Paul Krugman: Trump Won't Release Tax Returns Because He Has Been Lying About His Wealth

[KamaAina]

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/05/paul-krugman-trump-wont-release-tax-returns-because-he-has-been-lying/

In his latest New York Times column, Paul Krugman explores some of the reasons why Donald Trump is claiming he can't release his taxes (because of course, he can), and argues it is most likely he isn't anywhere near as rich as he claims to be:

Mr. Trump’s excuse, that he can’t release his returns while they’re being audited, is an obvious lie. On the contrary, the fact that he’s being audited (or at least that he says he’s being audited) should make it easier for him to go public — after all, he needn’t fear triggering an audit! Clearly, he must be hiding something. What?

It could be how little he pays in taxes, a revelation that hurt Mitt Romney in 2012. But I doubt it; given how Mr. Trump rolls, he’d probably boast that his ability to game the tax system shows how smart he is compared to all the losers out there.

So my guess, shared by a number of observers, is that the dirty secret hidden in those returns is that he isn’t as rich as he claims to be. In Trumpworld, the revelation that he’s only worth a couple of billion — maybe even less than a billion — would be utterly humiliating.

[yeoman6987]

1. He's keeping something but not wealth amount

Nowhere on a tax form does net worth come into the equation.

[Skwmom]

36. I agree.

[Hoyt]

54. Nothing that precisely measures wealth maybe, but there is info that is

useful. If he's in closely held deals, there are special schedules. His income would be a very rough measure. Depreciation schedules, capital income and loses, would tell you something. Comparisons year-to- year wpuld he of value.

If he is filing a 1040 short form, we'd know for sure he full of it.

[BillZBubb]

2. I used to have a lot of respect for Krugman. I mean a lot.

Now he's become something of a kook. He's been making a lot of very questionable (actually foolish) comments about finance and economics.

In general, you cannot tell from tax returns how much wealth a person has. You can tell how much income they've generated, but income is not wealth. Krugman either knows this and is lying or he is totally clueless.

[riderinthestorm]

3. You beat me to it. Tax returns don't tell the story, especially with hidden wealth

Krugman is so utterly in bed with the Clintons, it's harming his credibility.

[BootinUp]

9. Earnings from investments must be reported, taxes on assets

may not be perfect, but pretty good for a swag.

Also itemized deductions can be revealing.

No, I think Krugman makes a good point.

What is not surprising is that the Bern Squad doesn't like him.

[Skittles]

10. they don't like anyone who isn't Feeling the Bern

[Skwmom]

37. Not when you have large holding in real estate.

[pnwmom]

42. Real estate taxes are reported, and assessments can then be checked. It would be EASIER,

not harder, to estimate the net worth of someone whose primary wealth is in real estate.

Now, if he's hiding much of his wealth in the Caymans, that wouldn't be counted.

[former9thward]

55. Real estate taxes would not be reported.

Most would be paid by companies which file their own tax returns. Trump, the individual, would not be filing those. I hope you are not a tax adviser.

[pnwmom]

57. If those companies are owned by stockholders the companies will have to publicly report finances.

If they are privately owned then Trump will have to report them. Either way, the taxes will be reported.

[former9thward]

58. Not how it works.

Companies file their OWN returns. Trump would not. There is no way you can tell from IRS forms how much wealth someone who has a lot of real estate has.

[Zynx]

12. Not really, no. You can develop estimates based on the income from assets.

Additionally, interest payments on his real estate holdings would let you know how big his debt loads are, which can be subtracted from the known assessed values of his properties.

I could develop a pretty good sense of the net worth of an individual from their tax returns.

[Major Nikon]

14. "In general"

We aren't talking about "in general", we are talking about someone who owns a lot of things like buildings which are publicly registered and securities which are publicly traded. So there's already a lot of information that's out there even without his tax returns. With them you get a more complete picture. Much of Trump's income comes from capital gains. Knowing how much someone makes (or loses) in specific categories of capital gains gives you a wealth (pardon the pun) of information on how much capital they have.

[BillZBubb]

24. Baloney. I said in general, because on some simple returns you could guess.

If Trump held equity in such and such a company, sold a portion and took capital gains, YOU HAVE NO CLUE how much remaining equity he has.

If Trump holds equity in a large number of entities, the situation is compounded.

No doubt Trump has a large, diversified portfolio with complicated corporate structures which make it very difficult for an outsider to generate a realistic overall value.

[Major Nikon]

45. On a simple return it would be harder to guess

So it's starting to get a little deep.

You most certainly would have a clue about how much equity Trump has by looking at how much he's making from trades. We're talking about a discrepancy that's between less than 1 billion and his claim of 10 billion. If Trump is claiming 10 billion in assets but is getting income indicative of less than 1 billion in assets, then he's either a piss poor businessman, or he's lying.

[joeybee12]

27. No, it's because he questioning Berni-nomics, as have most reputable economists

Ridiculous...and he's spot on on this.

[BillZBubb]

34. Bullshit. You Hillary fanatics will believe anything.

You do not have to list assets and liabilities in a tax return. There is no requirement to do so. Therefore there is NO way to accurately determine net worth from a tax return. That is a fact. You can speculate, but that would just be a wild guess on a complex return like Trump's.

Krugman is wrong on this as he has been on several key items like Glass-Steagall. It is sad how pathetic he has become.

[joeybee12]

39. Nope...

Facts apparently have a different definition in the Bernie echo chamber than everywhere else. You can come very, very close...and if tRump is hiding stuff, then it wouldn't be on taxes, which means he's a cheat.

He's been wrong, but not on this...and Bernie-nomics doesn't add up no matter how you supporters try and fudge the math

[BillZBubb]

43. Simplistic BULLSHIT. You are making a fool of yourself.

As I explained, you cannot find the value of all assets from a tax return, particularly a complex return like Trump's. That is a fact. Quit making up bullshit.

Krugman is wrong again--he's on a losing streak.

[joeybee12]

47. Read below...yes you can...

Stop embarassing yourself.

[BillZBubb]

48. You continue to make a fool of yourself. Not surprising.

No complete list of assets = no total wealth value. No tax return will have a list and valuation of all assets.

[joeybee12]

53. Keep digging in..but you know if Krugman

was in bernie's corner, you would be reccing this thread..

[Nevernose]

65. You're probably making Krugman sad

It's okay, though: he can use those tears to polish his Nobel Prize in economics.

[Skink]

4. Since its in the Caymans and other such places we'll never know.

[tblue37]

5. I have seen convincing estimates that he is worth about $2 billion at the most,

and quite possibly much less--not chump change, but not the $10 billion he claims, or even the $4 billion some others estimate.

This is from a Mother Jones article:

"Donald Trump Has Lost Between $1 and $6 Billion Over His Business Career"

<SNIP>

“Every year, Trump shares a lot of information with us that helps us get to the figures we publish. But he also consistently pushes for a higher net worth—especially when it comes to the value of his personal brand,” Forbes reporter Erin Carlyle wrote this June, explaining the magazine’s assessment that Trump was worth $4.1 billion, less than half of his claimed net worth. A subsequent review by Bloomberg found he was worth $2.9 billion.

....Perhaps the most deeply researched account of his wealth is a decade old: the book TrumpNation, by former New York Times journalist Tim O’Brien, who found three sources close to Trump who estimated that he was worth between $150 million and $250 million....Trump wound up suing O’Brien for defamation, claiming his book had damaged his business. The suit was eventually dismissed, but not before Trump sat for a deposition in which he admitted that he routinely exaggerated the values of his properties.

....That 2007 deposition also revealed that in 2005, two separate banks had assessed Trump’s assets and liabilities before agreeing to lend him money. One, North Fork Bank, decided he was worth $1.2 billion, while Deutsche Bank found he was worth no more than $788 million.

So....at a guess, Trump is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 billion in 2015. Anything above that is based on valuations of his personal brand—which might be worth something in theory, but buys no jet fuel or campaign ads. In terms of actual, tangible net worth, he's worth considerably less than the $3 billion (or $8 billion) he'd be worth if he'd just dumped his share of the family fortune into a Vanguard fund.

<SNIP>

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/09/donald-trump-has-lost-between-1-and-6-billion-over-his-business-career

[Skittles]

16. he is worthless to me

[BillZBubb]

25. Whether $2 billion or $10 billion he is still a very wealthy person.

It's actually very silly to even quibble of this. He's one of the .001%'ers. That's all we need to know.

[joeybee12]

40. It's not silly...

He claims huge wealth...that's his major qualification...don't understand why you are simply brushing this off...do you hate Krugman so much since he doesn't bow down to Bernie that you're taking tRump's side?

[BillZBubb]

46. You don't think $2 billion is huge wealth? or possibly $4 billion? It is silly.

Where is the line?

You are like a right winger. When I opposed bush's invasion of Iraq they called me a "Saddam lover". You are using the same pathetic attack. You must be so proud.

[basselope]

6. *FACEPALM*

How does a respected economist NOT understand tax returns?

[Zynx]

13. I think he does, but, first of all, economics and finance are not the same thing.

Second, I can tell from someone's tax returns quite a lot about their net worth. Not precise amounts, but I could certainly arrive at whether they had significant income-producing assets and how much debt they hold.

[basselope]

15. Not really...

It depends how they hold their assets. IF they have significant holdings in C corps, you would only know the extent of their holdings IF dividends are paid in a particular year.

I've been an entrepreneur for 15+ years now and it is very VERY easy to completely manipulate your income and perceived net worth in any given year, depending upon what you wanted to show. When my wife and I wanted to buy property, we made sure to have 2 years of strong income and paid down the credit cards until they were only at 20% of total owed. Once we owned the property, we flipped it, took lower salaries, allowed the credit cards to be larger (b/c interest income is delectable when used for business) and suddenly things looked much different.

After a company I co-founded was purchased in 2014, I re-invested a large chunk into other companies. Only if you pull that specific year would you see my re-investment, b/c I was able to take it off the total amount of capital gains. However, with things like stocks, unless they pay dividends, you don't see them unless I sell. I could own 1000 shares of Pandora or 100,000 and you wouldn't know it from my tax returns, unless I sold them, b/c they don't pay dividends.

I really have no clue why Trump is hiding his returns.. really REALLY stupid as far as I am concerned.. but I don't want him to be president, so.. YAY.

[jamzrockz]

20. How about charity donations

to liberal/progressive groups like planned parenthood. Do you think that would show on your tax return?

[basselope]

23. OH YES! Very much so.

Me thinks you are onto something.

I know he gave to Clinton Foundation (probably more than once) but that only helps him, because he can call her a bought and paid for politician (he can say "I have the receipts&quot .. BUT if he gave to planned parenthood or something like that... he would be in lots of trouble with the people he is counting on.

[joeybee12]

30. Yeah, it does...

Just because he's spot on about Berni-nomics not adding up, it's ridiculous you question him over every little thing...is there to end to trashing everyone who doesn't bow before Bernie?

[basselope]

49. But, it just doesn't.

[joeybee12]

51. Hard to argue with such "reason"

[basselope]

59. scroll up for reason

[joeybee12]

41. Um, most candidates will realease more than one year...

Standard is 10, so yeah, Krugman knows what he's talking about...we're not talking about a single year. Mittens only released 3, but he was hiding a lot from the public so he only went back 3 years.

[basselope]

50. "standard" is whatever it is... this didn't exist prior to Nixon.

And 10 years will give a better general picture, but still you cannot get an idea of net worth from 10 years of tax returns.

Krugman should know better.

[joeybee12]

52. Yes you can...and it was standard until Mittens rMoney

You should know better....the hate towards a man who doesn't bow down to Bernie is affecting your judgment...besides, trUmp not being as rich as he claims is the most logical explanation...and others..try Fortune magazine, they have been able to reconstruct just how less trump actually has than he says he has...his major qualification is his immense wealth...and he's hiding that it's a lie.

[basselope]

61. Wrong.

Since you cant judge net worth from tax returns.


Someone nailed it earlier... what does show up on tax returns is charitable contributions and if Trump gave to progressive leaning organizations... it would derail him with the voters he was counting on.

Krigman is just plain wrong.... again.

[Zynx]

62. His stock holdings are, by his supposed disclosure, largely dividend paying holdings.

We could develop a pretty good estimate of his total holdings from that.

As for his real estate holdings, those are almost always held in LLCs. We could see how much in debt and property taxes he has on each property. We could then arrive at good estimates of his equity position in each property.

With someone in his position, I bet we could figure it out.

[BillZBubb]

26. Baloney, not on the returns of someone like Trump.

You wouldn't even be close. The structure of his holdings is beyond a doubt very complex. The tax returns wouldn't tell you much at all.

[Zynx]

63. Assuming he submits all of his related documentation for the LLCs he holds his real estate in, we

could figure it out pretty easily, at least within a general range.

[Logical]

7. And Hillary will not release her Wall Street transcripts because she loves them!!!

[Logical]

19. Bullshit, I WANT to know what she said in those speeches. Any real dem would. It matters because....

it will show if she thinks they are an issue or not.

Drop the whining. You just are worried what they will expose.

[joeybee12]

31. you could easily google it and find out what people who were there

have to say...but that might give you one less Repuke talking point.

Besides, apples and oranges...

[BillZBubb]

29. Are you logic deprived? Apparently so.

Asking questions about Hillary's activities does not equate to being pro trump.

You sound just like the right wingers during the Iraq war build up. Any of us who questioned bush's decision to start a war were labelled "Sadaam lovers" by the wingnuts. You are just like those bush drones.

[gwheezie]

38. What does that have to do with trump?

The reason we know about how much Hillary made speaking to wall street is her taxes. How do we know trump isn't donating to Hillary. That's going to make it hard for Bernie or bust folks to vote for trump. What to do, what to do.

[Wounded Bear]

8. The Good Doctor blows it on the wealth issue...

I think what The Donald is afraid of when releasing his taxes is that they will reveal some of the businesses and people he has been doing business with, some of whom are probably a bit on the shady side. That long in New York real estate and construction, there must be some mob ties in there somewhere.

[joeybee12]

32. Um...where do business partners/associates show up on tax returns?

He's right and he's not the first one making this point.

[Wounded Bear]

44. Not necessarily on the 'returns'...

but on the receipts and supporting documents.

[GoCubsGo]

35. I wouldn't be surprised if it's both.

Along with heaps of tax evasion.

[JosephAlanWatson]

11. Shady Donald

Doubt it. Think there is some shady stuff in there though.

[pampango]

17. "The revelation that Trump has been lying about something won't do much to harm him given he lies

on literally a minute to minute basis, but Trump's wealth is essentially his only real claim to fame. Of course should Trump decide to release his tax returns and concede he is in fact a medium rich asshole and not a mega rich asshole, he'll likely lie about that too (the government underestimates the value of his brand and so on). But Americans love him because he appears to be a mega rich asshole who takes what he wants from whomever he wants, and won't apologize for it.

Should it turn out that he is significantly less wealthy that he claims he is, it undermines the image he has carefully crafted over the years -- a chip in the armor that will be exploited mercilessly by his ever growing list of mortal enemies.

So basically, don't expect Trump to release his tax returns any time soon.

[Octafish]

21. Like his, um, hands.

Smaller in real life.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

22. Can't he release a 1040 form with any numbers he feels like?

Is it illegal to release false information about income and tax?

As long as he doesn't submit the false return to the IRS, is there any crime?

I was skeptical about rMoney's 1040 when he released it.

But I don't know the legality of this.

[LyndaG]

28. Yup

A few years ago, Lawrence O'Donnell said on his program that he didn't think Trump would want to open his books if he ran for President.

[CobaltBlue]

33. KamaAina—A Hillary Clinton Website; A Corrupt Clinton ‘Liberal’

No thank you.

I reject both The Daily Banter and Paul Krugman.

[KamaAina]

56. Trump-bashing is Trump-bashing.

[CobaltBlue]

64. KamaAina—I consider the source[s].

[DonCoquixote]

60. You know, this part might be tinfoilish

But hear me out.

According to Citizens united, if a candidate was suspected of getting funded from foreign sources, there is nothing you can do to call for an investigation, and not much you could do even if you got caught.

Now, let's say you happened to be one of America's rivals/enemies with a ton of cash, let's say you happen to be Vlad Putin, worth 70 Billion, or Self-proclaimed "Caliph" Al-Bagdaddi, or Kim Il Jong, or (insert rich person here). If you wanted to ensure an incompetent fool ran America, all you would have to do is wrtie checks, especially if the person insists they fund themselves with their own money.

Just a point to ponder.

[gwheezie]

66. This was my original horror of citizens united

You have multinational corporations with shareholders from all over the world being able to buy elections. It was bad enough when Americans could do it. Now Putin can donate to trump.

[TeamPooka]

67. K & R nt