Statistician with near-perfect election formula says prepare yourself for President Trump

[KamaAina]

http://www.sfgate.com/elections/article/Statistician-with-near-perfect-election-formula-6856643.php

A Stony Brook University professor of political science named Helmut Norpoth, who developed an almost perfect statistical formula model that predicts who will become president, has declared that if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, he will almost certainly become President of the United States.

The system utilizes the performance of a candidate within their own political party along with "patterns in the electoral cycle" to predict its winner. According to the school's newspaper, the latter factor "studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office." That portion of the formula doesn't take into account who each party nominates or the condition of the country at the time....

The model, which has correctly identified and predicted the winner of every election but one since 1912 — the one miss was the 1960 winner John F. Kennedy — has surmised that if the ballot comes down to Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton and Trump in the upcoming November election, the latter has a 97 percent chance of entering the White House. If Bernie Sanders wins the democratic nomination, the odds of Trump winning leap up to 99 percent....

"The probability of that (outcome) is almost complete certainty, 97 percent," Norpoth said. "It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"

I'll take it to the bank, all right. The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank)!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027620179

[PatrickforO]

1. Nah. It ain't over til its over.

[Takket]

2. "developed an almost perfect statistical formula model that predicts who will become president"

Bullshit.

[CommonSenseDemocrat]

3. Overfitting

[onenote]

4. Hogwash.

First, he only predicts popular vote as far as I can tell, not electoral votes.

Second, his being "right" is sometimes a matter of opinion. For example, it appears that for 2008, his model predicted Obama would outpace McCain in the popular vote, but only by 50.1 to 49.9. In fact, of course, Obama got 52.9% and McCain 45.7% which was a greater deviation that the margin of error of 2.5 percent.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I know some folks do not want to hear this

but if trump wins it (rather when, I called it after NV), he will go all the way. And this is starting to tricle into the elite commentariat.

Here you go

http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency

[KamaAina]

6. I and many others will also go all the way. To Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027620179

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. I saw it, practice your french

[NutmegYankee]

8. Nova Scotia is English Speaking.

Cape Breton is a gorgeous place. I have been up there to hike and vacation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Canadian immigration laws give you a huge edge if you are bilingual

[NutmegYankee]

10. Oh, I have no interest in leaving.

I'll stay and fight.

[KamaAina]

17. Oui, madame.

Vraiment.

[KamaAina]

18. The irony is, many Anglophone Canadians do not speak French

and many Francophones, especially outside Montreal, do not speak English. I remember meeting two lovely sisters from Edmonton at a disability conference in Honolulu. One had a disability and the other did not. I asked if the one with the disability had had the opportunity to learn French. Turns out the other one hadn't bothered!

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. WOW

[stevenleser]

11. Trump will be tough to beat. But he has some big vulnerabilities too. For instance...

The general presupposition is that a Republican has to get 40% of the Latino vote to be competitive. Right now, Trump is polling at 16% against Hillary among Latinos for instance. http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-univision-news-national-survey-of-hispanic-voters/1970/

It's hard to imagine Trump winning with that kind of number if it holds. And considering the kinds of things he has said and the anger toward him in the Latino community, I am guessing it will hold close enough to that number to make it a big deal.

[struggle4progress]

12. Here's Norpoth on 2008:

... With either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama facing off against John McCain in November, the forecast is for a nail-biter, not a sure time-for-a-change vote ...

The outcome was:

Popular vote
69,498,516 Obama
59,948,323 McCain

Electoral vote
365 Obama
173 McCain

[Egnever]

14. Not so perfect after all

[spanone]

13. 'near' perfect....

[cemaphonic]

15. A post-hoc analytical model with a couple dozen data points is a step above Nostrodamus.

He can start crowing about it's "near perfection" once it predicts some elections that haven't happened yet.

That said, he does have a point about the trend for a party switch after 8 years, and with the anti-establishment mood on both sides of the electorate, I don't think that Trump will be quite the pushover that some people think.

[Solly Mack]

16. Well, that's a sickening thought.

I thought a little while back that Trump would have dropped out before now... but that was probably wishful thinking.

Sick country that it is even a possibility.

Still, it ain't over 'til it's over.

[MowCowWhoHow III]

20. Ruh roh

[AgadorSparticus]

21. I am not buying this. I think it is the other way.

Whoever gets the democratic mid will trounce Trump. He hasn't won over any non white group. Not one.