Trump needs to win 7 out of 10 white males.

[sufrommich]

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will be testing the limits of a strategy that has long haunted the Republican Party. Since the civil rights era, the Republicans have relied heavily upon white male voters in order to overcome a disadvantage among minorities and some subsets of women. Mathematically, that was an easier strategy a half-century ago, when white men dominated the electorate. But as the GOP failed to broaden its coalition and the demographics of America have shifted dramatically, an ever-greater percentage of white men has been required to secure a GOP victory.


And if, as it appears, Trump’s opponent in the general election is Hillary Clinton, his lane becomes even narrower. If things continue the way they’ve been going, just how much of the non-Hispanic white-guy vote would he need to win?
The math suggests Trump would need a whopping 70% of white men to vote for him. That’s more than Republicans have ever won before – more than the GOP won in the landslide victories of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and far more than they won even during the racially polarized elections of Barack Obama.




Of course, the argument often made by Trump’s followers is that he will win in November because he will bring so many disengaged Americans to the polls. But they’re talking about disengaged white voters, mostly mostly men— and unfortunately for him, the turnout rate for white men is already relatively high.

He can, and presumably will, try broadening his appeal by pivoting. When Trump clinches the GOP nod, he may attempt what Mitt Romney aide Eric Fehrnstrom once called the “Etch-A-Sketch” campaign relaunch—to restyle himself as a more palatable general election candidate. But given his commitment to a wall on the Mexican border and a ban on Muslim immigration, and given his flirtations with racism and fascism, he’s likely done too much damage to salvage much crossover appeal.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/donald-trump-needs-7-of-10-white-guys-213699#ixzz4223wNIsJ

[brush]

1. I don't thingk 70% of white males will do it . . .

and of course it won't happen, and I doubt 70% of all whites, including women, with do it either as too many progressive whites would rather shoot themselves than vote for Trump.

The days are over when the repugs could rely on just white voters to win as the country is browning as we speak.

Already the majority of kids entering elementary school are people of color. I doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what that portends for the future.

800,000 Mexican-Americans turn 18, voting age, every year. And that's just the Mexican-Americans. Add in all the other young voters of color becoming eligible and Trump's and the repug's chance for winning the presidency goes down even more dramatically.

[oberliner]

2. This is BS

It assumes his numbers with white females will be lower than I think they will be.

Also, remember, there are only about ten states that will actually matter on Election Day.

It's really all about Ohio and Florida - the rest of it is irrelevant.

[sufrommich]

4. Trump is only polling at 33% with Republican women. He isn't going to get

anywhere near enough votes from women.

[oberliner]

5. That's spread out among several primary candidates

He gets the highest percentage of the bunch.

[sufrommich]

7. Even if he got a normal percentage of women who will vote for

a republican in the General,it won't make up the difference.His tepid response on Planned Perenthood will also lose him the women who vote for anti choice candidates,his insulting personal insults against women who have tested him have rubbed many women the wrong way. He's not going to bring women out to vote for him in the numbers he would need.

[oberliner]

11. I hope you are right

It's so hard to predict what will happen with him.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

6. Yeah, I know few republican women who despise him.

I'm thinking they won't bother to vote in the general election if he is the republican candidate.

[FLPanhandle]

3. Trump is un-electable in the General

All these people worried about him should chill.

Trump winning the GOP nomination would be an early Christmas for Democrats.

[Vogon_Glory]

8. How Many White Women Does Trump Need To Win

How many white women does Trump need to win the general election? I don't mean to be flip, but it's a worrisome question that needs to be asked.

I come from Texas, where lop-sided voting majorities have given the Republicans a choke-hold on Texas state government. In 2014, white women helped elect regressive Tepublican Gregg Anbott Governor and Tea-Bagger Dan Patrick Lieutenant Governor.

There are at least 4 reactionary Republican women legislators in the Texas state legislature.

I WANT a Democratic win, but it ain't going to be as easy as it looks to starry-eyed rookies.

[sufrommich]

10. He would need more white women than republicans

usually get.Most republican candidates could count on Right to Life (63% female) to organize their largely female voting group,Trump's tepid views toward Planned Parenthood means they will probably sit this one out.

[DCBob]

9. The math is very difficult for Trump especially if Hillary is the nominee.

It could very well be a massive landslide.