TPM: The Electoral Map Is Looking Pretty Darn Good For Clinton Right Now

[RandySF]

The Cook Political report is out with its new projections of the electoral map for November's presidential election, and it's is looking better and better for Hillary Clinton.

Cook moved 11 states in Dems' direction Thursday and redefined critical swing states Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from being toss-up to lean Democratic. They also moved two congressional districts that allocate electors. In Nebraska's Second, Cook moved the district from solid Republican to tossup. Maine's Second moved from solid Democratic to likely Democratic.

It's early and all is subject to change as Clinton and Donald Trump pivot from the primaries to the general election. But, according to Cook–which analyzed polls and demographic shifts to project their electoral model–the election is moving in Democrats' direction at the moment. Cook also notes that it may not have always gone Clinton's way. Cook writes that Clinton "is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans." Trump, however, has far greater deficits as he struggles to pick up support from women and Latino voters.

"With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority," the Cook Political Report team writes.

The Cook Political Report also moved New Mexico from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic and North Carolina to toss-up. Arizona, Georgia and Indiana remain in the Republican column for now, but were all moved to being less solidly Republican.

Clinton's expanding map could also give down ballot candidates a leg up. In states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida and Arizona where there are competitive Senate races, the Clinton campaign's ground game infrastructure could be a major support system for Democratic senate hopefuls.



http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/the-electoral-map-is-looking-pretty-darn-good-for-democrats-right-now

[pangaia]

1. What does this have to do with Clinton

A dead possum should be able to beat trump.

[pangaia]

5. No. Not at all.

While your childish, insulting sarcasm is noted, my statement is the truth.

The accurate "headline" should be, "Trump destined to be the the worst presidential candidate in two centuries."

[LannyDeVaney]

7. Actually, no reason to put the word headline in quotes sarcastically...

the headline is what it is.

But, it doesn't matter. Enjoy you summer. And I love Bob Dylan so rock on!

[pnwmom]

8. Huh. Then I guess Bernie couldn't even do as well as a dead possum.

[CobaltBlue]

2. Oh, Lordy!

It is, once again, the same old tired variation of an electoral map.

If Donald Trump is, according to recent polls (like from CNN), losing so resoundingly—self-identified Republican (close to 20 percent); white women; all female voters; non-whites—that map is looking more advantageous for him.

In other words, these declining Republican support numbers would put a lot more states in play for potential Democratic pickups—not just Arizona and Georgia but also Indiana and Missouri and Montana and even Texas and South Carolina and quite possibly more.

The recent numbers on just how bad Trump is suggests he is an electoral bomb who can deliver a 40-state landslide—with an electoral-vote score which would reach 400—to the nominee from the Democratic Party. But, of course, this best-case scenario has Democrats retaining the 26 Obama/2012 states with a pickup of North Carolina. Less than 30 states.

Oh, Lordy!

[Ford_Prefect]

4. Sadly they do not account for the kind of vote manipulation and voter disenfranchisement

we have so recently witnessed. On the kind of scale the dark money can enable more than a few contests may not be as certain as Cook would have us believe.

Trump may or may not be toast just yet. The down ticket republicans are likely another matter, which is to say nothing of states where gerrymandered districts bias the outcome.

[Chicago1980]

6. To which voter disenfranchisement are you referring?

Just curious...

[Ford_Prefect]

10. Every variety we've seen so far.

Voter Id laws, selective purging of rolls, rank intimidation of immigrants and other groups, altered registration listings, relocated voting sites, reduced voting hours, reduced early voting periods and locations, severely reduced number of voting sites in certain districts, voter rolls purged in error by "inaccurate" data or by companies specializing in removing un-desirable voters, or older voters allegedly removed or incorrectly registered due to age or prior voting attendance, previously registered democratic voters curiously listed as independent or republican, gerrymandered districts, new registration forms altered after the fact or simply dumped in the trash by paid agents, former felons removed "erroneously" due to name matching software that in fact doesn't match names accurately......

It seems like nearly every week we hear of a new wrinkle, or several of the old ones. It is not due to errors of bureaucracy. It happens because someone is enabling it on large and small scale as often as they can get away with it. It happens because each state is responsible for the rules and how they are applied. Unlike any other Democracy on earth we do not have federal rules and laws making the process correct and identical and transparent in every district, precinct and state. It happens because it favors those who win best by making the voters unable to vote. Currently that is most often the Republican Party. However there are reasons to wonder whether some of this was recently practiced to disable certain democrats from voting in some of the primary elections, too.

[Chicago1980]

11. I agree.

[fred v]

9. Clinton 379, Trump 159

And I'm being very generous the the Donald!

[Chicago1980]

12. No complacency for November.