Gallup: GOP Maintains Edge in State Party Affiliation in 2016
2018 could be a real bloodbath with more Democratic Senate seats in play than Republicans. Republicans could gain a filibuster proof majority in two years to give Trump absolute power.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/203117/gop-maintains-edge-state-party-affiliation-2016.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Republican states continue to outnumber Democratic states based on residents' party affiliation throughout 2016. Overall, Gallup classifies 21 states as solid or leaning Republican, 14 as solid or leaning Democratic, and 15 states as competitive. That seven-state GOP advantage contrasts with a 30-state Democratic advantage in 2008.
Although there are more Republican states, the Democratic states tend to be more populous. As a result, Democrats maintain a slight edge in party affiliation nationwide, 47% to 42%. This Democratic advantage, too, has declined considerably since 2008, one of the stronger Democratic years on record, when Democrats led 52% to 40%. That year, Republican President George W. Bush's job approval ratings hovered around 30% as the nation dealt with the worst economic problems seen in generations, while still engaged in two prolonged wars overseas.
Gallup's state party affiliation scores represent the difference between the percentage of Democrats (including Democratic-leaning independents) and Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) in each state. Including party "leaners" in this calculation helps ensure the metric provides a good indication of each party's strength in a state, because independents who express a party leaning typically vote for that party in elections.
States in which a party has a 10-percentage-point or greater advantage in party affiliation are considered "solid" for that party. States in which a party has a five- to nine-point advantage are considered "leaning" for that party. The remaining states, those in which the percentages of Republicans and Democrats are within five percentage points of each other, are considered "competitive." The full data for all states are shown at the end of the article.