Forty five districts to flip in a Democratic wave election = #ControlCongress

[L. Coyote]

We can do this and more easily, simply by voting. Who knew?

45 districts to flip in a Democratic wave election
By joeknapp Apr 30, 2016

The Cook partisan voting index ranks the 435 Congressional districts according to percent advantage for either party, e.g., R+5 or D+10 relative to presidential preference. The map above shows highlighted in yellow the 45 districts currently held by a Republican but with less than an R+5 advantage, arguably the lowest hanging fruit within striking distance in a wave election that Trump might bring.

A 45-vote swing would put Congress in Democratic control.

Below are some detail maps of the districts. ...........

[blue neen]

1. We have a chance in PA-12.

Erin McClelland is a fantastic candidate and could beat that do-nothing Rep. Gerrymander, Keith Rothfus.

[silvershadow]

2. Bump

[egalitegirl]

5. These are Bernie wave voters

Most of them switched to D thanks to Bernie Sanders.

[L. Coyote]

7. That's why I say Bernie can win Congress, nomination or not. If a real revolution is happening

it does not stop with the Dem nomination, nor should it. A real revolution does not seek just the presidential nomination.

[edhopper]

3. Too bad

DWS and the DNC don't seem interested.

[truebluegreen]

6. Yeah, if they had a majority in the House

(and presumably the Senate) they might have to actually Do Stuff. But, no worries, guys!--it could still be Incremental Stuff.

[JoePhilly]

8. Sounds more like some Bernie fans are uninterested.

[edhopper]

9. Are you talking about me?

Or saying some Bernie supporters are saying they aren't going to vote?

[JoePhilly]

10. Both. You sound far more interested in DWS and the DNC ...

... then on winning those districts ... I mean, you could have easily agreed that we need to win those districts, before shitting on DWS and the DNC ...

.... and past that ... yes, plenty of Bernie supporters on this site are threatening all manner "not voting". Some even seem to suggest that the Dems need to lose so the country can collapse under a GOP Prez and Congress, so the revolution can occur.

[edhopper]

11. Just pointing out

that DWS has done Jack shit to gain seats.

Of course we need to retake the House, but why should we give her a pass if she isn't doing the work that needs to be done for that.

Dean had a 50 State plan, she has a save the incumbents plan.

[Hortensis]

14. EdHopper, they're working very hard to make this

happen. Yes, political parties are very weak compared to what they once were, but they're far from out of it. The DNC and DCCC are the major institutional forces directing and funding this. Our presidential candidates raise money and make appearances to make this happen.

[edhopper]

15. What I have seen is

DWS has given up in some States. Dean wanted to contest every GOP seat. DWS wants to save incumbents.
But I hope you are right.

[Hortensis]

32. Don't we all. Such a crazy year, most experts

nowhere near forecasting, all hedging like crazy, Cook Report literally suggesting the possibility of everything from a GOP rout to a Democrat route. Very irritating. IMO, the presidency and Senate are ours to win and ours to lose, as are over a dozen house seats, with many more possible. We'll never have a more favorable situation at this point.

[edhopper]

33. I think we will take the Pres. in a walk

and that will help take the Senate. We will gain House seats but taking the House depends on how many GOP voters Trump turns off and how much DWS and the DNC actually work for it.

[Hortensis]

34. Agree. And above all on what GOP voters

decide to do this year. There is still tremendous insistence among many that their big enemy and purpose remain the Democrats.

Recently learned a good fishing buddy/friend of ours can't vote for our ALEC-member, extremely right wing, religious-right minister congressman because he's not conservative enough. (!!). The congressman's sooo conservative that I hope every year he'll cash out by moving on to some lucrative position with business, but he's not so entirely crazy that he'll vote to burn the WHOLE DC barn down. So our friend'll probably vote for Paul Broun, the evolution, etc., are "lies straight from the pit of hell" guy from the GOP science committee. He's running in our district this time.

(Btw, we like our friend and his wife a lot for the decency that allows them to be friends with such as us in spite of profound political differences. Not all conservatives are alike by any means. If he'd grown up in California, instead of rural Georgia...)

[WhiteTara]

4. K&R

[L. Coyote]

12. I expected this thread to get more response. Joe Knapp is an old time DUer of Ohio 2004 fame.

Last edited Sun May 1, 2016, 10:39 AM - Edit history (1)

Who remembers his great work on Cuyahoga Co. correlating race to election irregularities. Too little attention has gone to the fact that twice stolen votes from minority communities put Bush in office.

[Kip Humphrey]

26. I remember.

[Wounded Bear]

13. K & R ......for visibility..nt

[davidn3600]

16. Doesn't matter. A Democrat House even struggled to pass ACA

We aren't ever going to get anything better than that.

[L. Coyote]

17. Actually, it matters immensely. For example, the difference between $7.25 and $12.00 an hour isn't

trivial when your children go hungry.

[edhopper]

19. But pass it they did, and it is better than what was before.

we will get a lot of things that are better, just not everything we want.
Dodd-Frank isn't great, but better than what the GOP would do.
We can go down the list.

[Hekate]

23. "Democrat" House? It matters immensely: Committee chairmanships mean a LOT

You think a Democratic-majority House would have allowed the Benghazi Committee to be a kangaroo court?

[davidn3600]

24. Well....

Considering the Democrats didn't even investigate Bush-Cheney.... No, I don't believe they would have investigated Benghazi.

[joshcryer]

31. Wow.

[pnwmom]

38. They had a choice between going on perpetual investigations or working together to pass the ACA.

I'm glad they chose the latter.

[struggle4progress]

18. Hatch chicks before count

[edhopper]

20. Agreed it is

wishful thinking.

[struggle4progress]

21. I didn't say it was wishful thinking: I said hatch before counting

[edhopper]

25. argumentative

to the last I see. Even when I agree with you.
Have a nice day.

[Hekate]

22. My gosh, that's the very conservative inland region of California on the map

Hot diggity.

[Kip Humphrey]

27. 5.01% is nothing in a change election.

[L. Coyote]

36. Exactly. This is so do-able if the populace is motivated.

[LonePirate]

28. Do we have candidates running in all 45 of these districts?

[Wellstone ruled]

29. Well,Nevada 3rd will go Blue.

Sad part,we have two or three qualified Candidates and a State Law that allows a Candidate not to be a resident of that District. Lately the Rethugs are struggling to get traction. Which is wonderful to say the least,and they still are running against Obama and Reid and in that lies the real story. We can easily pick up two seats if we get our people to the poles. Hispanic Community which is about 60 % or more,do to the Rethugs screwing the last Census count in Clark County,is really energized with several young well educated and active Latino persons on the Ballot. Hey,they are our new Democratic Party here in Nevada.

[mahina]

30. Please.

[Liberal_in_LA]

35. Please vote democrats

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. If I am reading that correctly

This places Issa's district at play. As far as I know, it is not considered to be in play

[L. Coyote]

39. Issa going down with his cronies would make November really special.

Not like we have a hard sell! How can we not clean House if people actually voted.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. That propaganda does not work with me

Want free trade agreements vote democrats

[L. Coyote]

41. I want free trade agreements. I just don't want corporations to write them for us.

[madinmaryland]

42. No. I want Fair Trade. Not trade geared to the 1%. Nt.

[nadinbrzezinski]

43. Guess what? You are getting them written by Pfizer, and Coke and Chrysler

they are far from fair, and guess what else? DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING FOR THEM.

[L. Coyote]

44. So you admit you were wrong

to attack the Dems for what you blame on others now?

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. What that the dems are voting for free trade agreements written by Pfizer

coke and Chrysler? Agreements that weaken labor rights, and social safety nets all over, like oh TPP? And that DEMOCRATS voted for the TTP. What part am I getting wrong here exactly? Do tell... or did I miss the change in registration for my local congressman and POTUS and they changed it to Rs while one pushed for it and the other voted for it? Fast track if you remember?

By the way, labor will not walk precincts or phone bank for that democrat incidentally.