Cuban-Americans in Florida are now voting for Trump; many angry at Obama's policy on Cuba

[davidn3600]

If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins Florida, as some polls predict, and goes on to win the Nov. 8 election — a big if, but not an impossible outcome — he might have President Obama to thank for lending him a hand in the final stretch of the race.

Obama’s Oct. 14 decision to further relax the U.S. embargo on Cuba by allowing American tourists to bring back unlimited quantities of Cuban rum and cigars, as well as his Oct. 26 decision to abstain for the first time in a United Nations vote against the U.S. embargo on Cuba, have probably pushed many undecided Cuban Americans in Florida to vote for Trump.

“Cubans return to Trump,” read a sub-headline of The New York Times Upshot/Siena University poll released Oct. 27, which gave Trump a four-point lead in Florida. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was leading in the same poll only a month earlier.

The poll’s explanatory text by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn said that Trump’s surprising comeback in Florida — the most important swing state — might be thanks to Cuban American voters. Trump’s support among Cuban-American voters in Florida was at 52 percent, up from 33 percent in September, the story said.

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In conversations with many Cuban Americans, I found that even among those who cautiously support Obama’s normalization with Cuba, many say he’s offering too many concessions to the island’s dictatorship without getting anything in return. Resuming diplomatic relations was OK, they say, but why keep making unilateral gestures in the absence of any political opening on the island?

http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/shift-among-cuban-american-voters-could-deliver-florida-to-donald-trump/


This shift also likely assures Marco Rubio is going to get re-elected to the Senate. Practically every single poll in Florida shows Rubio winning.

[dhol82]

1. Fuck!

[Dawson Leery]

2. This report says otherwise.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

[ismnotwasm]

5. Right. Rubio is Obama's fault.

If the state of Florida is lost, its Obama's fault.

Is that what I am supposed to believe here?

[davidn3600]

9. It's not lost, but it's going to be very close

For the White House, it's going to be a dead heat. Democrats have only a 7,000 vote advantage in Florida early voting. That is down considerably from 2012. Republicans tend to win turnout on election day. So they will close that gap.

Unless there is significant party cross-over voting going on, Florida is going to be close. That's what I am saying based on the early voting data, the polling numbers, and being a resident of this state for over 25 years. Will it matter? Maybe not. Hillary is looking strong in Nevada's early voting and might be able to cut him off there.

But anyone suggests Florida is in the bag is delusional. The author of the article in my op is only suggesting if the race is razor thin, the loss could be blamed on Obama if those Cuban-Americans voted for Trump due to the Cuban policy.

For the Senate...
Every single poll has Rubio winning. He's obviously the favorite to win that seat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_murphy-5222.html

[ismnotwasm]

15. I'm not suggesting anything

I find the "blame Obama" implication ludicrous

[davidn3600]

18. It's an opinion

Trump was getting only 33% support from this particular group of voters in September. Now it's at 52%. The major change between now and then was Obama's recent moves on Cuban policy. So the author suggests there is a connection and that the needle shifted in Trump's favor with these voters because of that. That's the opinion.

[Blue Idaho]

28. In logic class we call that false equivalence.

But carry on...

[Jim Beard]

24. I understand full what you are saying.

Obama has really helped trade and travel to Cuba. We also have a lot of boomer age retires who are more republican than the Great Generation.

[Island Blue]

6. So they're voting for Trump,

the man whose biggest cheerleader is Vladimir Putin, a communist dictator? That makes a world of sense.

[manicraven]

14. and Trump who violated the Cuban embargo, too.

[billh58]

7. You forgot the part about the

e-mails, and the birth certificate.

[jmowreader]

8. Cuban-Americans are the only reliably-Republican Latino population

At the 2010 Census, there were 1,213,438 Cuban-Americans living in Florida. (On Google, search for "Florida Cuban American population; it shows up at the top of the window.) Six years later...oh, let's be generous and say the number is a million and a half.

Doing a Google "population of Florida" search gives you a 2014 count of 19.89 million.

Now for the big problem the GOP has: Castro's people ran off Fulgencio Batista in 1959. The people who lost property to the Communists are going to be Republicans for life. The Cuban-Americans who have never actually been to the island are smart enough to realize two things:

(1) normalizing relations between the US and Cuba will help the Cuban people - not the ruling junta, but the man in the street - and
(2) Donald Trump has no intention of normalizing anything.

[kevinbgoode1]

12. But I thought Trump violated the embargo himself in order to do business down there. . .

wouldn't that have an effect on those Cubans in Florida who supported the embargo?

[jmowreader]

21. The pro-lifers are ALSO heavily breaking for Trump

Even though he has a rather strange history as a pro-lifer...

A VERY large number of Trump's supporters are willing to overlook the fact the bastard's campaign slogan should be changed to "do as I say, not as I do" for one reason: he isn't Hillary Clinton. To them, that He Isn't Hillary Clinton overrides that He Isn't Competent, He Isn't A Good Businessman, He Has No Clue What the President Actually Does, He Has No Ideas besides Overturning the Last Eight Years, and the only "white house" Donald Trump needs to go to has "United States Penitentiary" over the front door.

[Takket]

23. Great plan!

"I'm going to completely fuck over the life I worked so hard to build for myself here because I'm upset about concessions Obama is making to the island I escaped X number of years ago."

That's lucid!!!!!!!!!!!

[Awsi Dooger]

25. I think Cubans will prefer Trump by 5-10%

Natural reversion to midway between their long term heavy Republican tilt and the slight favoritism toward Obama in 2012.

[RandySF]

26. Makes no sense

How long ago did Obama announce this? Why would they "shift" now?

[vdogg]

27. There are plenty of polls that say otherwise...

[Lotusflower70]

30. Makes sense

The older generation will but not the younger generation. They don't have those memories associated with Cuba that the older people do.

[Coyotl]

31. Right wing opinion piece, shouldn't be on DU.

[DonCoquixote]

32. The sad fact is

Many of these assholes will be the first to try to make money off of Cuba, and use it to try another Bay of Pigs, though they can just use the Macri/Rouseff model now.

and as far as this?

"Resuming diplomatic relations was OK, they say, but why keep making unilateral gestures in the absence of any political opening on the island?"

Because we literally have been trying to starve the Cubans into submission for more than 30 years. It is also because for all their Communist talk, they have been eager to open trade. Would you rather The Chinese stepped into that vacuum, because if they do, we can experience a long term kneecaps to the economy (just imagine China using Havana and sidestepping most Atlantic and gulf Ports)

As far as Rubio, blame the Florida Democratic party aka those reliable jobbers, who cut 16 million of funds from Murphy, abnd blame the same Cubans who let Trump treat Marco Rubio like a racial stereotype "little Marco."