many of whom loses in 2010 were cheered by the "left" because the purist left doesn't' know how to actually fight. They just know how to bitch and moan about shit that they are directly responsible for. So what that a candidate in a red state votes with the party 90% of the time. The only time that matters is the 10% which wouldn't have fucking passed anyway. Fuck.

Fuck.

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK.

WE ARE FUCKED.

TELL IT TO YOUR GRANDKIDS, BECAUSE WE ARE ENTERING CYBERPUNK/ULTRACAPLISTALIST/DISTOPIA, FOLKS

IT'S HAPPENING.

[flamingdem]

16. I wish it was Cyberpunk

cuz then we could escape into the computer world but we're far from that

[joshcryer]

18. Nah, look at the state of VR.

One or two more gens. This civilization is going only one way folks.

[Initech]

19. They could blow up a house, get a DUI and crash into a school bus full of kids...

And they'd still get reelected! It's fucking insane! We have to stop gerrymandering. It's going to doom us all.