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underpants

(182,803 posts)
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 10:13 AM Aug 2016

Sunday discussion - What *should* we have done in Syria?

I've seen almost unanimous declarations of how we "mishandled" Syria. Usually it's just that statement with no explanation.

I'm aware of the players in the area (Assad, rebel groups, ISIL, Turkey, Kurds, Russia, China) and from that can work up the options, or lack there of, in dealing with the situation in Syria.

What escapes me is what exactly everyone thinks we SHOULD HAVE DONE. Military action? More military action? Ground troops? Is the criticism based on our not anticipating or dealing with the refugee crisis?

Is there a conventional wisdom of how we should have dealt with this?

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Sunday discussion - What *should* we have done in Syria? (Original Post) underpants Aug 2016 OP
It's a shame this isn't getting more action Blue_Tires Aug 2016 #1
Thanks underpants Aug 2016 #6
Agree that Syria is a colossal mess, but it is important to NOT fall into the false assumption that karynnj Aug 2016 #11
FWIW, I'm not convinced Syria wouldn't be in the same situation Blue_Tires Aug 2016 #14
I haven't seen anything I think of as a "consensus." Igel Aug 2016 #2
Thanks underpants Aug 2016 #5
Thanks for this explanation nt karynnj Aug 2016 #12
I don't think we could have fixed it, nor was it our responsibility. /nt Marr Aug 2016 #3
the quickest path to ending war, either way, would have been good bhikkhu Aug 2016 #4
I'm getting that from several posts here. underpants Aug 2016 #7
Five years ago there was no way to know moondust Aug 2016 #8
I'm no expert, so fwiw: Who knows? We could have gone in deeper and we'd be lindysalsagal Aug 2016 #9
What should the French have done during the US ... JoePhilly Aug 2016 #10
Nothing. rug Aug 2016 #13
Nothing Calculating Aug 2016 #15
There are no good options, IMO. Adrahil Aug 2016 #16
Yes Calculating Aug 2016 #17
Yup.... Adrahil Aug 2016 #18
How many nations exist without violence to see who gets to make the rules? The2ndWheel Aug 2016 #19
Personally I think Syria is a victim of Bush invasion of Iraq. yellowcanine Aug 2016 #20

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
1. It's a shame this isn't getting more action
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 01:00 PM
Aug 2016

Sadly, because there are no easy one-size-fits-all solutions for Syria, a lot of the punditocracy either ignore it, or they focus their attentions on lesser conflict spots with clearly defined "bad guys", i.e., Yemen...

I've been racking my brain over this as well, given that I keep fairly close tabs to what's been going on over there (because of the Russia/Iran/Turkey angles, naturally)...

Yeah, the hindsight is always 20/20 on what shouldn't have been done, and there's no real dispute that Washington's policy there has been an epic failure, but this is a very complex mess with a lot of actors and a lot of outsiders pulling the strings...And because of that, I can't even forsee what the endgame is, or what should be done in the meantime...

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
11. Agree that Syria is a colossal mess, but it is important to NOT fall into the false assumption that
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 08:48 PM
Aug 2016

there was a good path that the US could have taken that would have made it better. Keep in mind:

1) Though powerful, the US does not control the actions of the rest of the world
2) Paths not taken WILL be offered as better than what we did. As it is terrible, many would argue that they would have been better. In fact, they could have been worse. The main alternatives would all have been for the US to have been more aggressive. If you look at the fact that both Afghanistan and Iraq, where even after a decade of occupation, are still chaotic.
3) In Syria, where you have Russia, Iran (and its proxy Hezbollah) as forces backing Assad and many Sunni allies backing the rebels, unfortunately often including Al Nusra and (at an earlier point) even ISIS. Add to that the mess that is Turkey, which likely aided ISIS at one point, and clearly hates the Kurds more than ISIS and which, for a period, hated Assad more than ISIS. That is before even considering that the "moderate" rebels shift easily between groups we approve of and ones that we don't. One huge problem when the cessation of Hostilities was attempted was that some rebels we supported were co-located with Al Nusra, which was not included in the ceasefire. From that, you can see what a tough job the UN and Kerry and Lavrov have in trying to end the war.

Look at the description in 3. From the beginning, you had a repressive Syrian government and you had a Russian naval base in the country. Syria has a strong air force and the rebels were not all in one big segment of the country - unlike Libya. That was why a no fly zone was easy in Libya and would have been tough in Syria. Then look at what a hell hole Libya is after the no fly zone allowed their rebels to remove Quaddafi. Active US involvement could have been more of a nightmare than Iraq was and it is not clear what "success" could have been. The strongest components of the rebels were ISIS and Al Nusra. Had we actually done what McCain and the neo cons wanted, we could have ended up with them in control.

4) I think that makes a case that we should not have done more in terms of aggression. What of the other side? Could we have done less? This is something that history might try to analyze. I suspect that we actually did less than many fault us with doing -- and for at least 4 years, the Sunni countries have attacked Obama for not doing things.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
14. FWIW, I'm not convinced Syria wouldn't be in the same situation
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 11:21 AM
Aug 2016

even if the U.S. had a 100% hands-off policy... Yeah, the flavor of the conflict would be a bit different, but it would be just as bad, imo...

Also remember that other western nations were balls deep in Syria (i.e., France) before Washington decided to participate...

Igel

(35,309 posts)
2. I haven't seen anything I think of as a "consensus."
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 01:14 PM
Aug 2016

Lots of individuals claiming consensus, but that's something fundamentally different.

What we should have done is based on what we think would have happened or should have happened. Much of what I've heard is CYA--if we didn't do what we did, pigs would fly as they anally mated with elephants to spawn sharks sort of scenarios. All life would end on all planets everywhere, or "our" President would have been disgraced. Same thing for some.

My understanding is this: Assad had a problem with militant/Salafist Sunnis and with liberal dissidents. The latter protested, we assumed that they were worthy of defense, and we encouraged them. We didn't like that Salafists were homegrown in Syria with an overlay of rejects from Iraq. Nobody wanted to see them as we Spread Democracy in the warmth of the Arab Spring and supported the educated, liberal, secular urban democrats.

Not all of the liberal, secular, urban democrats were any of those things, but no matter. We supported and encouraged them, gave them grounds to hope for more, and the army lost personnel. By the time we realized bad things resulted from our encouragement there was an incipient civil war, and next thing we knew the Salafi militants in the east were militating all over the place and the Kurds had sided with stability. Assad was embattled, Turkey enraged, Iraq was losing ground, and the West dithered. Things didn't go as predicted, as expected. LA-LA-LA-LA, but we avoided the elephant-pig orgies and the resulting sharky offspring.

What we should have done, what would have resulted in fewer deaths and misery, is deeply disturbing: Nothing. No embargo against Assad. Let him put down the dissent quickly. Yes, hundreds, perhaps a few thousands, would have died. *Probably*. In hindsight, that would have been better than the 10s of thousands dead, millions displaced, and extreme upheaval that we've seen in two countries (if not three), with the strife on-going. But it took a certain kind of intelectual sang-froid to do this, and people were emoting all over the place and exultant in how wonderful it was to be us and like us. The arc of history, yada-yada, turned into the arco de la historia (bow of history) with its arrows flying in al directions, and an ark of history to hold the deads' remains. Sometimes "Don't do something, just sit there" *is* the right course of action, even if it was a Reagan saying. It can be hard not to intervene.

It might have even been a chance to woo Assad away from some of his ideology and allies towards the West, and provided an opportunity for future change. Who knows? Probably Turkey wouldn't be aiming to continue the anti-Kurdish genocide it's waged for the last 150 years, Iran wouldn't be gaining clout, and Russia wouldn't be expanding its field of activities with the very open goal of establishing hegemony and weakening Europe economically and militarily because it sees itself as dominating Europe and Asia. (Da, eto ne tol'ko s amerikanskikh istokov, no i s russkikh.)

Alternatively, a massive ground invasion installing a kind of interim body would have been better. Yes, soldiers and civilians would have died, but odds are it would have been better in the long run. The Salafi militancy would have occurred either way, as it was ongoing (crushed to a great extent by Assad's thuggery, but still there). That, too, would have required a bit of grit to pull off.

We chose the middle ground. Safe for us, but at the cost of many thousands of lives and a massive social upheaval that will do good for very, very few, but lets many of us feel good and blame others.

underpants

(182,803 posts)
5. Thanks
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 02:49 PM
Aug 2016

You said a lot there so I can't really comment on it.

Doing nothing IS always an option in any decision. Yes, if I am reading you right, allowing Assad to do what he wanted could have been better but that's a hard call for someone to make. Add into that decision that our policy has always been to not support him in any way.

bhikkhu

(10,716 posts)
4. the quickest path to ending war, either way, would have been good
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 02:45 PM
Aug 2016

We could have done nothing, and Assad would have won. It would have been bloody and repressive and been followed by purges and repression, but the cities and infrastructure would have been still standing, and the death toll would have been less.

Or we could have committed more fully, chosen the least offensive group to ally with, and gone to war to put them in power.

The worst outcomes arrive when two sides at war are equally matched - long grinding wars that destroy whole cultures and populations.

Of course, there are always reasons why "better" choices were not really available. Doing nothing wasn't much of an option, given the use of chemical weapons and torture, and the oppressive nature of the Syrian regime. Also, going all in or forging a quick path to victory would have been seen as a massive over-reach on our part; it could have easily led to a proxy war between the US and Assad's allies, and the appearance of unjust action on our part may have multiplied his allies.

underpants

(182,803 posts)
7. I'm getting that from several posts here.
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 02:52 PM
Aug 2016

Doing nothing and standing by while there is much bloodshed is a very hard call.

moondust

(19,981 posts)
8. Five years ago there was no way to know
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 03:11 PM
Aug 2016

Last edited Sun Aug 28, 2016, 03:46 PM - Edit history (1)

the level of commitment or capability of the "rebels" to successfully wage a civil war. When Assad started shooting the peaceful Arab Spring demonstrators, they effectively became freedom fighters IMO. I fear they may have assumed NATO would intervene with air power like in Libya, but that was not a given due to geography and other factors. About the best anybody could do was to give them a fighting chance against Assad's army by supplying them with the weapons to fight their own civil war.

I suspect the U.S. consulted Israel before doing anything as they no doubt had the most comprehensive intelligence on the region at the time as well as having much to lose by the ignorant missteps of a military superpower. Be thankful Bush and Cheney were no longer in office.

Incidentally, 5-6 years ago the American public was not at all interested in joining another potentially big war.

lindysalsagal

(20,686 posts)
9. I'm no expert, so fwiw: Who knows? We could have gone in deeper and we'd be
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 07:46 PM
Aug 2016

in a viet nam situation, with russia countering whatever we would have done.

Obama's too smart for that.

There are so many moving parts, changing hourly, that there are no absolute answers to that question.

But I do lean into this camp: If the other arab neighboring countries didn't want to save their own brethren, they probably know alot that we don't know, over here in the rich, calm, usa.

If they're not going in, we're not going in.

I think Obama played that hand the best he could. Killing is still considered a way of life in the middle east. Until the vast majority of middle eastern civilians announce they're done with killing for god, or for leaders, there's always more of them willing to die than there are of us willing to die. So, it's a no-win situation.

They have not exhausted their blood thirst. Asad is getting propped up. Until they stop propping him up, we have not business being there. Sometimes we can't stop the killing.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
10. What should the French have done during the US ...
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 08:13 PM
Aug 2016

... Revolution?

Once Bush invaded Iraq, the genie was out of the bottle.

All the US can do now is try to help constrain the crazy that exists in that part of the world.

Powell was right about one thing, we broke it. Thanks W.

 

rug

(82,333 posts)
13. Nothing.
Sun Aug 28, 2016, 08:53 PM
Aug 2016

There are a lot of non-military avenues.

Increasing the death toll is worse than doing nothing.

Calculating

(2,955 posts)
15. Nothing
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 11:33 AM
Aug 2016

It's not our problem or responsibility to fix all of the issues in the world. So tired of the US taxpayers needing to pay for our 'world police' actions. How about we step back and let other countries sort themselves out for a while?

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
16. There are no good options, IMO.
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 11:33 AM
Aug 2016

Assad is a bad guy. A REALLY bad guy. But as we've seen in Iraq, removing a bad guy doesn't mean everything gets better. This really is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Calculating

(2,955 posts)
17. Yes
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 11:40 AM
Aug 2016

When you remove one 'bad guy' you just open the door for a worse guy to take his place. The worst case scenario is you just cause a long civil war between multiple bad guys who wanna rule the country.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
18. Yup....
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 11:53 AM
Aug 2016

That doesn't mean we shouldn't do anything, but no one should have any illusions that intervention would result in a "good" outcome.

See: Libya. I think we had to act. But it was a crappy situation no matter what. My heart goes out to the people over there. It's bad, and is likely to stay that way for a generation or more.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
19. How many nations exist without violence to see who gets to make the rules?
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 12:18 PM
Aug 2016

One of the issues in the Middle East are the borders created by external forces. They made such little sense that propping up dictators in the region has been necessary.

yellowcanine

(35,699 posts)
20. Personally I think Syria is a victim of Bush invasion of Iraq.
Mon Aug 29, 2016, 02:38 PM
Aug 2016

No way to prove it but there is little doubt in my mine that the destabilization of Iraq led directly to the destabilization of Syria. Just my two cents.

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