Will Johnson/Weld be in the debates after all the candidates are selected.

[CK_John]

Also I think they could get about 15% and are on the ballot in all 50 states.

This could make the electoral college shy of election and send it to the House.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. They won't poll 15% and won't win any states.

[CK_John]

2. Why not? By the time of election they may seem to be the adults.

[Warren Stupidity]

10. Actually Clinton will appear to be the sane person.

And at least 90% of the libertarian vote above their usual 1% will be normal republican voters. So even if they do manage to get to your 15% that would have trump at 34%. If they win a state it will be a state that is normally republican.

[trumad]

14. Libertarians adults?

You funny.

[rurallib]

3. they would have to win some individual states to throw the election to the House

i doubt they could do that - what states could they win? Utah? Alaska?

[CK_John]

6. Mich, NH, MA, NM and maybe OH.

[beachbumbob]

8. Nope...

Not possible...a libertarian might get 4-8% with most coming from trump support

[CK_John]

12. This is a totally different election, nobody is happy.

[rurallib]

9. this is the Libertarian party we are talking about.

do you really believe that they have enough strength in those states to beat the Democrats and Republicans to take the states electoral votes? Massachusetts? Ohio? Michigan?

[CK_John]

11. Weld was well liked in MA, Johnson in NM and Trump just blew off the current Gov,

Wallace and Perot won in MI, NH is very big Libertarian, and if Kasich supports Johnson they might take Ohio.

[rurallib]

16. they may well eat into Republican party votes

but there is still the Democratic party. Unless you are convinced that Hillary will be doing so badly that all the Libertarians need to do is to defeat Trump and the Republicans.

Not sure if the Libertarians have ever gotten more that 5% across the country or in any individual state for that matter. Few people know Johnson now. Is he alone popular enough to overtake both Clinton and Trump in any state, even his home state? Was Weld that popular in Mass? IIRC Romney got his ass kicked in Mass by Obama. Romney was probably close to being as popular as Weld in Mass.

But if you think Clinton and the Dems will be totally tanking in the above mentioned states and the race in those states is only between Trump & Johnson, then maybe Trump's negatives are so bad that Johnson gets the votes in those states.

[CK_John]

17. I'm not convinced Trump will be the GOP candidate, and it may be Biden for DNC.

[karynnj]

18. imagine a race where the divide is similar to 2000 (and Trump takes FL )

Trump gets ALL states given to Bush except one that Bush got and Hillary gets all the ones credited to Gore. With the 2000 map, even switching NH would have meant Gore won even with Bush keeping FL. I know the census has changed since then so it may be that this exact possibility does work.

What is more likely is that the affect could be like that of Anderson in 1980 when after the Democratic party split between a (by general election time) unpopular candidate and Ted Kennedy. Anderson, a liberal/moderate Republican, won enough votes to tilt normally Democratic states to Reagan - even though one could have thought two Republicans in the race would hurt the Republicans.

This year is VERY different and there will be people in both party not happy and looking to see what they agree on with the third party candidate. The REAL interesting poll would be if they sampled just some key swing states on who they will vote for giving them first the choice of Clinton and Trump and then explicitly the 3 choices. The key is who will LOSE the more votes to the Libertarian.

This becomes a bigger threat is he gets to the threshold of being in the debates. (This is why I hope everyone here offered that choice even now - say HRC - even if they hate the idea of it.) My concern is that the libertarian views on social issues and on not intervening internationally might interest some people now identifying as progressive or Democrat. What they have to stop and think about is how bad libertarians are on economic issues.

I would hope that there are more Republicans who will be sane enough to reject voting for Trump. I would love any insight from people in swing states - PA, VA, NH, CO etc

[janx]

20. People in CO might be inclined

to vote for Johnson since he was involved in pot legalization there. He just gave up a CEO position with Cannabis Sativa in order to run.

[beachbumbob]

4. 3rd party candidates can be in the debates but

Doubtful trump would consent for obvious reasons

[Tal Vez]

5. As things now stand,

I think that they have to average 15% in the polls, but some kind of standard will be set.

The only way that their presence can send this election to the House is if they finish first in so many states that no other candidate receives a majority of electoral votes. If there are three candidates and the Libertarian candidate finishes second in every state (which would be quite an accomplishment), one of the other two candidates would receive a majority of the electoral votes and become president.

[beachbumbob]

7. Nope...no 3rd party candidate will win a state...didn't happen 1980...

Not in 1992 when Perot got 20 million votes..

[CK_John]

13. This year the parties are fighting to stay alive. The voters are in a mean

mood and looking for an excuse to screw the system.

[trumad]

15. The parties are staying to stay alive?

WTF are you talking about.

The Dem party is just fine.

Fucking Libertarians are idiots and anyone who advocates for them are idiots as well.

[CK_John]

19. This is the year of the Brand not the Party. Also prime example of an angry, foulmouthed voter..

[librechik]

21. ha ha no n/t