Clinton Holds A Slight Lead Among Virginia Voters

[struggle4progress]

ByDANIELLE KEETON-OLSEN
SEPTEMBER 2, 2016, 1:20 PM EDT

Hillary Clinton holds a one-point lead over Donald Trump in a poll of likely Virginia voters, released Friday by Emerson College.

The poll shows Clinton ahead, 44-43, with Libertarian Gary Johnson following at 11 percent and Green Party's Jill Stein at 3 percent.

A Hampton University poll released earlier this week showed Clinton ahead by two points, 43-41, in a head-to-head match among likely Virginia voters. Emerson College has not previously polled the presidential race in Virginia.

The Emerson College poll was conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1 via automated poll of landlines only. The survey included 800 likely Virginia voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-holds-slight-lead-virginia

[msongs]

1. automated poll...landlines only. ok nt

[MFM008]

2. Kornacki had one poll today that says

shes ahead by 9 in VA.
Maybe we should just forget about polls for a while.

[LenaBaby61]

3. Clinton Holds A Slight Lead Among Virginia Voters.

A poll polling ONLY land lines? Speaks for itself.

Forget about this poll. Save yourself some anxiety my friend.

[Cicada]

4. The Emerson poll weights for 2012 vote and party ID, which is stupid

We know that in polls more people say they voted for the winner of prior elections than actually did. So weighting to match 2012 vote includes fewer real Obama voters than actually voted for him. And if you say you support Clinton you tend to say you are a Democrat, even if are registered as a Republican. So weighting party ID removes those who are switchers, former Repubs now favoring a Democrat and vice versa. That throws error into the results. And robot callers can not legally call cell phones. And cell phone only voters are more likely to be young. This may be why Rassmussen, also a robot caller like Emerson, has such a large Republican bias (compared to actual election results). So the Emerson polls have a lot of problems.