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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Polls Differ on Trump's Popularity
February 20, 2017By Taegan Goddard
Nate Silver: Heres what we can say for sure: Its unprecedented for a president to face so much opposition from the electorate so soon. Recent polls show that anywhere between 43 and 56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trumps job performance. Even if you take the low end of that range, Trumps numbers are much worse than any past president a month into his term.
But beyond that, theres a lot of seeming disagreement in the polls about exactly how unpopular Trump is and even whether his disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating at all.
Whats the real story? The differences between the polls arent random, or at least they dont appear to be based on the relatively limited amount of data we have so far. Instead, Trumps approval ratings are systematically higher in polls of voters either registered voters or likely voters than they are in polls of all adults. And theyre systematically higher in polls conducted online or by automated script than they are in polls conducted by live-telephone interviewers.
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https://politicalwire.com/2017/02/20/polls-differ-trumps-popularity/
GusBob
(7,286 posts)voters vs non-voters
Makes sense nobody wants to admit their horse is a loser
If we could ease this sense of politics as a spectator sport ( principle before party) it would be a good thing
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)that many people who would support our candidates don't bother to vote. It pisses me off.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I fear we are nearing a point where apathy and suppression is dooming us to control by a rabid minority.
uponit7771
(90,363 posts)LAS14
(13,783 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,019 posts)appleannie1943
(1,303 posts)how can you get anything even close to the truth? I tend to believe phone polls to be more reliable.
Wounded Bear
(58,706 posts)not many groups bother to take the expense to do so.
So yeah, ignoring on-line polls is probably a good thing right now.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)In this election there were significant numbers of new voters on the right (part of the reason polls of "likely voters" were wrong. Now those people are counted as voters. In the next election we should benefit from a rise in left-leaning voters. Presumably some of the people who are showing up at town halls and the Women's March, etc., are people who sat out the last election but won't in 2018.
Pipe dreams? A real possibility? Something to hang our hats on?