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Mother Jones: 3 reasons why "#NeverTrump Republicans Shouldn't Celebrate Yet"
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/04/donald-trump-ted-cruz-wisconsin-primary
There are at least three reasons why Republicans ought not yet celebrate. First, whether Cruz is on the march or not, the Trump-fueled civil war within the party is far from done. Since the start of the campaign, political observers have noted that there seems to be a ceiling on Trump's support within the Republican electorate. At first, it appeared the limit was in the 25 to 33 percent range. And when there were more than a dozen candidates, this was certainly a large enough bloc to provide Trump an impressive plurality. Moreover, at one stage, Trump's ceiling did rise and reach nearly 50 percent in national polling. In recent weeks, Trump has dropped to the 32 to 43 percent range, while maintaining a national lead over Cruz of 7 to 13 points. Bottom line: There are a lot of Trumpites, and they are not going anywhere. Even if Cruz somehow manages to consolidate the non-Trump vote—a difficult task while Kasich sticks it out—Trump will continue to claim a large chunk of supporters craving his furious mix of populism, nativism, and nationalism. True, Trump may not be able to expand that slice any longer. (The derogatory manner in which he crushed several primary foes and forced their exits from the race likely alienated the supporters of these candidates.) But many of Trump's backers remain angry: angry at Washington, angry at the world, and especially angry at the GOP. Putting aside the question of whether Trump will bolt the party and run as an independent, his supporters will not be easily absorbed by the party. Riots or not in Cleveland, they could well be a disruptive element within the GOP. By the way, a recent poll notes that 52 percent of Republican voters believe that if Trump ends up with the most delegates yet not quite a majority, he still should receive the nomination; 40 percent don't think so. That means that if a Cruz surge does prevent Trump from reaching the magic number of 1,237 delegates but the billionaire finishes in the top spot, the GOP establishment will tick off not only Trump voters but also other Republicans if it plots to deny Trump the nomination.
To get to the front of the pack, Trump exploited the politics of hate that had been encouraged by Republicans throughout the Obama years (see birtherism), and he inflamed these passions within the tea party base—and directed them against the GOP itself. A primary loss for Trump in the Badger State or elsewhere will not douse the flames. They will continue to threaten the house the Republicans built.
Reason No. 2: If Cruz's win in Wisconsin does somehow signal Trump's day will not come, #NeverTrump insider Republicans could end up being stuck with…well, Cruz. The primary process has to play out, and there's no telling what will happen at the convention. (Maybe Megyn Kelly will be nominated.) But certainly Cruz's odds have improved. And he is hardly the candidate the GOP power brokers (such as they are) yearned for at the start of this crazy process. It's not just that Cruz is widely regarded—on his side of the aisle—as an arrogant and opportunistic jerk. He is not a candidate for the swing states. He does not, as the political pros say, change the map. (As in, what state can he win that Mitt Romney didn't?) He is a strident ideologue and a committed obstructionist. And he's proud of that. He boasts about having precipitated a government shutdown and praises himself as a "courageous" conservative who doesn't fancy cutting deals. He enthusiastically decries abortion rights, gay rights, and gun safety measures. He's in camp that claims climate change is a hoax. His appeal does not extend far beyond voters who are seeking a die-hard rightist to eviscerate the federal government.
There are at least three reasons why Republicans ought not yet celebrate. First, whether Cruz is on the march or not, the Trump-fueled civil war within the party is far from done. Since the start of the campaign, political observers have noted that there seems to be a ceiling on Trump's support within the Republican electorate. At first, it appeared the limit was in the 25 to 33 percent range. And when there were more than a dozen candidates, this was certainly a large enough bloc to provide Trump an impressive plurality. Moreover, at one stage, Trump's ceiling did rise and reach nearly 50 percent in national polling. In recent weeks, Trump has dropped to the 32 to 43 percent range, while maintaining a national lead over Cruz of 7 to 13 points. Bottom line: There are a lot of Trumpites, and they are not going anywhere. Even if Cruz somehow manages to consolidate the non-Trump vote—a difficult task while Kasich sticks it out—Trump will continue to claim a large chunk of supporters craving his furious mix of populism, nativism, and nationalism. True, Trump may not be able to expand that slice any longer. (The derogatory manner in which he crushed several primary foes and forced their exits from the race likely alienated the supporters of these candidates.) But many of Trump's backers remain angry: angry at Washington, angry at the world, and especially angry at the GOP. Putting aside the question of whether Trump will bolt the party and run as an independent, his supporters will not be easily absorbed by the party. Riots or not in Cleveland, they could well be a disruptive element within the GOP. By the way, a recent poll notes that 52 percent of Republican voters believe that if Trump ends up with the most delegates yet not quite a majority, he still should receive the nomination; 40 percent don't think so. That means that if a Cruz surge does prevent Trump from reaching the magic number of 1,237 delegates but the billionaire finishes in the top spot, the GOP establishment will tick off not only Trump voters but also other Republicans if it plots to deny Trump the nomination.
To get to the front of the pack, Trump exploited the politics of hate that had been encouraged by Republicans throughout the Obama years (see birtherism), and he inflamed these passions within the tea party base—and directed them against the GOP itself. A primary loss for Trump in the Badger State or elsewhere will not douse the flames. They will continue to threaten the house the Republicans built.
Reason No. 2: If Cruz's win in Wisconsin does somehow signal Trump's day will not come, #NeverTrump insider Republicans could end up being stuck with…well, Cruz. The primary process has to play out, and there's no telling what will happen at the convention. (Maybe Megyn Kelly will be nominated.) But certainly Cruz's odds have improved. And he is hardly the candidate the GOP power brokers (such as they are) yearned for at the start of this crazy process. It's not just that Cruz is widely regarded—on his side of the aisle—as an arrogant and opportunistic jerk. He is not a candidate for the swing states. He does not, as the political pros say, change the map. (As in, what state can he win that Mitt Romney didn't?) He is a strident ideologue and a committed obstructionist. And he's proud of that. He boasts about having precipitated a government shutdown and praises himself as a "courageous" conservative who doesn't fancy cutting deals. He enthusiastically decries abortion rights, gay rights, and gun safety measures. He's in camp that claims climate change is a hoax. His appeal does not extend far beyond voters who are seeking a die-hard rightist to eviscerate the federal government.
