The Danger Of The Johnson Campaign

[eniwetok]

I can understand why oppressed groups engage in identity politics but the danger is that they then may place issues of economic justice on the back burner. And for that reason I fear is too many millennials will be attracted by the libertarian position on drugs and other social issues and ignore how dangerous and irresponsible his libertarian economic positions are.

[Jim Dandy]

1. He didn't make the debates

That makes even the remotest hope for victory impossible. That should lower his profile a little.

[eniwetok]

7. Neither did Nader...

And yet....

[closeupready]

23. "and yet" Gore STILL won, if it hadn't been for the Bush v. Gore decision.

Gore gave up, Dems failed to support him, and we got a Republican president, as a result.

[eniwetok]

25. why are you absolving our antidemocratic EC?

In a democracy any citizen has the right to run for office and any citizen has a right to vote their conscience. The problem here is we have a doubly defective electoral system. First the EC weighs the votes of citizens differently depending on state residence... so any vote in Bush's FL lead weighed 1000x that of any vote in Gore's national lead.

We also don't have instant runoff voting. No doubt the vast majority of Nader's voters would have picked Gore as a second choice.

We can't blame citizens for what they do in a defective system IF WE'RE ALSO REFUSING TO REFORM THOSE DEFECTS.

[Orrex]

2. I'm concerned. Very very concerned. Super-concerned, in fact.

I can't tell you how concerned I am.

[eniwetok]

6. care to explain?

Of were you being facetious?

[Orrex]

8. All else being equal...

it seems vastly more likely to me that Johnson will leech more votes from Trump than from Clinton. I have seen nothing to persuade me to the contrary. In 2012 Johnson took less than 1% of the overall vote; while that might be quite damning in a tight contest in which all else is equal, I'd need to see evidence that he's going to draw from Clinton's supporters in statistically significant numbers before I'm willing to freak out about it.

Comparisons between Johnson (who's so far-right that he approaches caricature) and Nader (a tireless anti-corporate, pro-populist advocate) are ridiculous.


So yes, I'm being facetious.

[eniwetok]

10. Quinnipiac disagrees... so you SHOULD be worried

In 3 weeks Hillary's lost 17% of the 18-34 age group and Johnson has gained 13%. And they are not going to Stein.

4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of
today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein?

AGE IN YEARS 18-34
Clinton 31%
Trump 26%
Johnson 29%
Stein 4%

SOURCE: https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09142016_U27xtpb.pdf

3 Weeks ago

6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?

Clinton 48%
Trump 24%
Johnson 16%
Stein 11%

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08252016_U88mxwn.pdf

[Orrex]

11. Thanks, but I don't panic when told.

4. If the election for President were being held today,

I hate to break it to you, but the election is not being held today, so the question is meaningless.

6. If the election for President were being held today,

See above.

I don't understand the push to panic that we're seeing here, simply in response to polls of varying and dubious quality, and especially when so much of the campaign has yet to play out.


Panic helps no one except those who dispense the clickbait in the first place.

[eniwetok]

13. Hey YOU were the one who said...

"All else being equal, it seems vastly more likely to me that Johnson will leech more votes from Trump than from Clinton. I have seen nothing to persuade me to the contrary."

The "leeching" process you mention does NOT take place in Nov... IT'S A PROCESS HAPPENING NOW

So I presented the evidence from a very credible source that young voters ARE being "leeched" away more from Hillary than Trump and you reject it.

I think concern is more warranted than your complacency.

[Orrex]

16. Well, give it a week, and the polls will have flipped 180° again

Bottom line, I'm not interested in freaking out because poll numbers tell me to. If that sort of display satisfies you, then knock yourself out.

Interesting that you equate complacency with "failure to panic." I take nothing for granted: the election could easily go to Trump; but panicking over poll numbers isn't going to change that.


But hey, if it makes you feel better, I'm totally, totally concerned.

[eniwetok]

18. so in other words...

I'll leave you to your contradictions.

[Orrex]

21. They're hardly "my" contradictions

Contradictions are the essence of reality, in a political campaign as much as anywhere else.

Not my fault that you prefer a more simplistic view

[eniwetok]

24. sorry...

Contradictions, perhaps, are the essence of your version of reality... and seems to be a consistent theme in the few of your posts I've read. I can't waste my time dealing with your rationalizations.

[chillfactor]

26. nor can I...

waste my time on your nonsense.

[Orrex]

28. If they aren't the essence of your reality, then you're not living in reality

I understand that you want things to be cut and dried and easily presented on a spreadsheet, and if you deliberately limit your vision to poll numbers then I can see why you'd favor that view.

Frankly, I don't give a shit. Everyone in this thread recognizes your shtick and no one finds it convincing or impressive.


See you in November, if you're still around by then.

[MH1]

3. They don't realize that drugs are the only way they'll be able to get through life,

once libertarian economic positions take hold.

I would expect Johnson to appeal more to republi-cons. The Bernie supporters I know aren't f*cking morons, after all. Some are still obstinately refusing to vote for Hillary, but many have come around, and I believe more will. Still, "I won't voter for HER!" does not translate to "I'll vote for the guy who is against everything Bernie stands for".

On the other hand, people have shown me polling data that demonstrates that all logic and common sense is out the window, as it appears Johnson draws more from potential Hillary voters than potential Trump voter. But then, we knew all logic and common sense is out the window in this election, anyway.

Regardless, I think you shouldn't be TOO concerned. The only places where Johnson poses a threat is states that are very close. He won't draw enough vote to make a difference in most states.

[eniwetok]

5. Who knows what's close these days...

Hell, a few weeks back Rachel Maddow was mocking the Trump campaign for pursuing a single electoral vote in Maine that is somehow separate from how the rest of the state votes. And on one of today's talking head shows... someone mentioned that this one vote might make a difference for Trump.

[demmiblue]

4. In the immortal words of KG, "I lulz'd." n/t

[JI7]

9. young people are supporting Clinton

In fact even before Sanders officially dropped out they saId they would support Clinton.

[eniwetok]

14. sorry... that's yesterday's news...

Here are the Quinniapiac numbers from 3 weeks ago and a few day ago.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=8171956

Something has to explain how the race has so tightened in the past few weeks and this is a big reason. We either deal with it or bury our heads.

[Gothmog]

12. A vote for stein or Johnson is a vote for trump

[eniwetok]

19. as is every Dem voter that stays home n/t

[Gothmog]

22. GOTV will be critical

[roamer65]

15. I think keeping him out of the debates is a mistake.

This is a very "anti-establishment" election and he will now be perceived to be "anti-establishment" by being excluded.

He's going to surge in the polls, but I do think he is going to hurt Drumpf more than Hillary.

[eniwetok]

17. but that's not happening

Here are the numbers showing Hillary, not Trump, losing the most young voters

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=8171956

Which is why we see articles like this

"Can Clinton Win the Kids Back? New polling shows the Democratic nominee is losing support among millennials to third-party candidates. So she’s turning to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for help."

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/clinton-millennials-sanders-warren/500165/

Of course by merely posting what the Clinton Campaign already knows... some here will accuse me of either

1: defeatism
2: should be posting this to a GOP forum

I'm glad they're not running Hillary's campaign. To be so smug or complacent is to lose.

[eniwetok]

20. THIS is why we need Instant Runoff Voting

If we had instant runoff voting (IRV) we could worry less about Johnson or Stein voters who wanted Hillary as a second choice. But sadly, I don't believe any state has considered this reform and on the federal level... states with as little as 18% of the US population get 52% of the seats in the Senate which has to approve any amendment.... and states with as little as 4% of the US population can block any amendment.

The US is stuck with an antidemocratic system that is essentially reformproof.... and NO ONE is talking about it... not even all those liberal Dems who wear democracy on their sleeves.

[Agnosticsherbet]

27. It is not just economic Justice.

Check out Libertarian Johnson on his Environmental Policy. It is written in Code, but, basically, the federal government has no right to tax corporations or make any regulation that hinders their free market capitalist approach. For them, the private sector can fixt the environment, and that is just crazy talk.