IMO This election boils down to one thing.

[busterbrown]

Wether or not The Clinton Campaign can get the same coalition of voters out to vote on Nov.8th as Obama did in 2008...

For the most part,...There is no way in hell, that anyone who voted for Obama in 2008 is going to jump ship and vote for trump this year..The problem is that they might sit out the election in such substantial numbers that it will spell major trouble on election day..

This means the Clinton campaign must pay close attention to these groups who might choose to remain home.Specifically millennials and Blacks.. I don’t believe for a second that the Clinton campaign is slacking in this area in the slightest manner.. They are smart enough not to take these groups for granted under any circumstances..and in fact will be very successful in getting these voters out come election day.. Especially with M and O’s enthusiastic support!

My point the current polls showing Trump winning Nationally and in certain swing states will mean very little by the time Nov 8 rolls around..

538 Today has Clinton’s chances of winning at close to 60% and Trump at 40%.. Not Great..but pretty good....Lets all hope and pray...

[asuhornets]

1. Please explain your statement below...

"This means the Clinton campaign must pay close attention to these groups who might choose to remain home. Specifically millennials, Blacks and Hispanics" WTF?

[busterbrown]

3. Corrected.. Watching MNSBC this am..

Had the number 1 Black Radio Host on and he was very adamant that.. that so many of his listeners feel so disaffected, that they might remain home.. Their attitude.. Nothing will change under Hillary..

[daligirrl]

5. Does this person have a name?

Blacks, Muslims and Hispanics view Trump as an existential threat. I have seen virtually nothing spoken on this site about the record numbers of new minority voters registered to vote in this election. I am an AA and The Black community is all over this.

[MyNameIsKhan]

2. It seems the problem is 18-35 demographics (AA, Latino, White, Asian everyone)

Bernie is going to three universities in Ohio today, Warren as well.

Needs some convincing to do but they will come home.

[kcjohn1]

4. Obama coalition fell from 2008 in 2012

Even if Obama was on the ballot he would have hard time replicating same turnout in 2012. GOP has structural advantage in that their voters almost always turnout out. What makes it worse is that this cycle after 8 years of Dem rule they are extremely motivated (doesn't help that they also hate Clinton + all the racists have blatant candidate to vote for). The bitter truth is people come out to vote for change, not keep the status quo especially among the young.

Dems should be counting their lucky stars that Trump is on the ballot vs a generic GOPer. If anyone else except Trump was on the ballot this would be a blow out for them.

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. Demographics are changing and population is increasing

While Republicans have voter registration advantage in some states, Democrats have overall advantage, turnout differential is offset by new voters (very eager to vote) to a certain degree.

We have to agree country is changing, it is about 55-58% democratic leaning this time. The issue is how many of them will come out and vote (LV). Many people just simply do-not care.

[busterbrown]

7. I highly doubt that Cruz, Rubio, Walker etc would be a blow out.

Especially because it was their type of conservative economic policy which caused the economic disaster and the disastrous Iraq war..(which Clinton apologized for and stated that she believed the lies of the Bush Administration)

[MyNameIsKhan]

9. In current polarized state, blow-outs will be rarity. Even with Don the con he is getting his base

The is key is turnout as described in the post

2008 - 62.2%
2012 - 58.6%

Differential is 3.6% and if you look at Obama vote share they kind of overlap.

Pollsters are projecting about few points drop in turnout like 2000 turnout model and hence LV issues.

[uppityperson]

10. Hi, how did you find DU? I'm always curious about that.

[DesertRat]

14. Apparently took a wrong turn

[uppityperson]

15. Awww, poor darling.

[no_hypocrisy]

11. HRC has to do this:

Make sure that the 2008 Obama voters go to the polls (and not stay home like 2010) and to not vote for third party candidates in protest.

[MyNameIsKhan]

16. All she needs is 2012 voters with changes

2008 election was historic, here is voter turnout data:

2008
White: 76.5% of total electorate
70% of Registered AA voted
65% of Registered Whites voted
50% registered voters who are 18-29 voted
35% registered voters who are less than high school (Trump vote bank)

2012
White: 74% of total electorate
68% of Registered AA voted
60% of Registered Whites voted
40% registered voters who are 18-29 voted
35% registered voters who are less less than high school (Trump vote bank) -> This is expected to increase in 2016

What pollsters are finding is the segment of population "Deplorables" were not excited before and did not vote, so the assumption is increase in white and "less than high school" voting population. So it is absolute essential we get to 70% of AA votes. This is the key.

Rest will be covered by demographic changes.

[ananda]

12. Clinton's got this!

But without the Senate, what can she do?

Are the Dems doing everything possible to win the Senate?


Sadly ....

[busterbrown]

13. Stopping Trump is our first priority.

He is a threat to humanity.. Clinton gets in.. It will be much more difficult for republicans to obstruct.

Senate is in play..but it’s gonna be tough!