I think we're going to see as big a shift in urban planning as we did in the 1950s soon

[Recursion]

"soon" being "in the next two decades or so".

Within that time, I think we're going to largely switch from automobiles like we use now to driverless electric cars. Just as the modern automobile made the modern cities and suburbs, the driverless electric car is going to be what shapes the living spaces of the next generation. There are a lot of things to think about.

First, you probably won't own your car. Why bother? It's an expense and a headache you don't need. US automobile lending is about $1 Trillion, so that's a trillion dollars of household debt that isn't going to roll over to the next generation. Also, your house won't need a garage, or even a driveway, so new houses will end up being built without them, and existing garages will be repurposed (perhaps finished and rented out as a bachelor apartment, increasing the housing supply).

There will be fewer cars total, by quite a bit. Most cars spend most of their time sitting idle today; with a fleet of driverless cars you only need as many physical vehicles as you have at the peak rush, which is usually about half of the total cars in an area. This will be great for scrappers and metal exporters.

I think the driverless cars will do most of their trips without a human in them, for that matter: you don't actually need to go to the store; the autonomous car will go from its depot to the warehouse to wherever you are and deliver what you bought to you (and for that matter the warehouse will probably pay for the trip, and even own its own delivery car fleet).

Urban planners really have no idea what to make of driverless cars, any more than planners in the 1940s could predict what suburbs would become. I suspect we'll see cities get more dense and suburbs kind of "green" out to less dense residential areas, more like what rural areas are like now. But we really need planners to be thinking more about this, because I think it's going to be as big a change as we saw a half century ago.

[pangaia]

1. If I can't have a car,

WHERE DO I KEEP ALL MY STUFF?

[KatyMan]

2. This and 3D printers

Will change the world enormously. Like internet-invention level societal change.
Great post!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Did you hear about the young guy who made his own braces for

practically nothing - story on NPR? Bought a cheap impression kit, used a 3 D printer, and produced several plastic iterations he thought would straighten his teeth - and it worked !

[roamer65]

3. Where else will the homeless live?

No one should have to call a car "home" in this country. It bothers me every time I hear of it.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

5. This won't happen until the oil runs out. And then it will be too late. nt