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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHello self-driving cars, goodbye 4.1 million jobs?
Hello self-driving cars, goodbye 4.1 million jobs?There will be delays, setbacks, and gruesome accidents. Some people will call for putting an end to this. And others will refuse to get into those cars. But this is happening.
Wolf Richter
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hello-self-driving-cars-goodbye-41-million-jobs-2016-09-15
By Shawn Langlois | Published: Sept 15, 2016 5:43 p.m. ET
When the self-driving-car revolution firmly takes hold, there will be carnage, according to Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog. Not the car-crash kind though that is a prevalent fear but on the employment front.
The magnitude of this problem is breathtaking, he wrote. Citing government figures, he says that 4.1 million jobs (the stat of the day in our Need to Know column) are at risk, including chauffeurs and drivers of trucks, cabs and ride-share vehicles.
These people cant easily switch to writing software. Theres no room for them in manufacturing. Even the fast-food sector is getting automated, as are many other jobs, including writing stories for the major wire and news services, Richter said. It all might be happening faster than society is prepared to deal with it. And were not even talking about it!
The potential savings will outweigh the human cost, as companies fight for profit margins, he explained. Drivers are one of the biggest expenses for transportation companies. And they have to sleep and take vacation. Not so with their autonomous replacements.
~ snip ~
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)Can we find jobs for millions of unemployed former drivers? Cashier jobs are going away. Robots can replace a lot of stock workers for retail as well.
So what are they going to be retrained to do? How do they stay alive while being retrained? How much more will be needed in social services? Jails? How many suicides will there be?
We need to wake the fuck up NOW and look at the complete picture. Will auto autos make life overall better or worse? Will the lives saved outweigh the lives lost or sent into hopeless destitution?
radical noodle
(8,013 posts)Farmers thought tractors and combines were great inventions, but it put a lot of farm workers out of work. On the other hand, farmers became able to feed more people because of it. I admit I never do self checkout at any store because I know it's a way to put employees out of work.
Sen. Walter Sobchak
(8,692 posts)Here's to a hundred years of missed trains and missed planes, being stranded late at night, scams of every description and customer service that makes the cable industry look like JetBlue.
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)Should these awful driver people that hurt your fee fees be rounded up into camps as well?
Why do you want people to be destitute?
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)You appear to believe that the steady march of progress, of science, or technology can be contained or even denied. By it's very nature, it cannot, regardless of the petulant irrelevancy of internment camps.
Science progresses, society adapts. Period. We have no choice in that... all we can do is attempt to perceive as many consequences as possible and from that, mitigate as many negative social and/or financial results as much as possible.
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)It seems that hardly anyone is attempting to "perceive as many consequences as possible and from that, mitigate as many negative social and/or financial results as much as possible". And if they
There is almost NO TRANSPARENCY with what is going on right now. There are almost no safety standards and laws. Almost no ethical vehicular behavior standards and laws. Infrastructure improvements And no consideration of the broader impact to society and the economy of the loss of SO MANY JOBS.
We need to have a national, an international conversation now about the full spectrum of issues, not just "It's the future. Shut up and accept it".
snooper2
(30,151 posts)Where we can't just release the plans for cheap plentiful clean energy due to the fact that the World economies would collapse, people would be destitute, wars would happen? Huge changes in society have to be rolled out very very slowly...
Sen. Walter Sobchak
(8,692 posts)But the taxi industry as we know it can't die fast enough.
I hate taxis because I travel, a lot and from right here in the US to countries without functioning governments they're universally awful and for the same reasons and they have only had the last hundred years to get it right. Not even the existential crisis that is Uber and thousands of idled has meaningfully changed anything. They still suck and would rather draw on political graft to oust the competition than trying something radical, like not sucking.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)hand-scrawled on a piece of cardboard?
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)And a human driver would drive down the road anyhow, killing everyone.
Humanist_Activist
(7,670 posts)All the cars have to do is drive slightly better than people in most road conditions, then insurance companies are going to demand they be part of preferred, low cost plans, making them, eventually, the default for most car owners.
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)My core point stands. We need to talk about this technology, and the MASSIVE ways it can and will change the core foundations of our modern existence.
Is there a reason society, the public at large, should NOT have the conversation? Is the point "It saves lives, rich people want it so they can get richer, shut up and don't bother them!" what we should be focused on?
Humanist_Activist
(7,670 posts)talk of basic minimum incomes are slowly trickling away from just speculation.
But we are talking about a culture shift, from what it means to have a job or career to how it would be paid for. Tough ideas, but the solutions aren't to throw sabots at the cars, they are just one part of the issue after all.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)94% of all automobile collisions are human error. In the million-plus miles of early, imperfect, prototype autonomous vehicles they had a questionable responsibility in just 5.6% of their collisions, the others being entirely the fault of human drivers. 5.6 is a lot less than 94, no? Only you and your FUD doomer ilk are tilting at the windmills of perfection for nascent technology (but not, hypocritically, for humans, since you have never suggested they be subject to a review of all possible ethical dilemmas and have an absolutely flawless level of control in all situations to be allowed to drive). The sensible would just like fewer than the 38,000 deaths, billions in damage and the millions of hours of delays caused by human drivers. Better is the only standard that matters, and that's a pretty low bar to clear.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)CK_John
(10,005 posts)Driverless 101.
RadiationTherapy
(5,818 posts)The potential for traffic mitigation alone is enough reason to explore these options. Vehicles don't have to be fully automatic all the time, but to be able to communicate with other vehicles for hundreds of yards in order to detect, predict, and disburse traffic jams in systematic ways seems to be of enormous potential value to the economy as well as quality of life.
The2ndWheel
(7,947 posts)enable the traffic when we built more and bigger roads.
It's always interesting to see what consequences pop up after we do this or that. All this future automating of more daily tasks will result in some good things, and there will be some inevitable downsides as well.
athena
(4,187 posts)we would implement good public transportation systems. And if we really cared about reducing traffic jams, we would not be driving the way we do. The reality is that Americans like to sit in traffic. If they didn't like it, they would have fixed it long ago, like the rest of the civilized world.
Calculating
(2,957 posts)Truly autonomous self driving cars are probably 50+ years away still. Just another panic mongering article.
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)50 years from now, from the reactions I am seeing, it will be illegal for humans to drive.
It is 99% ready now. As we speak, test versions are rolling the public roads in Pittsburg, California, Michigan. In predictable road conditions, it is amazing how it can keep position in relation to other cars, providing appropriate braking almost every time. The tech can read traffic lights and road signs and lane markers and spot obstacles, potholes, etc.
Over the next 10 years, they will gain most of the rest towards being better than the best human drivers.
My personal existential crisis: I have skills to help that happen. To help it be better and safer. And I can make a lot more money than I currently am. But I also see the problems it can and will cause. Do I save lives, make new friends, and get paid? Or do I go on a Quixotic quest to remind people that we are going to have to change a lot of the foundations about our economy, our legal system, and our social norms because of this massive change?
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)almost a million folks, drivers and those in related fields, to look for work.
No hours of service violations. No accidents from sleepy over-stressed drivers. No 36 hours of caffeine binged driving straight without a nap. every truck would be in use every day, all day. far more profitable for the companies.
Initech
(100,102 posts)progressoid
(49,999 posts)http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/07/machines-create-more-stem-jobs-than-they-destroy-study-says
Robots wont just take jobs, theyll create them
https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/robots-wont-just-take-jobs-theyll-create-them/
Technology and Automation Create, Not Destroy, Jobs
http://www.innovationfiles.org/technology-and-automation-create-not-destroy-jobs/#disqus_thread