Hillary is outspending Trump 40-1...

[kentuck]

Yet, they are tied in the polls at 40%, in the latest NYTimes poll. How do we explain that?

Also, she has lost support since she was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and since the FBI recommended no prosecution for the email controversy.

How do we explain this?

It seems to me that Donald Trump is like water wearing away a rock with his name-calling and character assassinations. He's a pig and he thoroughly enjoys the mud.

[Blue_Adept]

1. aw, you've been around the block a few times with this kentuck

You know how polling works, the summer season, and the pointless nature of national polls.

So much concern, so little time.

[kentuck]

3. No. I don't know how this works.

Sorry.

[rtracey]

10. depends

Depends on what poll you look at.. Fox has her up, NBC/Marist has her up in PA by 9, Colorado by 13, in OHIO and Iowa, if you are seeing these even or below poll in November then panic.... Trump is coming into the convention and his numbers will go up, but when Hillary goes to convention her numbers will follow......my preference is 538. I think as far as info and statistics, no one can beat Nate Silver and he is steadfast calling 75-25, or 78-22 Clinton...

[uponit7771]

23. 1, you already know the national polls mean very little right now, 2. 538 is more reliable than

... singular polls, 3. swing states 538 tRump is still low, 4. tRumps internals with white college is down 538...

Right now... its still matters only after labor day

[Jeffersons Ghost]

43. kentuck, as an old friend, who worked in media, I will explain...

Like media ratings, the polls are rigged! Do you fully understand?

[Blue_Adept]

47. You've been here since 2001 and you don't know how this works?

You may not be getting the best DU Experience then.

[MADem]

21. You win the thread. If I could rec your post I would.

So much concern, so little time.



Succint, and accurate.

[trumad]

40. LOL

[Blue_Adept]

48. Kentuck's been here as long as I've been here

Hell, I remember talking with the DU guys about DCForum with Choi back when it was one of the best discussion forum scripts out there.

If after fifteen years and three to four presidential cycles depending on how you view it and you still don't get how any of this works, nothing will get through.

[Democat]

2. Romney was ahead of Obama at this point in media polls

But he was never going to win.

[mahina]

5. Thank you for that.

It's morning here, just getting up, and I feel like I need to breathe into a paper bag and put my head between my knees when I read stuff like the OP. It is fucking terrifying.

[tritsofme]

35. Obama was consistently ahead of Romney all summer, things tightened after the fist debate

Romney only led in a few outliers during that period, we will probably look back and say something similar about Trump this time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

[Democat]

38. Agreed, some specific polls hyped by the media showed Romney ahead

Just like Trump.

[davidn3600]

45. Romney was running against a relatively popular incumbant

Trump is running against a woman who has serious trust problems (2/3rds of Americans in the NYT poll say they do not trust Hillary).

[Nuclear Unicorn]

46. That kinda makes Clinton more analogous to Romney if we look past party affiliation.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. The constant bashing from the Corporate Media doesn't help.

[kentuck]

6. The false equivalencies promoted by the media...

is a huge problem, I think. Trump says something terrible that would disqualify most candidates for the presidency and the media simply smiles as if it is just another joke by the Donald. But Hillary's emails or Ginsburg's comments are blown all out of proportion, in my opinion.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. I'm not a huge HRC fan, but the unfairness that she is subjected to actually makes her more

sympathetic. I'm wondering if all the bashing will have the opposite effect.

[tonyt53]

7. Ignore polls until Labor Day. The more outrageous things Trump says, the more free TV time.

Better ask the networks why this is happening.

[doc03]

30. That is how the media drove Trump to defeating 16 other Republicans n/t

[madamesilverspurs]

8. Hillary has to spend ten times more

in order to get a tenth of the media coverage that he continues to get for free.







.

[drray23]

11. she has a ground game operation. Trump does not.

Hillary's campaign has been spending significant money on ads and ground game organizing. This is what determines the success of a campaign in the long term. Sure, from time to time there will be outlier polls seeming to indicate it does not work but in the long run its not true. Trump has a muddied message to say the least and he won't be able to make it heard once the general is in full swing. He is going to get absolutely destroyed in debates for example. Thats when most americans start paying attention. Clinton's ground operations and data driven campaign will allow her to win battle ground states by turning out the right voters where it matters. Trump will just be flaying around incoherently.

[doc03]

31. Oh really? How is it Trump signs, bumper stickers, hats,

badges and T shirts are everywhere. I have yet to see one Hillary sign or sticker of any kind.

[drray23]

32. thats not ground game.

its campaign paraphenalia. Ground game is the ability to target your potential voters with get out the vote operations.

[trumad]

41. Yeah really---

Dude has a pathetic ground game. A bumper sticker is not a ground game.

[phylny]

39. I live in a very red part of Virginia, and all we have here are Trump signs,

but that's to be expected. What I didn't anticipate is that I've seen tons of commercials on TV in support of Hillary, and not one for Trump. It's kinda nice.

[DetlefK]

12. Still 3.5 months to go. Just wait until HRC's campaign starts rolling out attack-ads against Trump.

Clinton's campaign will have a hard time deciding what NOT to bring up in attack-ads.

[mia]

13. Patriotism effect? The polls were just after the 4th of July.

Plus the polls were to early to reflect Sanders' endorsement.

[EarlG]

14. On NPR the other week

there was a discussion about this, and one of the commentators said it's normal at this stage -- what you're seeing reflected in the polls is support by the base of each party.

The commentator said that getting to 40% is easy -- it's getting the remaining 10% that is the hard part, and that's where all of the millions of dollars get spent, and where the ground game comes into play. (Remember, national polls are largely meaningless in a presidential race -- it's the battleground states that matter.)

As you get closer and closer to 50% you have to work harder and harder to eke out the remaining votes that will put you over the top. That's why fundraising and field operations make all the difference in the fall, and Hillary is already outperforming Trump in both areas.

GOP insiders alarmed by Trump's fundraising

Swing-state Republicans are unnerved and demoralized by Donald Trump’s cash-strapped presidential campaign.

Two-thirds of GOP members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key battleground states — say they are alarmed by Trump’s poor fundraising after the presumptive Republican nominee reported this week spending $6.7 million in May and having only $1.3 million left in the bank. Nearly half, 46 percent, said they were “very alarmed.”

Trump’s poor fundraising comes amid a widening deficit in the polls: He’s now consistently behind Hillary Clinton in every national poll and most swing-state surveys. And more than three-quarters of GOP insiders in these 10 states think Clinton would win their states if the general election were held today.

And that poor performance, insiders say, could beget further financial woes.

A lot of holes in GOP presidential ground game in key states

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Presidential battleground states were supposed to be swarming with Republican Party workers by now.

"We've moved on to thousands and thousands of employees," party chairman Reince Priebus declared in March, contrasting that with the GOP's late-blooming staffing four years earlier. "We are covering districts across this country in ways that we've never had before."

That hasn't exactly happened, a state-by-state review conducted by The Associated Press has found.

With early voting beginning in less than three months in some states, the review reveals that the national GOP has delivered only a fraction of the ground forces detailed in discussions with state leaders earlier in the year. And that is leaving anxious local officials waiting for reinforcements to keep pace with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the states that matter most in 2016.

The polls are going to swing up and down as the campaign continues, and the media will focus most of all on the ones which show a close race. But look at this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Trump still has to practically run the table on battleground states -- if Hillary wins VA, FL, and PA, Trump can have all the rest (including WI, MI, NC, NV, OH, etc) and still not win. (And this year the list of battleground states includes Arizona and Georgia, which means the map has already expanded in favor of Democrats.)

I think pretty much any campaign manager would rather be in Clinton's shoes than Trump's right now.

[MohRokTah]

15. You act like this is your first time at the rodeo!

C'mon, the polls always do this in July.

ALWAYS.

Trump will be in the lead after the convention. That ALWAYS happens for the challenging party.

Hillary will retake the lead after the convention. That ALWAYS happens with the incumbent party.

And the results for the state by state aggregate predictions ALWAYS change little, which is why 538 has Hillary at 70% and Trump at 30% right now.

C'mon now, this ain't your first presidential race.

[trumad]

42. Expect to see more concern from ex-Bernie patriots.

[cosmicone]

16. Your concern is noted n/t

[tman]

17. A sad indictment of american society

that the polling is even this close. Anything less than a landslide should be unthinkable.

[a kennedy]

18. and I don't know what I'm going to do if, IF, he'd become president.....

[Matrosov]

19. Because the media loves to give him free advertising

Trump = ratings

The more outrageous crap he says, the more the media pays attention to him, because the higher the ratings will be.. consequently, the more outrageous crap he says, the less he has to spend, because the media is giving him free advertising.

[flamingdem]

20. Donald is getting wall to wall coverage on tv

plus his twits are the subject of news headlines.

[Gabi Hayes]

34. who the fuck CARES about the veep search, except the frickin media?

whoever it is will end up just like Christie, standing behind him, as out of the picture as possible, while trump hogs every moment of spotlight possible

if it's pence, nobody will pay any attention to him, and that's probably what they want. if it were Christie or Newt, they MIGHT let loose some of the tons of baggage those creeps both carry.


that idiot on CNN, Gloria Borger said something like, "he's such a showman, we HAVE to cover his veep selection"

right, moment by moment? how bout even mentioning the RAPE lawsuit filing, or the FACT that his wife, Ivana, in deposition, accused him of pulling her HAIR out, and raping HER, too? I know she took it back, but that makes her a liar at least once, and that would be under oath.

and what about
Jill Harth:

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/exclusive-inside-the-donald-trump-sexual-assault-lawsuit/

The lawsuit was filed by Jill Harth who then went by Jill Harth Houraney on April 25, 1997. Harth, who was in her early 30’s at the time, alleged that Trump engaged in hostile and offensive sexual behavior towards her from 1992 to 1997 including “groping” her under her dress on several occasions, “forcibly” moving her to his daughter’s bedroom in an attempt to have sex with her, and repeatedly, aggressively and inappropriately propositioning her for sex. She called it “sexually abusive” and LawNewz.com spoke to her in an exclusive interview.

Harth says she met Trump in her capacity as a pageant producer organizing international model search events in the early 1990’s. This was around the same time that Trump was active in the beauty pageant world. Harth’s lawsuit came as her former husband George Houraney was involved in a breach-of-contract dispute with Trump over a beauty contest at one of Trump’s properties in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

In the lawsuit, Harth alleged that on January 24th 1993 while at Trump’s estate in Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida the following happened:

After Trump business associates left, the defendant (Trump) over the plaintiff’s objections forcibly prevented plaintiff from leaving and forcibly removed plaintiff to a bedroom, whereupon defendant (Trump) subjected plaintiff to defendant’s unwanted sexual advances, which included touching of plaintiff’s private parts in an act constituting attempted “rape”

Harth also claimed in the lawsuit that in 1993 Trump made numerous phone calls to her home in Boca Raton, Florida from New York demanding that she “sleep with him.” In the court filing, she also claimed that on January 9, 1993: “Trump forcefully removed (Harth) from public areas of Mar-A-Lago in Florida and forced (her) into a bedroom belonging to defendant’s daughter Ivanka, wherein (Trump) forcibly kissed, fondled, and restrained (her) from leaving, against (her) will and despite her protests.” In the court document, she said that Trump bragged that he”would be the best lover you ever have.”

Harth stated that one of her encounters in 1993 with Trump resulted in her becoming physically ill where she was “nauseated and vomited profusely.”

the lawsuit was dismissed without prejudice, meaning she could refile, but there's a familiar ring to the way things ended up. her husband made some sort of mysterious, sealed settlement with trump, over a breach-of-contract case,

according to an obscure 1997 gossip article in the New York Daily News, which appears to be the only mainstream media coverage of either suit.

in the interview at the link, she now claims that, basically, the things she charged in the lawsuit didn't happen, that she's now friends with trump and would vote for him!!!! sound familiar? almost the exact words Ivana used.

you really should read the article. she was really PISSED when they first called her, and now won't talk to her. read the rest, then read the comments, which have several that demonstrate attorneys' views, and pretty much agree that something actually happened between the two.

trump's very sleazy special counsel, Michael Cohen, (who lied to the world about trump's supposedly paying for Ed McMahon's house, when he was almost thrown out as he was dying), made this statement about her suit:

“There is no truth to the story at all. The plaintiff in the matter, Jill Harth, would acknowledge the same. You will see the case was voluntarily dismissed without prejudice. There is no truth to it. Unfortunately, Jill was a pawn in a lawsuit that was created by her ex-husband. There is no validation to the matter.”

then, there's this: even while Harth is castigating LawNewz, which is run by Dan Abrams (remember him?), she is quoted thusly in a statement she sent to them:

I never disavowed the complaint to anyone..... The statement of the Trump attorney Michael Cohen is his alone and is not to be attributed to me. Swearing falsely in a federal complaint is a crime. Jill Harth”

hear that, Ivana?

Harth said she would've talked, had LawNewz not fucked things up, but their response makes me think that she talked to somebody, and they reminded her about the hush money paid to settle her hubby's suit.

it's a really fascinating story...very convoluted, but establishes another link in his CLEAR pattern of abusing women, no matter their age. he reminds me of infamous womanizer Joe Kennedy Sr.


have you EVER seen this on TV?

[flamingdem]

36. Whoa

I hope he pisses off the media so much that they turn on him and run this story

[spanone]

22. if you're watching cable news today, you realize why trump doesn't have to spend money

all trump, all the time.

non-stop.

Hillary's fighting just to get mentioned.

the media could deliver this president.

they have certainly delivered one of the nominees.

[TwilightZone]

24. I'm not sure how many of these threads we need.

Apparently at least one more.

"she has lost support since she was endorsed by Bernie Sanders "

There are no polls that have been released that include post-endorsement data.

[lpbk2713]

25. The pendulum continues to swing.

As it will continue to swing many more times until November.

[TwilightZone]

27. Yep.

Just like it does every election cycle.

[Wounded Bear]

26. Polls, schmolls...

(Did I do that right? )

The electoral college has Hillary with a base of around 240 to start, Trump around 160 or so. Swing states are competitive with a current Hillary edge. No way he flips enough Obama states to win this one. Popular vote is for indication only.

[LenaBaby61]

28. OP, If I can give you ANY advice....

It's to not read or believe:

1. Rasmussens polling.
2. Gravis polling.
3. NY Times polls in general, because they've been WAY off this election cycle with it's analysis and predictions politically.
4. Or any right-winged polling (Like Quinnipiac) who projects that voting amongst the white population will go up 2% and down
by the same 2%, and who don't really poll minorities--and this time around it appears that Q-poll actually polled minorities
LESS than they did with their last poll--a poll which had Bernie losing a 14 point lead--down to a 4 pt lead to tRump in Ohio even though
Bernie was still doing very well at that stage in the primaries vs Hillary. Remember to look at the methodology of the poll if you
must read polling by those outfits and others listed above which shows tRump over-preforming well with minorities of ANY stripe, which
is what he'll need to do but is not going to do in the GE this fall. Follow the Electoral College--maybe that'll help you out and calm your
anxiety issues.

[RandySF]

29. GOTV is expensive and has to be in place early

That's why she dominated primary states. By the time Bernie outspent her in ads, she already invested in voter outreach and GOTV. That's why he dominated the airwaves.

[LaydeeBug]

33. This is a marathon, not a sprint. nt

[Arkana]

37. When we start seeing multiple polls in a row that indicate this, wake me.

[pnwmom]

44. Trump has been getting tons of "earned media" as he calls it.

It's not like you never see him on TV. The MSM has been complicit in helping promote him. There is so much that they could be hammering him on -- his tax returns , his businesses, his ethics -- but they barely touch any of that.