General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCould Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise
Last edited Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:06 PM - Edit history (2)
The longer it takes to turn is the bigger the threat to Jamaica, Cuba and the US mainland.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/173801W5_NL_sm.gif
Response to malaise (Original post)
kestrel91316 This message was self-deleted by its author.
malaise
(269,063 posts)Now we have to wait it out until Sunday/Monday.
At lunch time I went in the yard to speak with a plumber and the birds were making an unbelievable noise. I told my neighbor and the plumber to get ready - they are way ahead of us.
Thanks kestrel91316 - we may suffer some inconvenience - compared with the poor and homeless, we're the lucky ones.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)esp.since I saw that turn.
malaise
(269,063 posts)and we know that no laughing matter. This poor fugging island cannot take a Cat 3 hurricane. We will survive - sure inconvenience will follow - this is really bad news.
mfcorey1
(11,001 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)as the storm approaches to prevent people from electrocution but I'll let DUers know asp.
Waiting to see if Jim Cantore has landed
US Embassy just announced that it will be closed Monday and Tuesday.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)and he's always right
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)He was begging people to leave New Orleans and I mean begging.
malaise
(269,063 posts)NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)Well played
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)Damn
Here's Masters' take on next week
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3452
malaise
(269,063 posts)literally
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)annabanana
(52,791 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,459 posts)about this one. Look out.
malaise
(269,063 posts)It is going to be hit
Hekate
(90,714 posts)Seriously, I hope everyone in the region stays safe.
canetoad
(17,169 posts)https://earth.nullschool.net
Global map of world winds in (almost) real time. Click bottom left 'EARTH' for options such as mean sea level pressure, waves etc.
Stay safe.
malaise
(269,063 posts)from DU - magnificent
Lochloosa
(16,066 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)Gonna duck
mfcorey1
(11,001 posts)Lochloosa
(16,066 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)Everyone loves it
Lochloosa
(16,066 posts)annabanana
(52,791 posts)dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)Ms. Toad
(34,076 posts)but not in the path of a hurricane. Both are destructive, but I don't have a clue how to predict hurricanes (or assess how accurate the projections might be).
I'm headed to Cozumel a week from today - it looks as if it (1) will be somewhere north of there by then and (2) not likely to get near it. Is that likely to be accurate? (I expect the timing is slightly more predictable than the path?)
Lochloosa
(16,066 posts)After that it a crap shoot.
Warpy
(111,277 posts)Matthew will be past the area and the wave currently SW of the Cabo Verde Islands might not amount to anything.
If you are in a multi floor concrete hotel, you will survive but you might get wet and have to sit in the hall, away from windows.
What always surprised me the most about every hurricane I've been in is how LOUD the damned things are and it lasts for hours.
NOAA is usually the most accurate projection. They've gotten really good at it in recent years.
malaise
(269,063 posts)WhiteTara
(29,718 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)1939
(1,683 posts)but "October Surprise" and the "Karl Rove Weather Machine" make for good CT speculation.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Obviously the Islands should brace themselves.
malaise
(269,063 posts)No deaths
HipChick
(25,485 posts)and I need to get up to the North of the island
malaise
(269,063 posts)mcar
(42,334 posts)For the islands and the FL coast. Stay safe, my friend.
malaise
(269,063 posts)Thanks mcar
suffragette
(12,232 posts)Good thoughts to you and yours.
malaise
(269,063 posts)I'm amazed at how many people don't take these hurricanes seriously.
We went to the market and more than a few folks were planning to blow the storm away through prayer.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)"in Jesus' name".
She appeared quiet convinced that would work, until her husband, who was filming the oncoming tornado, dragged her to the basement.
OnlinePoker
(5,722 posts)He got a call from someone in Oklahoma complaining that their internet was down. When he brought up the status page for the area, it indicated there were tornadoes around there and he relayed that to the complainant. The guy said "Yah, I can see one out across the field right now". My friend had to tell this person to hang up the phone and get into shelter immediately. Some people lose all common sense when it comes to serious weather emergencies.
malaise
(269,063 posts)when cell phones and the internet stop working. I think many will walk the street gazing at their blank phones with blanker faces
malaise
(269,063 posts)One plans to rebuke the storm
suffragette
(12,232 posts)I still remember an old post of yours about salt eggs
I see downthread that it's already become much stronger.
to you, my friend.
Are_grits_groceries
(17,111 posts)I know you are always prepared. We study the weather like shamans looking for small portents.
Always have.
malaise
(269,063 posts)We're as ready as we can be.
annabanana
(52,791 posts)and check in now and again..
And if you lose power, check in as soon as you can!
Baclava
(12,047 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)eyewall forming
malaise
(269,063 posts)We've done what we're supposed to do - will put up the shutters on Sunday.
Nature rules - we have to work around her.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Good luck and stay safe!
malaise
(269,063 posts)and took pictures of our beautiful trees. I remember all the trees that fell during Gilbert - they return in full in about seven years.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)We lost a favorite and quite old oak tree during Ivan.
It was at the edge of my driveway and covered both my front yard and the neighbor's front yard.
One day I watched a hawk glide thru the branches, just missing the squirrel he was after.
Really quite sad it was gone; I love these old oaks.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Just in case
malaise
(269,063 posts)Yep - water, beer and white wine are chilling or freezing - we've filled the house with fresh fruit
OnlinePoker
(5,722 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)That's a healthy cane
malaise
(269,063 posts)OnlinePoker
(5,722 posts)From tropical storm to cat 4 in under 24 hours.
malaise
(269,063 posts)Where is Jim Cantore? ABC Florida is on their way.
I wish them luck because I swear that Palisadoes road to Norman Manley airport will be the first casualty.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)coming off Africa.
Usually that is not done.
Wondering if it is our turn to meet all those over heated storms this season.
panader0
(25,816 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)and our South East coast
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Don't trust the cone at this point - these things take on a life of their own when they get this strong
US East Coast on alert for potential impacts from Hurricane Matthew
malaise
(269,063 posts)now a fugging Cat 5
BumRushDaShow
(129,127 posts)and hoping for the best for you!
They are thinking it may turn out towards Bermuda before it gets this far up the coast but will monitor in any case. It's been bad enough around here with that Low sitting off the coast of MD/DE/NJ. It pumped over a foot rain so far in parts of Delaware today.
Ex Lurker
(3,815 posts)GFS is showing Matthew as a Category 5 raking the east coast next week
malaise
(269,063 posts)this has never happened - I fear for Port Royal, St Thomas, all of the Kingston waterfront and Portmore, Then I fear for those squatting in the mountainsides and hills for we're expecting 8-24" of fugging rain and hurricane winds. If Kingston gets a direct hit, there will be a massive loss of life. That Palisadoes road to the airport is on my mind.
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From Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3453
The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthews dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)ReRe
(10,597 posts)... you and yours (and all DUers in the path, for that matter) batten down your hatches and then high-tail it out of there to parts west and north until it passes out of your area.
malaise
(269,063 posts)ReRe
(10,597 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,459 posts)malaise
(269,063 posts)now Cat 5
B2G
(9,766 posts)At that latitude.
Looks like it's going to start an EWRC. I'm seriously getting concerned for you Malaise.
malaise
(269,063 posts)I'm concerned for the poor and vulnerable - there will be a massive loss of life and property
malaise
(269,063 posts)and they can't handle a Cat1.
Bumping this thread because it may well be an October surprise
malaise
(269,063 posts)Rain moving in on us as well- mild compared with Haiti
OnlinePoker
(5,722 posts)They've been hit by two Cat 4's in the past, Flora in 1963 and Cleo in 1964, both coming ashore on the south-western peninsula.