2018

[SHRED]

In response to one of my other posts someone mentioned that 2018 will be tough for Democrats in the Senate to hold seats.

I'm curious why.
Is it that we have more seats becoming open in vulnerable states?
If we do have a Blue wave this cycle I am not understanding why we may be have trouble holding on in 2018.

[blm]

1. Get control of the Senate NOW.

Yes, too many dumb Dems don't vote in non-presidential elections years and too many dumbed down Republicans do.

[uponit7771]

2. More dem controlled seats up for grabs in red states IINM, I think Sanders operation will be full...

... bore by then though

[Wounded Bear]

3. Couple of things...

1. Yes, there will be more currently Dem seats than Repub seats up for grabs. Not sure how many will be contested just yet, but you can be sure the Repubs are looking now to see who is vulnerable.

2. Historically, mid term elections tend to see a pulling back from the President's party.

3. Voter turnout tends to be lower than Pres election cycles, and historically, lower turnout tends to favor Repubs.

As soon as '16 is in the bag, it wouldn't be a bad thing to start looking ahead to '18.

[muntrv]

4. See 2010 and 2014 elections.

[Moostache]

5. I understand the gist of this thread...mid-terms are important, granted...BUT

This is also part and parcel of the problem with our current system...it's a perpetual campaign machine.
The horse race is dead, long live the horse race!

Screw actual "governance", that shit is boring and hard...let's keep the horse race going in perpetuity!

I guarantee that on election night, not more than an hour after the projection of Hillary as the 45th president is made, the talking heads and gas bags on TV will be discussing "what comes next for the GOP?" and running down a list of "potential 2020 challengers" to President Clinton.

I have seen this trend get worse and worse and worse ever since 2006 and now I see rumblings of the GOP asshats starting to suggest that they will filibuster ANY Clinton SCOTUS nominee as well? On what fucking grounds? That she is a big meany-pantsuit?

The government of the United States of America is supposed to be of the people, by the people and for the people...well, we the people are indeed a sorry lot if THIS is the best we can do...

[unblock]

6. easiest high-level way to see how difficult a senate season will be is to subtract 6 years

so the people trying to get re-elected in 2018 are the people who got elected in 2012, when obama won re-election with a bit of comfort. rmoney was surprised, but it certainly wasn't a razor-thin victory.

so in 2018, some of those democratic senators who won close contests of their own with the benefit of obama's coattails will struggle in a low-turnout midterm election.


similarly, we're widely expected to pick up several seats this year, which is awesome, but we will have a tough time defending those gains in 2022. but that's a worry for another day....