Keith Ellison: Wrong to think Trump creating bad conditions enough for Dems to win

[portlander23]

Claiming mandate, GOP Congress lays plans to propel sweeping conservative agenda
David Weigel
Washington Post

When the 115th Congress begins this week, with Republicans firmly in charge of the House and Senate, much of that legislation will form the basis of the most ambitious conservative policy agenda since the 1920s. And rather than a Democratic president standing in the way, a soon-to-be-inaugurated Donald Trump seems ready to sign much of it into law.

“What I told our committees a year ago was: Assume you get the White House and Congress,” House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) told CNBC in a post-election interview last month. “Come 2018, what do you want to have accomplished?” Negotiations with the incoming Trump administration, he said, were mostly “on timeline, on an execution strategy.”

“I think there was a unique benefit to Republicans in obstructing the Obama agenda,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who served in the House in Obama’s first term and arrived in the Senate in 2013. “In 2008, Obama’s entire premise was built on fixing Washington by ending partisanship. It was dependent on getting two parties to work together. Mitch McConnell figured out quickly that he alone held the keys to success or lack of success.”

“There’s no question we’ll see a greater number of people who are uninsured, more people who are unemployed and more kids getting low test scores,” said Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), a leading candidate for DNC chairman. “But if we think Trump will create bad conditions and that’ll be enough for Democrats to win, we are absolutely wrong.”

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. People need to start listening to Keith Ellison. The man knows of what he speaks... he truly is wise beyond his years.

Why he'll make an excellent DNC Chairman.

[DonCoquixote]

2. I would love to think they would

The problem is that Alan Dershowitz has spoken, and he has made damn sure to blow every Islam a phobic dog whistle he can. He has already threatened to leave the Democratic Party, which make no mistake about it is a signal for many Democratic donors who are pro Netanyahu, to do the exact same. As much as I do genuinely like Tom Perez, the fact that he was willing to go ahead and use antisemitism as a political football against Sanders, then turn around and use Islamaphobia as another political football makes me a little sick. Granted, I do think he could be effective, then again we really don't have anywhere to go but up at this point do we? It is my sincere hope though that Ellison is not sidelined, indeed I have lovely visions in my head of Warren/Ellison 2020. Yes I know I probably upset a few stomachs here, but honestly it's not like Hillary is going for a 2020 campaign.

[flamingdem]

3. He's unafraid to tell it

I'm liking what I'm hearing.

Bernie was right on this choice.

[stevenleser]

4. He is already wrong. Twice. That is exactly what happened in 1992 and 2008.

I have no doubt it will happen again.

[Crunchy Frog]

5. I think you are absolutely wrong, and Ellison is right.

Things have changed, even since Obama got elected. Republicans intend to rig things in such a way that the Dems will never regain power, and they've got the means to do it.

Complacency in our party will be its death warrant.

I didn't have a preference before, but the more I read, the more I want Ellison.

[stevenleser]

6. Except I am already right, twice, and Ellison is already wrong, twice.

You say things have changed.

OK, explain how. I am already right twice and Ellison wrong twice, so that is a burden you need to overcome.

[Crunchy Frog]

7. Party suicide.

That's a prediction. We'll see what happens. And no, I'm not going to waste any time "explaining" anything to you. I will say "I told you so" when the time comes. No one will be more grateful than me if I end up eating my words.

[stevenleser]

8. If you and Ellison are right, then Republicans have good policies that people like. Thats the upshot

If thats the case, apparently we are all on the wrong side so I am interested in hearing how you deal with that.

I'm quite sure that Republicans have awful policies the results of which people will not like at all. You and Ellison are arguing the opposite.

[Crunchy Frog]

9. Or alternately, they've managed to hijack the institutions of this country

to make them impervious to the popular will. In other words, something akin to a dictatorship. That's more where I'm coming from.

I don't really know where Ellison is coming from, other than (I'm guessing) that passive complacency is not sufficient for the Democrats to win.

I would also give Bill and Obama a little more credit for their wins, than saying that they were simply the passive results of Republican screwups. They were both extremely charismatic individuals who ran extremely effective campaigns, and sadly, did not have a whole lot in the way of coat tails.

Given how many states now have Republican governors and Republican supermajorities, would you conclude that state level Republicans have great policies that people love, or do you think that there are other explanations?

[stevenleser]

11. My contention regarding Governors and state legislatures is that too many Democrats undervote those

races. I can't tell you how many times I've heard people say "I just vote for Congress and the President and leave the rest of the ballot blank. I don't care about those other races" and almost everytime I hear that, it's a Democrat saying it. We just don't take those races as seriously as Republicans do.

I think this is a similar reason why we don't do well in the midterms. We have a certain percentage of our base that thinks only the races at the top of the ticket affect them. I've been trying to tell folks for years that more stuff that affects them on a regular basis happens at the state legislature level than in congress or the White House.

[Crunchy Frog]

18. Dem party organizations haven't made it a priority, while R ones have.

Republicans turning out for elections doesn't just happen spontaneously, or because Republican voters are more civic minded. It's an organizational success of the Republican party apparatus, and a total failure on the part of the Democratic party. A failure that will turn catastrophic should the R's end up controlling enough states to start passing Constitutional ammendments.

I want someone heading the DNC who understands this, and understands the stakes involved, and will put in the work needed to organize the party to begin reversing these losses, and move us back away from the brink.

Your suggested approach will lead to party suicide for the Dems, and the R's being able to enact their entire agenda, with nothing to stop them.

[dionysus]

13. Well steve, bush maxe things lretty shitty, but that wasn't enough to make kerry win.

[stevenleser]

14. Which, as I noted in my #12 below, is a separate issue. nt

[Jim Lane]

10. The closest analogy is 2004 -- and Ellison is right.

It's been hard for either party to hold the White House three terms in a row. Since the FDR-Truman sequence, it's happened only once (Reagan-Reagan-Bush). After those three terms, Bill Clinton benefited from the "time for a change" feeling, which also helped Bush in 2000 and Obama in 2008.

The better analogy to 2020 will be 2004: Republican candidate who lost the popular vote nevertheless became President and did a lot of bad right-wing stuff in his first term. In light of Bush's record, Kerry deserved to win, but he didn't. One term's worth of Bush malfeasance wasn't enough.

Anyone posting on this board will be horrified at the prospects for the next four years. Ellison is warning us against the trap of projection -- of assuming that millions of voters will see what we see and will react to it. His point is that it won't happen automatically.

[stevenleser]

12. That's another issue. The power of incumbency. Sure, even a bad President tends to win reelection.

That may very well happen. But that is a different point than Ellison seems to be making. 'W' won reelection too as you note, but was polling in the high 20%s at the end of his final term.

[Jim Lane]

15. I guess we're reading Ellison's comment differently.

My interpretation is: Yes, Trump will do a lot of bad stuff, but that by itself won't guarantee a GOP defeat in 2020. I'm not clear on what your interpretation is.

You're correct that Shrub's popularity dropped in his second term. To me, that's cold comfort. I don't want to have to wait until the 2024 election to recapture the White House.

[LenaBaby61]

17. Republicans intend to rig things in such a way that the Dems will never regain power...

Which is WHY I don't have a lot of hope for Dems doing well in 2018 or in 2020 (GE & redistricting years), another year of redistricting. Then you throw in a tRumputin DOJ who'll further gum up the works for Dems and voting, and the works are already pretty gummed up to the point of the gum turning into STONE. I didn't even mention a tRumputin DOJ who'd turn a blind eye to more ruskie cyber-hacking because they may also be getting blackmailed by them as well. The ruskies not only have 'things' on tRumputin (taxes and more), but they also have 'things' on the GOP as well.

We're in big trouble unless something truly "magical" happens, meaning we have no more voter suppression or cyber-hacking or tampering in our elections by a foreign entity.

I like you would love to be proven wrong in 2018/2020, but I don't hold out much hope for a Dem renaissance anytime soon.

[RBInMaine]

19. White flag waving never helps. Get out there and DO something about it.

[andym]

16. If there is no recession, then Trump and the GOP have an excellent chance to add to their power

in 2018 and 2020. Basically, many states are gerrymandered at the local level such that the GOP has 2/3 of the statehouses/governorships. It's pretty difficult to undo the gerrymandering without being in control- a Catch 22.

The removal of the safety net will be pitched as saving the programs and too many citizens are likely to believe the GOP spin. The GOP has indoctrinated at least 50% of the country to conservative pro-Reagan, anti-government values. See this post for a selected list of Gallup polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2665801 showing how many people like the anti-tax, anti-government GOP pitch.

The real question is whether Ellison or anybody can do anything. The GOP has executed a very clever plan at the local level that will be especially difficult to reverse in the era of fake news and Citizens United. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016164776

Perez or Ellison will have their work cut out for them. I would love to hear their detailed plans.