Nevada Post-Mortem: Trump Crushes It

[tgards79]

Is it all over, but for the endless shouting?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/gop-nevada-caucus-donald-trump-crushes.html

[BillZBubb]

1. Trump's in the driver's seat unless either cruz or rubio drops out soon.

That is unlikely. If so trump hits the repug convention with the most delegates but probably not enough to win outright. He'll have to make a deal to get delegates from elsewhere. My guess is he offers rubio the VP spot. If rube is in 3rd place, he'll take the offer. It will be trump/rubio.

[tgards79]

2. You don't think he can get enough delegates?

Where is he going to lose? Except (maybe) Texas. He is leading in Florida and Ohio. If Rubio can't beat him in Florida, then where?

[BillZBubb]

3. No, I don't.

A lot of repug delegates are given on a proportional basis. So, even when he wins, trump is only picking up 30-40%. Ohio and Florida are different. I think they are winner take all, so trump could pick up a little under 200 delegates if he wins them both. That would be Yuuuuge!

Still, I think trump winds up just a little short of the number needed.

[tgards79]

4. Threshholds

Many of the "proportional" states also have minimum 20% threshholds. As long as Kasich and Carson stay in, Cruz and/or Rubio could miss and Trump would get 2/3 of delegates.