Debby's course changed..coming right up thru Ala/Ga/No.Fla

[dixiegrrrrl]

Sat's prediction:
[IMG][/IMG]

Current forecast:
[IMG][/IMG]

[Aerows]

1. I'm worried about it sitting out there

in the ultra warm for this time of year gulf waters and moving slow. This is the fourth prediction of where it could go. One was east, one was west, now another is north.

This is one that we need to keep an eye on because there truly is no telling where it is going.

[SoutherDem]

7. I know. I live in Alabama so I have been watching it

I saw something today on weather.com which I have never seen before. Normally when you look at the projected track you see a curved cone, expanding as time passes (kind of looks like a tornado). But, Debby's was a big circle, not prediction as to which way it would move.

[dixiegrrrrl]

8. It is huge, it is moving slow and has changed course 3 times

according to what I have read on the news.
So no matter where it lands, other states will be affected to some degree.
I hate it when those things just sit there and dump tons of water for hours.

[malaise]

13. We should give thanks that it's June 24 and not August 24

Gulf Coast states could not handle this in peak season conditions - it would have made Katrina look like a baby.
Looks like Rick Scott may well have to call Obama for some Fed help before this is over.

[Aerows]

18. Not sure that distinction of date matters

The Gulf is already extremely warm. It's nearly 86 last temp taken near Mobile, AL. That's very warm.

[malaise]

21. Warm water is just one of the factors

that facilitate peak season

[Aerows]

14. I'm on the Coast

And the dumping tons of water for hours isn't nearly as bad as high tides and dumping tons of water for hours for us.

[Aerows]

12. I'm Southwest MS on the Coast

I'm keeping an eye on it.

[csziggy]

31. It reminds me of Hurricane Elena back in 1985

It stalled off Cedar Key in the northwest Gulf and dumped a lot of rain before turning to the west and hitting the Mississippi coast:



Elena's path was affected by a trough of low pressure (similar to what we have now) which turned the storm to the east. When the trough collapsed, Elena strengthened and turned west.

We were in the middle of building a barn that year and Elena drenched us and delayed construction for a month. Later that season, Hurricane Kate hit us directly but the partially roofed barn stood up to the storm just fine.

[socialist_n_TN]

40. My wife and I were on vacation during this one...........

We were going to visit family in Mobile and then had a motel booked in PC during that time frame. It was uncertain and nerve racking for a while and we wound up having to delay our trip to PC for a day, but we made it.

We actually bought Tees that said, "I survived Hurricane Elana." We were JUST talking about it right before I saw your post.

[csziggy]

46. PC and Mobile lucked out then and will now

Because they are on the west side of the storm, they aren't getting much if any rain.

We've started getting some wind from this one, though not the tornadoes they've had downstate. I hope we're lucky and don't get any bad winds!

[socialist_n_TN]

59. Since I grew up in Mobile, I've had a good bit of experience..........

with TSs and Hurricanes, following them on TV and in the papers and Elena STILL has the weirdest track of any hurricane that I can recall.

Good luck to y'all! Even a "mild" hurricane or TS is nerve wracking.

[csziggy]

60. We're just gettign tons of rain without a break

Kinda like when TS Fay came through in 2008 and flooded the Obama headquarters...

The worst of it is that all my joints ache with the low pressure.

[Swede Atlanta]

2. While I don't wish anyone devastation.....

living in Atlanta we need rain so if this comes our way hopefully we would get some rain out of it.

[whistler162]

3. Well DUH my brother lives in Huntsville now...

he is a magnet for this type of thing. He was in the DC area for about 6 years until last year.

[dixiegrrrrl]

5. I have a few words to say to your brother, in that case.

[whistler162]

54. Why do you think we

DREAD IT if he ever decides to move back to Central New York.

[dixiegrrrrl]

61. Before I retired, every time I tried to take a week off, something would happen.

When I was working in Seattle, Mt. St Helens blew up on the Sunday before I was suppoed to go to Eastern Wash for a week.
When I moved down here to Ala, we got 2 hurricanes, each on day 2 of my vacation,
( they were supposed to go elsewhere)
then I moved to SF and decided to take a week off on Sept. 10, 2001.
If your brother ever finds out how to remove the curse, let me know!

[HubertHeaver]

11. By all means, send him to central texas

We need the rain. The reservoirs are still well below where they need to be.

[Lochloosa]

4. It's not going North....it's coming right at me in Jacksonville. Trust a Floridian.

[dixiegrrrrl]

6. Indeed does look like you will get a lot of the eastern side.

[HooptieWagon]

41. I got the same hunch.

[RebelOne]

9. I am in North Georgia. We will welcome the rain. n/t

[malaise]

10. The really frightening part is that she is barely moving

and will be around until Friday - she's a weird storm.

[quaker bill]

17. Despite all professional opinion to the contrary

I have been predicting a wet year for FL for about 2 months now.

[malaise]

19. My worry for Florida this year

is hurricanes - they haven't been hit for some time

[dixiegrrrrl]

20. Oh noes..you said the "H" word!!!!!

Last one to hit where I live was in 2004. (Ivan)
and just this morning my brain went to the forbidden thinking place........

[Lochloosa]

23. Pensacola or PC?

[dixiegrrrrl]

62. The H word....

I was thinking how long it had been ....

[quaker bill]

65. Where I live, we went 30 years without one

then we had 4 in 6 weeks.

I will say it simply. In 1998 we cut funds for and laid off folks who fought forest fires. A few months later the state lit up like a roman candle.

For 3 or 4 years now, local government has been laying off the engineers and trades workers who maintain drainage systems, because funds were short and it has been fairly dry. This year we did an across the board layoff of 25% of the water management folks.

It will be a wet year, a very wet year.

[malaise]

66. The idiots here did the same thing as part of the orders from

the neo-liberal IMF goons...and then Gilbert hit Jamaica from Morant Point to Negril and the rest is history.
It never fails - there is a reason why we have specialist workers - they had long laid off all the engineers who maintained bridges, roads, drains, etc. They had even laid off the workers who organized hurricane shutters.

[quaker bill]

15. Well, it is about time

the better models had it drifting north to northeast for more than a day now, and the storms here have been running up the spine of the state for a day and a half now. If it was going west we would be drying out now, not so much.

[Aerows]

16. Please let it go somewhere where it is needed

We don't need it here on the MS Gulf Coast. We certainly don't need the high tides on top of it. Begon Debbie, and take your rain to Texas and Georgia where they will love you.

[Odin2005]

22. This is a HUGE system with lots of rain. Stay safe, everyone!

Do NOT underestimate Debbie just because she is "only" a TS. She is a very wet storm.

[malaise]

24. And more coming

Note that she's stationary again

[Scurrilous]

25. Hey, where did Florida go?

[HooptieWagon]

26. We're underwater.

[Odin2005]

27. Now she's stalled and going... completely NOWHERE!

[dixiegrrrrl]

28. Whaaaaa????

Seriously? New reports?????
Oh..never mind, found it.

at 700 PM CDT.
Debby has been stationary during the past several hours. Little movement is expected during the next couple of days...but this forecast remains uncertain due to weak steering currents.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next
48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 kmfrom the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been reported at several locations along the Florida Panhandle west of
Apalachicola during the past hour. Wind gusts to tropical storm force have been reported along the Alabama coast and also along the west-central Florida coast.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201204.public.html

[Odin2005]

30. The NHC needs to just come out and admit they don't have a clue...

...where Debbie is going. The models are all over the place!

[dixiegrrrrl]

38. Guess what? NHC DID come out and say they have no clue:

[IMG][/IMG]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/

[Odin2005]

50. ROFLMAO!!!

[dixiegrrrrl]

29. The barrier islands have to be underwater by now,with all that rain.

And Mobile and Pensacola were flooded just last..week? 2 weeks ago???

[OriginalGeek]

34. I saw a picture of Bayshore Drive in Tampa

earlier today. It's Bayshore river now.



I've been getting rained on for 4 or 5 days now.

[dixiegrrrrl]

35. If memory serves, Fla is only a few ft above sea level.

The flooding must be getting bad by now.

[HooptieWagon]

56. Height varies.

Some areas are low-lying and flood easily. Others not. I live in middle of St Pete, yet 50' above sea level. Never floods in my neighborhood, but we'd be on an island in a Cat 5 storm.

[Aerows]

36. Tampa/St. Pete

Looks like it is getting hammered. I lived there for years, and have a lot of friends there.

I hope everyone stays safe!

[OriginalGeek]

39. As bad as it is

I get nothing of the sense of apprehension like we had for Charley.

But I think we probably should be a little more concerned - it's been raining and raining hard for days - I live in Orlando so I'm higher up than the coasts but not by a lot.

I know a lot of our lakes around here were low so maybe they'll fill up and that will be good but not if they fill up too much...

[lpbk2713]

44. Here are some pics.

Note that most were taken during the daylight hours. It's gotten worse since then.
I'm in Lakeland. We've had a lot of wind and rain but no serious flooding ... yet.
I heard on the news that if Debby stalls this could go on for two more days.

Pics: http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2012/6/24/photo_gallery_damage.html

[dixiegrrrrl]

49. Gulp.....that is some flooding

Amazing in one shot that a car is halfway under water and yet a street light continues to shine.

[malaise]

53. Damn

That's a lot of water

[HooptieWagon]

42. Yes, Bayshore Blvd badly flooded.

Shore Acres in NE St Pete badly flooded also. Tornados reported to the north.

[Aerows]

63. Shore Acres, though

To be fair, floods with a decent rain. With this level of rain, though, I'm sure it is devastating.

[HooptieWagon]

64. Yes, it does flood with every moderate rain.

It really flooded bad yesterday. Several feet deep on streets. People getting around bu canoe. Went down last night with low tide. Probably not flooded today, no rain in St Pete today.

[malaise]

37. Poor Florida

...INTENSE SQUALLS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

[msongs]

32. so, anybody still complaining about the southeastern drought these days :-) nt

[aikoaiko]

45. Just a little...

...

[IMG][/IMG]

on a happier note, Lake Lanier is only 5 feet below normal.

[Auntie Bush]

33. That's a scary forcast. More than half of my family live in northern FL.

Most of my relatives live in Sarasota and north along the coast. I hope they will all be safe. Hope my silly grandson doesn't try to go surfing! lol

[Go Vols]

43. Looks like alot of rain

and not alot of wind.

Is expected on the coast.

[A HERETIC I AM]

47. I'm in Palatka tonight, about 50 miles S of JAX and the rain has been coming down sideways for the..

last two hours.

[dixiegrrrrl]

48. what's the windspeed?

Most folks not used to the South do not realize a slow moving tropical storm can be as devasting as a low level hurricane.

[malaise]

51. A slow moving TS is often worse

than a hurricane up to Cat2. In Debby's case, it's not slow moving - she's stationary and has not moved all night

[NutmegYankee]

52. I agree with malaise. The rainfall amounts can be very damaging.

The streets can flood, septic systems may back up, and basements flood. The heavy rainfall may weaken the soil and allow trees to come down to relatively low winds.

[HooptieWagon]

55. No basements here.

Lots of flooding along shoreline. Minor wind damage. 1 death in N Fl due to heavy surf, woman in Venus injured in apparent tornado.

[NutmegYankee]

57. I wish you well.

I'm on my laptop now because a strong series of thunderstorms just knocked out my power (Southeast Connecticut). Earliest estimate is noon for restoration.

[malaise]

58. So the question is - what is Debby and what is a new system East of Debby

[A HERETIC I AM]

67. The answer to your question of last night...... :#:# I 10 is shut down tonight for flooding :#:#

probably between 25 & 30 MPH with gusts up to 45.

It rained pretty solid all night in Palatka, but eased up around 9:00 AM or so. I drove back up to our yard in JAX today and went through bands of rain. Right now it is raining steady but not very windy at all.



%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

:#:#:#: Just mentioned on the 10:00 news in JAX that Interstate 10 is shut down due to flooding at the 301 Mile Marker. The I 75 interchange is @ the 296 MM and the end of I 10 in downtown JAX is the 361 :#:#:#:#:#

[malaise]

68. Look at the bands of rain

Stay safe

[dixiegrrrrl]

70. Wow..I 10 shut down.....

I remember from living in N Fla how heavy the summer afternoon rains were.
Cannot imagine what you must be getting now.

Be interesting to see how the insurance companies respond to the clean up claims.

[HooptieWagon]

69. Howard Franklin Bridge (I-275) across Tampa Bay closed a few hours ago.

Also Courtney Campbell Causeway, and the Suncoast Parkway closed. Gandy Bridge still open, for now. The Sunshine Skyway has been closed for two days. Many local streets and highways closed. Shore Acres flooded again this evening with high tide and stronger winds. Beaches all gone due to heavy surf and erosion. Bayshore Blvd in Tampa flooded badly again this evening. Not too much wind damage, but the water is pummelling us down here.

[snooper2]

71. Please head straight for Dallas with Lots of rain

PLEASE!!!