Could Trump actually win this election?

[Cyrano]

There aren't enough undereducated, biased, and just plain ignorant people in this country. And add to them those who are looking forward to profit off of his "policies": weapons manufacturers, Wall Street investors who buy up stocks in the "war" industry, bankers who fund wars, and so many others.

My answer to the question is that Trump can't and won't win. And I believe it's because America doesn't have enough profiteers, ignorant people, or haters.

Maybe i'm wrong, but that's my opinion. What's yours?

[liberal N proud]

1. Always campaign like you are 10 points behind

Even if you are 50 points in the lead.

[HassleCat]

2. Very possible

America may not be the nation we think it is, or would like it to be. Many people are vulnerable to Trump's campaign of fear.

[oswaldactedalone]

41. Yes

Too many dummies around.

[japple]

79. I never thought GW would win in 2000, but it appears that Gore won and

GWB was installed. Now how did that happen?

[Arkansas Granny]

3. The polls are so close that it really scares me. The electoral vote count looks better, however,

and that's the one that counts. I would love to see a landslide.

[GoneOffShore]

7. Come down off the ledge and look at 538.com

Nate Silver has been right 98% of the time on the last 2 cycles.

[Jerry442]

17. Nate says Hillary's got a 69.6% chance of winning.

That's the odds of surviving two rounds of Russian roulette. I need better news than that to sleep well.

[a kennedy]

69. She's now at 64.3% chance of winning.......

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[a kennedy]

73. and today day she's at 63.6%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[chelsea0011]

77. CAnd this is what is starting to scare me. Her lead is eroding.

I get it that she has been sick but for the month before she has been allowing Trump to dictate the news. And Trump is doing it again with a policy speech on funding his "plan". HRC needs to start firing back and in abig way.

[a kennedy]

78. NOW, only this afternoon she's 60.8 % ! ! ! !

What the hell happened JUST TODAY???

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[a kennedy]

80. NOW she's at 60.3%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[a kennedy]

83. 60.0%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[Maven]

4. That's what I would have thought about George W. Bush

I know, I know, he didn't actually win. But he came close enough to steal it, and I remember that was almost as shocking as the theft itself.

I think Hillary will trounce him, but I don't take anything for granted. The voting population of this country is easily manipulated by media, and media has been propping Trump up from the beginning. So as another poster said, we have to keep campaigning like we're 10 points behind. GOTV.

[Cyrano]

11. Bush won because Fl was rigged and Jeb was his brother

However, no Republican governor is going to go out of his way to deliver votes to Trump. They hate him. And they are not about to help him steal the election.

[Maven]

20. Rick Scott is the chair of Trump's Super PAC and Pam Bondi...well, we know her story.

They are dirty to the core and I don't think they'll hesitate to tip the scales in Cheeto Dick's favor any which way they can.

[napi21]

53. You're partly right. But his re-election is the one that got to me. I still don't know how

so many American people are THAT stupid. They SAW what he was, and re-elected him anyway.

[edhopper]

59. maybe not

Rove made sure the stole Ohio, without that, he lost. But to bad it took Katrina for most aamericans to see what he was.

[dishatin]

64. Don't Your Remember Swift Boating of John Kerry and Elizabeth Edwards - J ed

Bush was 're elected' due to the duo who ran against him, John Kerry and John Edwards. The Viet Nam swift boater Kerry and
John Edwards did himself in by keeping a Mistress and Child that eventually went public. In addition, Karl Rove evildoer sent to every home in America a big cut out of two men getting married on top of a wedding cake. Scared a bunch of close-minded voters.

[GoCubsGo]

21. Yep. Not just once, but twice.

This after his sleeping through (at best) the warnings that led to the worst attack on this country in its history, and after starting two wars. And, that was without Russian hackers threatening to disrupt things, although I strongly suspect that the 2008 election was stolen through hacking.

[world wide wally]

5. My question is: How can the media side with this asshole and his asshole supporters?

[rug]

6. No.

America's gag reflex is intact.

[beaglelover]

8. Absolutely! It's terrifying to even think about!

[Daemonaquila]

9. Absolutely, positively, he can, and Hillary (and we) should be expecting it.

P.T. Barnum once said that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. These are the same people who elected Bush... TWICE. If Hillary and Dem/anti-Trump voters and activists do not understand that there's a clear and present danger of the shit-throwing orangutan sitting his ass down in the oval office and getting the nuclear launch codes, there's some serious underestimation going on. Everyone, from the candidate and the campaign, down to individual voters, needs to expect that Trump can and WILL win if Hillary doesn't run her campaign just perfectly, and if we don't GOTV. Sorry, but we are closer now than we ever have been to living in a fascist state. The Basket of Deplorables is pulling out all stops, legal or not, ethical (joke!) or not, to win this race.

[pepperbear]

30. CORRECTION: Bush was appointed by SCOTUS the first time, elected the 2nd. Just had to clarify. n/t

[Daemonaquila]

68. Makes no nevermind, in practice.

Yes, he was. The result was that he "won" the election. He was able to "win" the election because of the slim margin. Hillary's camp should take that as a dire warning, and play to decimate Trump, not just squeak by.

[meaculpa2011]

39. That was H.L. Mencken. n/t

[Amishman]

10. Not a chance

The more reliable polls still favor us and think they are still under sampling younger voters.

I was worried about PA but I am seeing a lot more support around here in the past week.

And we have favorable moderators for two of the three debates. Get that fox news goon replaced and we are pretty safe for the debates.

[tandem5]

12. Running a 5k or running from zombies: never look over your shoulder and run faster!

[kentuck]

13. To be honest...

I don't know.

We only have a percentage of our citizens that vote. Trump appeals to a lot of FOX-trained voters. Both candidates are dishonest and cannot be trusted, so therefore, might as well vote for the change.

I am not confident that Hillary will win this election. Win or lose, our country is in for some hard times ahead, I fear. The Deplorables will not accept Hillary as a legitimate President, just as they did not accept Obama as President and the House and Senate, if they go along with Trump's agenda, will be a threat to our democracy. The 2nd Amendment people will be in the streets.

The media has created a monster and they cannot "un-create" it.

I am very anxious about the election.

[megahertz]

14. Lots of "reality TV" addicts and celebrity-followers who will likely vote for him.

I think many of them will vote, motivated by pure entertainment, like they think it'll be fun or cool to have a president like that. The pull of celebrity is strong. I do think he'll pull in people who have not voted before.

Not sure of their numbers overall, but I don't live in a blue bubble, so my view is a little cautious.

That said, I think Hillary will win.

[ecstatic]

65. I love reality tv, and sadly, even watched The Apprentice

because I do love to be entertained...but never in a million years would I consider voting for an incompetent, hateful clown like Trump.

[lunatica]

15. He's also woefully lacking in electoral votes

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2016/09/trump_or_clinton_-_whos_winnin.html

Hillary has 201 strong electoral votes and 68 in Democratic leaning states. That gives her a high probability of 269 electoral votes (not counting the 73 votes that are a toss-up)

Donald Trump has 148 strong votes and 43 in red leaning states. That gives him 191 votes. If he gets all the toss-up votes he will have 264 votes.

He's way behind.

[Egnever]

18. 73 state toss up is a good trick

😅

[lunatica]

22. Thanks! I corrected my error

[Egnever]

16. Anything is possible

Not at all likely. But then a airplane could fall out of the sky onto Hillary's head, not very likely but it could happen.

I would lay his chances of winning in about the same ballpark as the chance of the plane landing on her head.

[melman]

19. Of course

[lpbk2713]

23. Almost anything could happen.

But it's not necessarily likely.

[misterhighwasted]

28. Lol..I'm borrowing that!

Weeee!

[Koinos]

54. So, Trump has wings and can fly? I didn't know that, but it is a great deplorable likeness.

Yes, Trump can win. Deplorable things, perpetrated by deplorable people, have happened before.

[Guilded Lilly]

24. I believe Hillary will win the election...

both the popular vote and certainly the electoral vote.

But we still have to be real. We HAVE to vote. We have to treat trump's supporters with, if not respect for their lack of class and character, respect for the power of their votes.

Intelligent choice only wins if you ACT on it. When it counts.

I'm with HER!!!
Wholeheartedly.

[Xolodno]

25. Ahem....

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.

[Rocknrule]

72. Or the ability of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

I haven't forgotten 2004. I have no doubt that there are way too many American voters who will vote for Trumpler at the end of the day because "he seems like the kind of guy I'd like to have a beer with"

[LanternWaste]

26. It's mathematically possible, but highly improbable. My bookie gives him 25/1 against.

It's mathematically possible, but highly improbable. My college bookie gives him 25/1 against.

Republican primary voters are simply not representative of the wider electorate; he is an historically unpopular candidate and will motivate opponents to turn out; his campaign is catastrophic, showing no sign of a general election pivot; he is failing to unite his own party; the electoral college is increasingly weighted against any Republican; his air and ground games are negligible compared to Clinton; and most importantly, the business community sees him as a buffoon who would be unable to temper his language vis-a-vis the economy, setting up wide swings of volatility Wall Street hates.

[misterhighwasted]

27. NO.

[OriginalGeek]

29. The trumpets in my sphere are absolutely convinced he will win

And they relish being the "deplorables". They think they are finally the little guy sticking it to the man. The man that wouldn't let them say the things they always say anyway.

[Different Drummer]

40. It's the same in my area. n/t

[underpants]

31. A week from today the poll numbers will give us a good idea

of what effect Hillary's episode had.

[AngryAmish]

32. Have you ever ridden a bus?

Of course he can win. Americans are a pretty gross bunch.

[DrDan]

33. I was heckled here because I expressed the idea that rand paul had a chance in his senatorial bid

I was told - "no way he could beat any Dem" accompanied by some unseemly comments

Can trump actually win? You better believe it. I agree that he probably won't, but refuse to say he can't win.

[Angel Martin]

34. It's possible Trump could win.

When 60+ percent think the country is going in the "wrong direction" and less than 30 percent think the country is on the right track, that's always dangerous for any candidate seen as "more of the same".

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html#polls

the Pew poll shows an underlying pessimism that people have about their own situation compared to similar people 50 years ago, and even more pessimism about their children's future. Again, potentially dangerous for the candidate seen as the "incumbent".

http://www.people-press.org/2016/08/18/clinton-trump-supporters-have-starkly-different-views-of-a-changing-nation/pp_16-08-17_politicslede-2/

Trump has certainly not made the sale. But he has toned down his "wild man" act a lot and he is getting closer.

[Loki Liesmith]

35. Possible but improbable

[romanic]

36. It is possible yes.

Trump has pulled in this alt-right group and the GOPers who hate thier established party which would no doubt vote en masse.

Question is, are Democrats young and old going to do the same. We can't complain and say the sky is falling if we don't vote on election day. Just saying.

[Calista241]

37. Very possible.

My concern is that Wikileaks could release some stuff that really affects the election. Or...

And Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama, and I don't think she's going to drive people to the polls like he did. Obama drove the largest turnout in a centuries, if not ever, largely based on his personality and drive. I question whether Hillary Clinton has that same draw.

I think as long as the lead isn't 10 points, we're in serious danger of a Trump presidency.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

38. Hell yes. 538 give him about a 30% chance. N.T.

[Warren DeMontague]

42. He's a longshot, electorally but...

I hate to say it, yeah, he could.

[bigwillq]

43. Yes, Trump can win.

He pretty much has a 50-50 shot.

And, yes, Hillary can win.

She pretty much has a 50-50 shot.

Stein, Johnson and the others will have little impact on the race, imo.

It will be either Trump or Hillary. It's a matter of who will do a better job of getting their message to resonate and who will do a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

[Imperialism Inc.]

44. There seem to be a lot of people voting third party.

I don't get it but if enough people decide to express their beef with the status quo instead of thinking things through he could win.

[treestar]

45. He can't

In spite of the M$Ms efforts, there are not enough people that hateful. Right wing white people, basically. They are not a majority in any fashion. The same boneheads who voted for Bush. And the fact the mainstream Rs can't stand him won't help him. There are plenty of even Rs who won't vote for him.

[malaise]

46. No n/t

[trof]

47. 76 year old friend. EE degree. Retired airline captain. Not ignorant.

EE=Electrical Engineering

He will probably vote for Trump.
Hates Hillary.

[milestogo]

48. If we don't get out the vote he can win.

I am always amazed at how good the Republicans are at getting out the vote, even for shitty candidates. Democrats, on the other hand, don't always vote. Even if someone hates Trump - if they are lukewarm about Hillary, they might stay home. Its really important that we drag people to the polls on November 8.

[Skittles]

49. throw in misogyny and Hillary Hatred Hysteria

anything could happen

[democrattotheend]

50. I think he could

I am sorry to say it but I think he could. His base of support is smaller but motivated. If too many of us don't show up or vote third party Trump could win.

[spanone]

51. they never thought the brexit vote would go the way it did....but i think not.

[radical noodle]

52. Complacency is the only thing that could elect him

If people stay home rather than going out to vote for Hillary, get ready to spend millions to remodel the White House in Trump's tackiest way.

[Yo_Mama]

61. YES!! We should be pushing the idea that he can, and every vote is needed so he doesn't. n/t

[saltpoint]

55. If there are no October surprises

for the Democratic ticket, then I think Nate Silver's percentages will likely hold.

In that outcome, Trump would not be able to overcome the significant percentage of opposition among key voting groups to remain competitive in the states whose electoral vote totals will decide the election.

Clinton is now competing in Texas, which seems to me an indication that her internals are suggesting that Trump's deplorables have hit a statistical ceiling and that demographic models generally and the Latino vote particularly may buoy her chances. How sweet it would be for a Democratic ticket to carry Texas.

There's also the mechanics of victory. Clinton-Kaine has vans fueled and waiting to get voters to the polls. Trump has barely opened field offices in several key states.

[ileus]

56. We're going to teach his deplorables a valuable lesson after HRCs in power.

Not only is there no way in hell for him to win, we're going to crush the resistance once and for all after Hillarys big win. They're sitting ducks, Hillary will lead and be able to get things done to punish them that Barack never could.

[loyalsister]

57. I keep wanting to hope it into unthinkable territory

But I actually feel like the possibility that his base is larger than we realize should not be dismissed. After all, every supporter has a circle of potentially persuadable friends and family. I am not living in constant fear, but I feel very sure that nothing should be taken for granted.

[Adrahil]

58. I don't think so.

I think Trump is bumping against his ceiling. But ya never know. Nobody ever went broke betting on the stupidity of a large portion of the American public.

I admit that even if he loses, the number of people willing to support him is depressing.

[Yo_Mama]

60. If you want to win elections, always assume your opponent can win.

We'll find out November 8th or 9th, so I wouldn't want to speculate. It just diverts attention from what Dems should be doing right now.

The last meme you want to spread is that it is not necessary to take the time and trouble to vote for Hillary, because she's got it all sewed up already!!!

[NeoConsSuck]

62. Bush was elected twice

so the answer to your question, is yes.

[dishatin]

63. Psychopaths from Nixon's CREEP and Dirty Tricks

There is Trump; but then there are his dirty tricksters, scum bags, and psychopaths that will stop for nothing, for no one even if it means people literally get killed.... (Don't forget how they took out Senator Paul Wellstone, opposed the invasion of Iraq, required the Federal government procurement to buy American first)and these evil doers, with the support of the voyeuristic catcha media, uninterested in the affairs and future of the United States of America, circa 2000 for those of you who remember, shoved out en masse, Andrea Mitchell (wife of Alan Greenspan among them) Al Gore, aided and abetted by the US Supreme Court which gave rise to the first illegitimate Presidency in U.S. history.... President Obama's inner core is stronger and mightier and all of them put together and his support was so wide and so deep, his shield of support was no match for the cruel CREEPY psychopaths running Trumpet's campaign....Roger Stone, the youngest member of the Committee to Re-Elect the President (CREEP) and Robert Morrow....are literally diabolical. This is as far as I am willing to go... each one of us,if we love our country..has a moral obligation to form a shield around Hillary to deflect the evil doers from advancing one millimetre...good news may come tomorrow... Chris Christie is on the hook for Bridge Gate... claimed he turned over all of his personal emails, which he did NOT. Band together, Hillary Strong....

[dishatin]

67. Really, Really Grotesque: Roger Stone and Morrow: pornographic sliming - Dirty Trickster Operators

rapist|http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/09/roger-stone-book-trump-bill-clinton-hillary-rapist]

What goes around comes around; these deplorables will face their own "October Surprise" aka "October Demise" of the Deplorables

[mountain grammy]

66. My husband assures me Trump will lose big.

He's 100% positive. Me, not so much.
We went to a town event tonight. It's connected to our town's celebration of Constitution Week, an excuse to host right wing speakers and have fireworks. We went tonight because there was free food (honest) but left before the speeches. Tonight's speaker was the Senate candidate for the Libertarian party. Well, at least she's not for Trump. The keynote speaker later this week is David Clarke, the Minneapolis Sheriff who spoke at the RNC. All the good Trumpsters are wearing their flag shirts and colonial costumes.. so cute.
My point is, my husband is so naive. We saw an old friend (who I know from FB is for Trump) and he made a joke about Trump. She didn't say anything, but I told him later, she's for Trump. He's was shocked. We've known them for 20 years, no way is she like that. I said, see, that's why I'm so worried.

[a kennedy]

71. I' thinking, and I've said this so many other times.......I worry about the

closet tRump voters.....

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

70. Yes. His supporters will walk through snow drifts to vote for him, and defeat Clinton.

I don't know if Clinton generates the same fervor among supporters.

She's no Obama.

We need a good "get out the vote" campaign.

[madokie]

74. Only if Democrat voters stay home

That is the only way he can win.

[Amaril]

75. My opinion (based on what I see around me)

I work in the insurance industry in a very small office (15 people) where I am the "token liberal" (nothing new -- I've only worked one other place over the course of my career where there was a significant population of Democrats). The people I work with are not "uneducated" or "just plain ignorant", but they are all voting for Trump.

The thing that frightens me is that they aren't voting for him because he is the "lesser of two evils" (though, trust me, they vehemently despise Hillary) -- they're voting for him because they actually think he is a smart, savvy businessman, and they love that he "tells it like it is."

So, based on my personal experience, I do fear that Trump may just be able to pull this off, because this group isn't abnormal -- they're all nice, decent, hardworking people with one glaring flaw.



ps...........I'm looking for a new job.

[jodymarie aimee]

76. I live in Wisconsin where in 6 years

we have learned there is one under every rock. In a million years, we would never have believed what ONE guy could do to our once great state. Like Kansas, we have become the petri dish. They knew where to strike, altho our state brought this country many great progressive ideals it also brought Joe McCarthey. This DarkSide can spread esp when education is ridiculed, corruption is allowed by the courts and the media is silent.

[LisaL]

81. Clearly it is possible.

[tenderfoot]

82. I wish the administrators would PPR people that post concern bee ess like this.

EOM

[geek tragedy]

84. This country is that stupid and that racist.

If current trends hold, he will win.

Hopefully Clinton can figure out a way to turn the tide by winning a few media cycles.