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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBrewing tropical storm may threaten Bahamas, Florida as a hurricane
Better keep an eye on this one
The disturbance, currently located about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami, is forecast to take a general west to west-northwest path near Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and near Hispaniola on Thursday.
"The exact track of 99L will have a big impact on when the system strengthens," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...icane/59646780
Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)Oops, nevermind looks like each color represents different agencies.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)The only thing you can get from this is Florida is probably going to get hit.
csziggy
(34,136 posts)From Dr. Jeff Masters' blog:
Since 99L has not yet formed a well-defined circulation center, it has been difficult for models to agree on its future track and intensity. This situation will likely continue until at least Thursday afternoon, when the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. This drop in shear will potentially allow 99L to organize into a tropical storm and give the models something more substantial to chew on.
A strong upper-level ridge now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through the weekend, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track through at least Friday. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and UKMET, continued to show development of 99L into a tropical storm by Friday in their latest 12Z Wednesday runs. These models brought 99L across or near South Florida on Sunday and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall occurring on the Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the GFS, continued to insist that 99L would not develop through Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3397
Baclava
(12,047 posts)No closed center to track. It's not even a tropical depression yet, let alone a tropical storm.
It could break up completely over the mountains of Hispaniola or reform in any direction and blow up fast over warm water
A tricky one, but S. FL especially and areas in the GOM need to pay attention.