Volvo's self driving car, with no human assistance needed, will be ready in 2020! 4 Years!!

[Logical]

Volvo plans to roll out its first self-driving in just four years, and the company claims it’s going to be way more advanced than what other automakers will have to offer.

“The thing that is unique is that we are really trying to deploy the technology in reality. And when I say that, I mean self-driving cars that allow drivers to do something else behind the steering wheel,” Erik Coelingh, Senior Technical Leader for Safety and Driver Support Technologies, told Tech Insider.

In other words, the company’s first self-driving car won’t require a human to supervise it at all while the car is in control. The driver will be able to do another activity while the car does all the driving. What’s more, it will be designed to deal with just about any situation.

Currently, there are a few automakers that sell cars with semi-autonomous systems, meaning the vehicles can drive autonomously under certain circumstances. However, all cars with self-driving features today still require a human to supervise the driving in case they need to intervene to avoid an accident.

Tesla’s Autopilot feature, for example, enables its cars to drive autonomously on the highway where there there are clear markings on the road. The driver, though, must still pay attention in case there’s a situation the car doesn’t know how to handle.

Volvo plans to roll out a system similar to Autopilot in 2017, but by 2020 Coelingh said Volvo’s self-driving technology will be so advanced that no supervision will be needed, and the driver can instead do something else while behind the wheel.

While many automakers have vowed to have an an autonomous system available by 2020, not one has yet promised that no human supervision will be needed.

To help Volvo reach this ambitious goal, Volvo is launching its DriveMe program next year in Gothenburg, Sweden, London, and in select cities in China. The research program will place 100 normal customers in each city behind the wheel of its self-driving cars.

more at:
http://www.techinsider.io/volvos-first-self-driving-car-is-coming-in-2020-2016-5

[CentralMass]

1. I wonder if the ones with Vermont license plates will

know enough to pull into the passing lane on a two lane highway and block it while driving 10 or 15mph below the speed limit for 50 or 60 miles

[Logical]

2. I know there will be a lot of learning curves. But still so exciting! Imagine older people.....

drunk people, and 1000s of lifes saved.

[CentralMass]

3. I can see the possibilities.

[Mojorabbit]

16. This would make my life such a pleasure.

My biggest problem is transportation. I will be first in line to buy one!

[Logical]

18. Many feel the same. And we will all be there some day. nt

[struggle4progress]

5. Or if the ones with Massachusetts plates will know that

in Boston a stop sign means "Toot!" or that the proper response to a long line of stopped city traffic is to hop the curb and drive on the sidewalk

[CentralMass]

8. :-) The Masshole driving algorithm.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

4. This is exciting. And it occurs to me: Why can Volvo go all the way with existing tech, but...

...U.S. and other capitalist automobile manufacturers are rolling the tech out a little at a time? Perhaps it's the same as with cell phones, add a little each time to keep people always wanting, and buying, the latest hardware?

[Zorro]

25. Tesla's Autopilot Beta is pretty sophisticated and already available

Plus software updates to increase Autopilot capabilities are over-the-air.

[Skink]

6. Great now I'll be able to send my robot to do my shopping

[Logical]

7. I wish I had a robot. nt

[Heeeeers Johnny]

9. A pipe dream

Maybe, just maybe they can develop an completely autonomous system sufficient for limited use,
conditions and locations, but whatever they come up with, it will never come even close to the capabilities
and decision making with a human operator behind the wheel.

Is that a rock, chunk of wood or is it a paper cup, piece of cardboard in the road?

Will it know where those little known prime parking spaces are located?

Does it like parking at the front of the lot or the back of the lot?

Will it like to park in the shady spot, or the sunny spot?

Can it spot when someone has gotten into a vehicle and is about to leave?

Can it anticipate when is the best time to change over to the right or left lane?

Does it know when it's better to avoid the left or right lane altogether?

Will it park back in or face forward?

Will it recognize and overly conform to the signage of local (public or private), and municipal
parking/driving ordinances?

What's it going to do when traffic/street/parking lines are faded or non-existent?

What's it going to do when those lines are covered with snow?

What's it's favorite short cut. Bonus points for knowing at what time of day?

Is it going to slow down (and perhaps stop), when the occupants spots something interesting (and I don't' mean
rubbernecking at an accident scene)?

Etc... etc... etc.

I really want no part of this.

I hope the technology dies on the vine like Google Glass did.

[WinkyDink]

10. 100% agree with every single point.

[Logical]

12. And you are 100% wrong. Research technology advancements. People always complain. nt

[yeoman6987]

30. Yes they do. I can't see anything but positive from this

The disabled, blind, ect will not be home bound and for that I say bravo!

[Logical]

31. And bad drivers too! nt

[yeoman6987]

32. True! Lol.

[Logical]

11. You are the ones saying the automobile would never replace a horse and buggy.....

All those questions will be addressed. And solved.

Technology waits for no man. Even you!

Here you go.....

Lee De Forest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1957 De Forest Says Space Travel Is Impossible

1825 - What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?

1977 - There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895

and on and on and on.....

[Heeeeers Johnny]

13. Not even close.

While the technology worked, the human decision making aspect is absent.

[Logical]

14. Jets can and do land themselves. But bookmarked your post. Should be interesting. nt

[Heeeeers Johnny]

20. Apples and oranges.

Autopilot is a feature to account and correct for human error, weather, limitations or response,
and not necessarily what the human's preferences or desires are.

Yeah... we need to slow down, adjust for crosswinds and land on that runway, but I'd really like to
back in and park my car in that nice shady spot (and run over the Mickey'D's paper cup), and also know
when it's cool, take my chances and park in a no parking zone (and risk a ticket/fine), for a few minutes while
I jump out to grab my Dunkin Donuts fix..

[cherokeeprogressive]

15. Sure it's (italics) possible (/italics), but is it feasible?

What it would take more than just cars, and way more than just cars, is a supporting infrastructure. There's going to need to be two-way communication between the car and its environment.

I remember seeing video of a test done somewhere in the San Diego area. There were some kind of devices embedded in the asphalt, evenly spaced, and a matching device in the car. The two of them communicated as the car passed over and the car received information such as how long had been since the last car passed that spot among other things. The highlight of the video was 10 cars separated by a matter of inches going about 100 mph down the road with no one in a driver seat except in the first car.

So while I think it is possible, it's not simply a matter of producing the cars. There will need to be an infrastructure for them to communicate with. Otherwise there are too many variables such as poorly visible lines, no lines, dirt roads, construction zones, broken down cars, accidents caused by those still allowed to hold a steering wheel in their hands and blocking the roadway ahead, etc.

Possible yes. Feasible, questionably. I'd much rather see affordable education, universal healthcare, an end to food insecurity, housing for all, and a host of other societal ills addressed with the money it's going to cost. Because in the end, it will be taxes that create the infrastructure the car companies will force upon society.

[Logical]

17. It will save 20,000 people a year in the US alone. The embedded stuff is years ago.....

without cars smart enough without embedded tech it is too expensive.

You realize this went from nothing to 3/4 there in less than 10 years?

They will solve the problems. Like all tech does eventually.

[cherokeeprogressive]

19. You don't see infrastructure as a necessary component?

[Logical]

21. No, I really do not at this point. Google has said very accurate road maps are required......

but long term they want any road a human can handle be easy for the car to handle.

Look at what has changed in 10 years.

[cherokeeprogressive]

22. From Windows XP to Windows 10. Wonderful change! LOL

I know it's over the horizon, but it's gonna cost the general consumer a mint and personally I'd rather see a few societal ills retired first.

Besides, my 1972 Blazer has a brand new drivetrain, interior, paint job, and wheels/tires. It doesn't have cruise control or power windows but it's got a kick ass stereo with bluetooth/iPod support, aux-in, and looks exactly like the stock AM-FM radio that came with it, plus about 600 watts. I can only hope the world everyone envisions where steering wheels in vehicles is prohibited doesn't come in my lifetime.

[Logical]

23. I see your point and I know people will still want to drive......

But I imagine people hated cars with a passion and swore never us use one over their horse and buggy. I understand it. People feel comfortable.

I am a total nerd so am excited about it.

I would love to watch a movie or read or sleep on a long road trip.

[WinkyDink]

40. Were you rooting for H.A.L.?

[WinkyDink]

39. And you call yourself "Logical"? Your examples both had and have human agency.

[Logical]

43. Lol, you really want me to list all the tech used daily that makes decisions.....

With no human interaction???

Or think you can figure it out on your own?

[Travis_0004]

33. It doesn't need to be perfect, just better than humans

Yes, there are still stuff to work out, and it will never be perfect, but its not to difficult to be better than humans.

Why does it matter where it parks. It will drop me off right in front of the door, then take a spot far away. Why block a close spot? If space is tough, it can double park with other self driving cars.

[FrodosPet]

38. "but its not to difficult to be better than humans"

Actually, it is very difficult to be better than competent human drivers.

At least 20 times a second, self driving cars need to turn gyroscopic G force data, hundreds of thousands of LiDAR dots and millions of pixels of visual data into a complete 3-D understanding of the world. The car has to know: Is that a shadow, a pothole, a pavement patch or discoloration, a piece of debris that can safely be run over, or avoided at all costs? Then they must calculate how the vehicle's current trajectory and control settings (steering, braking, and acceleration) will affect it for the next several seconds of travel. But that alone is not enough. They must constantly recalculate optimum, safe, and emergency paths, and decide what circumstances they must select that path.

And considering that they will have to share the roads for decades with conventional vehicles, they will need to start doing all this in a way that does not confuse human drivers and make the roads even less safe.

http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/PDF/UMTRI-2015-34.pdf

As for widespread adoption, they will have to prove themselves to be A LOT better than humans before people accept SDC technology for themselves.

Motorists' Preferences for Different Levels of Vehicle Automation

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/114386/103217.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak

University of Michigan
Transportation Research Institute
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2150

~ snip ~

Preferred level of vehicle automation

When respondents were asked about which level of vehicle automation they
preferred (see the appendix for the definitions of each level of automation that were provided to respondents), the most frequent preference was for no self-driving (43.8%), followed by partially self-driving (40.6%), with completely self-driving being the least preferred (15.6%). Figure 1 summarizes the results for all respondents, while Table 2 presents a complete summary of responses by gender and age.

Females most frequently preferred no self-driving (47.6%), while males preferred partially self-driving (41.2%).

~ snip ~

Concern about riding in self-driving vehicles

In two different questions, respondents were asked how concerned they would be about riding in a completely self-driving vehicle (Q2) and a partially self-driving vehicle (Q5). The respondents were more concerned about riding in a completely self-driving vehicle than in a partially self-driving vehicle. For example 35.6% were very concerned about riding in a completely self-driving vehicle (and 68.3% were very or moderately concerned), as opposed to 14.1% for a partially self-driving vehicle (with 48.8% being very or moderately concerned). Conversely, 10.6% were not at all concerned with riding in a completely self-driving vehicle, as opposed to 16.2% for a partially self-driving vehicle. Figure 2 summarizes the results for all respondents, while Tables 3 and 4 present complete summaries of responses by gender and age.

Females expressed greater concern than males for riding in completely self-driving vehicles (very concerned: 40.1% versus 30.7%), but the difference was smaller for partially self-driving vehicles (very concerned: 15.7% versus 12.2%).

~ snip ~

[Orrex]

44. Seriously?

Is that a rock, chunk of wood or is it a paper cup, piece of cardboard in the road?

One would imagine that obstacle recognition will be a basic algorithm for this technology. How to you know if it's a rock, a chunk of wood, a paper cup or a piece of cardboard?

Will it know where those little known prime parking spaces are located?

I can't imagine that the basic user/car interface wouldn't allow some input here. BY default, it will likely optimize for the best parking space based on the destination and conditions at the time of arrival. To be frank, that's kind of a silly objection.

Does it like parking at the front of the lot or the back of the lot?

I can't imagine that the basic user/car interface wouldn't allow some input here. By default, it will likely optimize for the best parking space based on the destination and conditions at the time of arrival.

Will it like to park in the shady spot, or the sunny spot?

Likely this will be an optimization feature available to the user in real time. I expect that the car will present multiple possible parking spaces and will allow the user to select his or her preference.

Can it spot when someone has gotten into a vehicle and is about to leave?

Yes, obviously. The autonomous car will be able to react to the movement of that other vehicle more quickly than a human driver would. And if the other vehicle is also autonomous, then it will probably have some kind of transponder alerting your own vehicle to its movement before it happens.

Can it anticipate when is the best time to change over to the right or left lane?

Yes. The vehicle will make that assessment based on conditions at the time of the lane change, including weather, traffic congestion, road conditions, etc.

Does it know when it's better to avoid the left or right lane altogether?

Almost certainly, based on traffic reports, etc. It will probably even be able to select a different, better route altogether in some cases.

Will it park back in or face forward?

Here, too, the user would likely be able to input a preference in real time, or perhaps set up a standing instruction so that the vehicle always parks in or out. Other than having to load the trunk, what difference would it make?

Will it recognize and overly conform to the signage of local (public or private), and municipal
parking/driving ordinances?

What do you mean by "overly?" The vehicle will obey all appropriate ordinances, yes, just as you should.

What's it going to do when traffic/street/parking lines are faded or non-existent?

It will pick up on other queues. Prototype autonomous vehicles 20 years ago were able to follow oil stains in the road, so one would have to think that the designers have considered this.

What's it going to do when those lines are covered with snow?

What do you do when those lines are covered with snow?

What's it's favorite short cut. Bonus points for knowing at what time of day?

The vehicle will be programmed to optimize safety and to select the most time-efficient route, obviously.

Is it going to slow down (and perhaps stop), when the occupants spots something interesting (and I don't' mean rubbernecking at an accident scene)?

The vehicle will almost certainly have an interface allowing the user to intervene in real time, though the vehicle will likely defer to safety concerns. That is, you can't suddenly slow the vehicle to 30MPH from 70MPH in traffic simply because you want to look at a pretty tree.

Forgive me, but your objections seem rather quaint, like someone complaining that they don't want a smartphone because it won't work with their analog answering machine.

[TampaAnimusVortex]

45. Douglas Adams has it right on people accepting new technologies

“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:

1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”

Douglas Adams

[zappaman]

24. No thanks.

I like driving.

[Logical]

26. No thanks. I like my horse and buggy. I understand that logic. People are comfortable. nt

[zappaman]

27. I'm waiting for my flying car. n/t

[Logical]

28. You honestly think the self driving car is the same as the flying car predictions? nt

[zappaman]

29. No, a flying car would be way better. n/t

[FrodosPet]

34. When a computer can perform voice recognition with 99.5% accuracy

I will think computer pattern matching has reached prime time.

It is getting better, but the world is SUCH a variable place, it will still need some time before it is a full time solution.

Yes, it is coming, it is inevitable. But be prepared for setbacks and spilled blood first.

[Logical]

35. I agree, there will be a lot of initial issues. But I bet first year out it saves lives. nt

[Bucky]

42. Yeah, but leadfooting it down the freeway is the only exercise I get these days

Maybe I can have a rowing machine installed in my self-driving car

[Logical]

37. LOL, you nailed it! Perfect! nt

[Bucky]

41. Perfect metaphor for the democracy where only half of us vote