Those that predicted Trump would become president were just lucky

[Quixote1818]

I keep hearing about these folks that predicted Trump would win are these brilliant masterminds with their finger on the American pulse. I think they lucked out big time for a number of reasons.

a. Trump got crushed in the popular vote

b. He squeaked by in the rust belt with paper thin margins. Minus the FBI bullshit and the constant leaks from Wikileaks and Russia I doubt this would have occurred though I do think Hillary took the rust belt for granted which was a big mistake.

c. Typically unless the outgoing president numbers are extremely high the other party is given a chance, so if Hillary had won she would have bucked this trend. By someone taking the GOP side early is not going out on a limb, it's looking at historical trends.

d. The media gave Trump billions of dollars in free exposure.

e. Well documented voter suppression in several states that Trump squeaked by in. Even the NY Times ran stories on this.

f. Had someone been leaking Trump's emails constantly (Can you fucking imagine what is in his emails) or the RNC's emails!


The fact is, had just a few thousand folks in the rust belt switched their votes no one would be talking about how "brilliant" these folks are for predicting Trump would win. They just got lucky.

[treestar]

1. His "winning" was a fluke

It was unexpected. It must have seemed like a miracle to his supporters.

[underpants]

2. Don't forget voter suppression/CrossCheck

Especially in Wisconsin Florida and North Carolina.

[Quixote1818]

3. Thanks, I will add that. nt

[Cattledog]

4. If only 39,000 in PA, MI, & WI had voted HRC she'd be President.

[former9thward]

5. What is your definition of "crushed"?

Clinton got 48.2% and Trump got 46.1%. So a margin of 2.1%. I doubt people would be saying Trump "crushed" Clinton if the situation was reversed. Clinton's entire margin came from 5 counties -- L.A. county and the 4 boroughs of NYC excluding Staten Island. Yes the Trump predictors got lucky but this election is not what you paint it as. Democrats lost all sorts of races down ballot which was not predicted. The media did give Trump a lot of exposure but it was all negative. He only got one or two endorsements of all the hundreds of newspapers. He was attacked by every commentator I ever heard.

[Quixote1818]

6. I actually agree with you for the most part.

Obama brought out a lot more voters than Hillary. I think Sanders had a better message and would have excited the base more. He was certainly more in tune with the struggles of everyday people. Or at lest he knew how to communicate that he was. That is why guys like Schumer are attaching themselves to Sanders message now. They know he has the right message in the current environment.

I still think a series of things right at the end put it over the top for Trump though. He got very lucky because of the help from outside forces. I am just trying to point out that those who predicted Trump's win were not brilliant but mostly got lucky.

[customerserviceguy]

7. Trump played everybody that he could

I even remember Saturday Night Live taking his entry into the Presidential race as such a joke that they let him host a show, including (what they thought was) a parody of what would happen if he won. He played the media, sucking the oxygen out of the room so that his GOP rivals couldn't get any airtime. He kept his Twitter twits entertained and onboard with his outrageous pissing matches.

Anyone who underestimated Trump has been wrong so far. I would include the GOP leaders of Congress in that number. They think it was all fun and games yesterday, getting pens from him and his grandchildren, they are going to be shocked when he finds primary candidates to run against them in 2018 when he doesn't get what he wants from them. And they should realize that he can mobilize an army of Republican voters to throw out the Paul Ryans and Keven McCarthys in less than two years.

He's one of the most skillful manipulators we've ever seen in American history.