O.k So I like Hillary and Bernie, I like even more.

[busterbrown]

How the hell is there not gonna be a tremendous turnout in November by, Black, Brown, LGBT, Women, and other minorities.. I mean Christ almighty, doesn’t this almost guarantee the Dems. a win?

[Cali_Democrat]

1. I wouldn't say it guarantees it

But I think the Dem nominee has about a 95% chance of winning in November considering Scalia's death, the Demographic changes and states that have voted blue the last 6 presidential elections.

[mgmaggiemg]

2. yeah no worries in the general

i think the "birthing process" to get there makes people anxious....but like shakespeare romantic comedy "it all works out in the end"....it's just the drama on the way there...

[fun n serious]

3. I will vote blue no matter who

Yes. I think we can ALMOST with certainty guarantee a Democrat win. I would like to See Hillary win but will vote for Bernie should he be the nominee.

[rufus dog]

4. I have a $100 bet with Texas pubbie friend on the outcome

Today I offered to double the bet.

You can never, ever, ever, ever, overestimate the stupidity of Repubs, they can always be counted on to do the wrong thing.

[Kalidurga]

5. It's hard to say how this will effect turnout.

I think it depends on what Republican leadership does now in terms of what there turnout will be. If they are seen as blocking an appointment for no good reason and being ineffectual then it's not going to be good for them. BOTH, if they just approve of someone that the rank and file hates it might not be good for them either. I am just glad I am not in the Republican leadership.

[Wounded Bear]

6. They've kind of screwed themselves...

I've already heard fatalistic comments from RWers about how "McConnell gave Obama everything he wanted, so they'll probably vote his nominee in." This about the most obstructionist, filibuster-happy Congress in history.

Kind of damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[Kalidurga]

7. Yep I think they painted themselves in a corner

If they go with the extremists in the party they will turn off moderates. If they go with moderates they will lost the extremists. Why they are afraid of that part of the party I don't know, but they are. And they do need them to win since it's 10-25% of their party.

[Wounded Bear]

8. It's kind of strange....

but I'm kind of old, so I go back a while. I'd kind of like to get back to a place/time where I could actually consider a Republican candidate for something. As it is, I can't vote for anyone with an R behind their name. I get called a partisan hack by some RWer on-line friends, but there it is. Talk about a party leaving me behind, they certainly did.

My choices this cycle are pretty much Bernie, Hillary, none of the above for pres, and all of the liberal-est D's I can find for the rest.

[Kalidurga]

9. Up until 2009 I was okay with having Republican friends

But, now as soon as someone says they are Republican I tend to think they are at least a little nuts. I know it's not fair it's probably mostly the leadership. But, the leadership in my opinion has gone full on racist and if you can stand behind that well I am not going to stand beside you in friendship. Most my family are POC, most my neighborhood is as well, most my friends are as well, and a lot of my family of origin is as well and most my daughters friends and family as well. So this is my community and anyone that does or says anything against them is going to incur my wrath. It doesn't end well for them is all I can tell you on that note.

[DFW]

10. So far, yes

So far, this looks like a repeat of 2008 in that the Republicans have such a weak bench (not to mention their weak platform) that the Democratic primaries are so hard-fought for the very reason that the Democratic nominee is the next president. The Democratic primaries ARE the race for the White House. Of course, things can always change, and any candidate can blow it, even at the last second. Just ask Claire McCaskill, who was positive she was looking at retirement on January 1, 2013 (I heard this from one Claire McCaskill, by the way, NOT speculating here)--until her opponent invented "legitimate rape" on the air.

That having been said, we're not likely to be the only ones who have figured this out. Karl Rove, Roger Ailes, Sheldon Adelson, David Koch and Charles Koch know it too. We have votes. They have voter suppression. It is not clear which will win out. In 2004, I was asked by hundreds of people here in Europe what the outcome of the 2004 election would be. My prediction then was that Kerry would win the election, and that Bush would remain in office. Thanks to Kenneth Blackwell and Diebold, that was indeed the outcome. Anyone who thinks that couldn't happen again is living in a fool's paradise.

Since 2000, planes with important Democratic candidates aboard have crashed. It would probably cost far less than a billion dollars to make that happen again, too. Repealing Citizens United would relegate Adelson and the Kochs back to the obscurity from whence they came before 2010. I'm sure they are willing to put up a billion to make sure that doesn't happen.