Put Trump and China In a Cage Match and Who Wins?
No, I am not speculating. The match is on. Trump threw the first punch when he called Taiwan. China responded with a show of military strength over the South China.
Who decided to pit Trump against China? It was Putin’s idea. Putin needs to continue selling Russian oil to its biggest customer, China. If China becomes energy self-sufficient, Russia goes broke—again. The way it was at the collapse of the USSR, when the Soviet leaders were tossed out of office. If Russia goes broke, Putin will be tossed out of office---and he likes being Czar for Life. So Putin came up with a plan. Get the U.S. and China in a cage and make them fight. Make the South China Sea so hot that China cannot drill for oil. Set the Sea on fire and watch it burn.
That show of military force was a bad move, and it could have ended badly for China, giving the U.S. an excuse to increase its provocative military presence in the South China Sea. But then someone in China decided to stop flailing around wildly and use strategy instead.
http://fortune.com/2016/12/14/why-gm-ford-might-get-slapped-with-a-fine-from-china/
Shares of U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford Motor Co. skidded on Wednesday after a Chinese official warned the government could slap a penalty on an unnamed U.S. automaker for monopolistic behavior.
The warning from a senior Chinese state planning official, conveyed through the official China Daily newspaper on Wednesday, came days after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump questioned the longstanding U.S. policy of acknowledging that Taiwan is part of “one China.”
Trump’s rhetorical challenges to long-established policy toward China have rattled U.S. corporations. Relying on stable U.S.-China relations for more than 40 years, the companies have ramped up sales in China and developed complex supply chains that feed Chinese-made parts to their U.S. operations.
Touche, China! How will Trump respond? The auto industry that he promised to save is now threatened because he is acting like a dick in order to prop up the price of oil. Russian oil. Is that good business? No. Is that good politics? No. Can China hit him---and the United States---again and again right where it hurts? You bet.
So, who wins if you put China and Trump in a cage match? Putin. Who loses? Anyone who works for a U.S. firm that does business with China.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/14/china-threatens-to-cut-sales-of-iphones-and-us-cars-if-naive-trump-pursues-trade-war
“If Trump wrecks Sino-US trade, a number of US industries will be impaired. Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Global Times claimed any new tariffs would trigger immediate “countermeasures” and “tit-for-tat approach” from Beijing.
“A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. US auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the US.”
http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/A-China-economist-told-us-how-China-could-hurt-the-US-in-a-trade-war-1001576652
The Trump administration could launch trade actions against China's steel sector under the WTO or otherwise, to try to put pressure on China to negotiate trade restraints, but the outcome of any such negotiations would be highly uncertain as Beijing has many options for possible retaliation. For example, China can replace Boeing jets with Airbus and US soybeans with those from South America. A trade war will also jeopardize progress with the US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty, which is currently under negotiation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/world/asia/if-donald-trump-pushes-on-taiwan-how-china-could-push-back.html
Chinese analysts say China has plenty of leverage to retaliate against Mr. Trump. One prominent target is Boeing, whose Seattle plant Xi Jinping, China’s president, visited in September 2015.
In 2016, Boeing is expected to complete plane deliveries to China worth $11 billion, mostly 737s that have become the workhorse of China’s rapidly expanding airlines. The Global Times warned that it would be easy for China to switch orders to Boeing’s European competitor, Airbus.
“On economic issues, China has more and more leverage,” said Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. “If we feel he is still pushing the Taiwan issue, we will take action. If he wants to keep it up on Taiwan, it will only backfire.”
American trade officials worry that China could intensify its discrimination against American technology firms by using the country’s antimonopoly laws. Last year, the Chinese government slapped a $975 million fine on Qualcomm, a San Diego-based chip maker, for what it said were licensing infractions.
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