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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDonald Trump is rising because the middle class is crashing
Today, these folks are usually referred to as working-class. But at the heart of Trumps appeal is the uncomfortable fact that they used to be something else. These people used to be Americas middle class.
Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published an interesting bit of research. The paper showed that middle class living standards have declined much more drastically than other metricssuch as median household incomewould suggest.
Analysts at the bank took survey data and sorted respondents by demographic criteria such as race, age, and education level, rather than income. They defined middle class families as those families headed by someone at least 40 years old who is white or Asian with exactly a high school diploma, or black or Hispanic with a two- or four-year college degree. These were the demographic profiles typical of people at the center of the US income distributionthe middle classback when the same survey was first taken in the late 1980s.
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As the chart above shows, it wasnt to last. Income inequality began to grow again in the early 1980s, and has since returned to the relatively high levels seen in the years before the Great Depression.
Why? Well, for many reasons. But the key is wages.
Incomes at the upper echelons of the American earnings distribution have surged in recent years, while incomes for the vast majority have stagnated. Data from US economist Robert Gordons recent book The Rise and Fall of American Growth actually show that real incomes have slightly decreased between 1972 and 2013 for the bottom 90% of US workers.
http://qz.com/634340/donald-trump-is-what-you-get-when-you-spend-three-decades-destroying-the-us-middle-class/
So it really shouldnt be surprise that some of the middle class whites are being drawn towards Trump. He's spewing populism and nationalism which become stronger magnets during times of uncertainty and fear. His anti-trade, anti-immigration, and anti-establishment views is going to resonate with those who feel the middle class is going to collapse.
And this is important because Hillary is vulnerable on these issues. Bernie is tapping into some of this anger that is also starting to brew on the left concerning income inequality. The upset she had in Michigan should be a wake-up call. The same kind of problem could happen to Hillary in the general election if Trump is able to convince union workers in the Rust Belt states that Hillary supports shipping out American jobs, supports free trade deals, and expanding programs like H1B visas that take jobs away from Americans. Trump could pick off votes just by claiming he will play hardball with China and Mexico and kick out immigrants.
The key factor here is that America's political stability is dependent on middle class stability. If American middle class was stable and wages were steadily increasing, Trump would have never made it this far. If the middle class crashes and we have another Great Depression, god only knows what strange and radical political ideas will flood into the mainstream. This is a worry that will go on well beyond this election, regardless of the results.
Fairgo
(1,571 posts)The man who takes a DRumpf in a solid gold toilet...
LiberalArkie
(15,719 posts)It is said that the top 1% went to Roosevelt and told him that if they could keep half their money that they would go for everything that Roosevelt wanted to do. They also built libraries, schools, parks etc with their money.
Now the 1% want to keep 99% or more of their money.
Enrique
(27,461 posts)the economic performance during Bill Clinton's presidency. As much as I oppose centrism, that is one line of reasoning that I don't have much of an answer for. But for some reason I don't hear it very much. At the last debate, Hillary did make that argument, but she ended up losing. So maybe I'm wrong. But I think with all the money she has, if it's her in the general election, that would be a killer thing to focus on.
i hope my comment has some relation to your OP, it's what came to mind...
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Perhaps the tech bubble is partly responsible. But you also need to take into account NAFTA went into effect in 1994 (which happened on Bill's watch). And that agreement has had an absolutely devastating impact on the manufacturing sector. It is a reason many are strongly opposed to TPP today.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Here is the reality. The American people have a right to be angry, he said during an interview before the start of his 1:30 p.m. rally.
What Trump is doing is what demagogues have done before scapegoat another group of people, said Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont who is running an insurgent bid for the Democratic nomination.
http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/thousands-line-up-in-lincoln-for-bernie-sanders-who-says/article_c7ebaf26-e17b-11e5-9b34-771a4b85f6af.html#.VtimpWqc7t4.twitter
he is not the first RW demagogue to take advantage of people's economic insecurity nor will he be the last.