What happens if no republican gets more than about 30%

[lovemydog]

of the popular vote?

What would cause us to see a crazy republican convention in which no one is the clear winner going into it?

What would trigger such events?

Since a bunch of republicans seem to be getting around 10%, wouldn't there be some pressure for a few of them to drop out and coalesce around someone who might beat Trump?

Just wondering if anyone can give some specifics that help us understand it better.

[valerief]

1. Why did Ryan accept to be speaker? Because the GOP said they'd overload the

primary which would split out the votes and justify a brokered convention coronating Ryan.

[lovemydog]

5. Interesting.

Nothing would surprise me.

[JVS]

2. The primaries eventually become winner take all.

I'd need a list of which ones operate under which rules to speculate further.

[Blueguyinthesky]

3. As people drop out this won't keep happening forever

I wonder if the GOP establishment will try uniting everybody else's delegates behind whoever they think can beat Trump.

[lovemydog]

6. That's what I've been wondering too.

Though if they tried that I think it would massively piss off their base.

[mercuryblues]

4. you are guessing

that if some drop out that they would not vote for Trump. So far only those polling at 2% or so have dropped out. Not a high enough percentage to be noticeable in the election results.

I am starting to entertain the idea the PTB may want a brokered convention so they can push Trump out for Jeb!

[lovemydog]

7. Not sure.

I've been wondering that too. Though I think if they tried that they'd have a revolt from the base.

Politics is crazy.

[Blasphemer]

8. And Trump would absolutely initiate a 3rd party run under that scenario

If he loses "fair and square," he'd take his ball and go home. But, if they broker him out, he'd run 3rd party if only to spite the G.O.P. He'd get at least 30% of the GOP vote and votes from people who don't ordinarily vote, and Dems would win handily.

[pampango]

9. By the time of their convention it may be too late for Trump to get on many state ballots.

Most states have either a 'sore-loser' law or simultaneous registration for candidates for the primary and general election making it difficult or impossible for a candidate to run in a party primary and then file to run as an independent or third-party candidate. Only Connecticut, Iowa, New York and Vermont don't have such laws.

If he dropped out of the GOP race now, he would have time to get on practically every state ballot as a third-party candidate. The GOP establishment probably does not want to piss Trump off too much until it is too late for him to do that. Of course, by delaying 'pissing him off' they run the risk of him winning primaries and becoming their nominee. And Trump's base will be mighty mad if the party doesn't treat him 'fair and square' no matter when it happens. Must be hell to be in the GOP establishment.

... a sore-loser law is a law which states that the loser in a primary election can not then run as an independent in the general election. In most states, these laws do not apply to presidential candidates. Many states accomplish the same requirement by having simultaneous registration dates for the primary and the general election; in fact only the states of Connecticut, Iowa, New York and Vermont don't have either a sore-loser law or simultaneous registration deadlines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore-loser_law

[Blasphemer]

10. Ahh... very interesting

Didn't know about these laws. Yes, the GOP is definitely between a rock and a hard place, which is pretty much where they deserve to be!

[DFW]

11. Either Jeb or Kasich

I think they are scared they could come in with under 40% of the popular vote if they nominate Cruz or Rubio. Though Jeb and Kasich would both be horrible (think SCOTUS nominations), compared to Cruz or Rubio, they are downright palatable to the RNC, which is a sorry statement in itself.

One way or the other, at some point Trump will pick up his marbles and go home. Whether as the Republican nominee or as a third party, Trump in the race in November spells disaster for Republican chances for the White House. The RNC will do what they can to prevent it. If they can't, it will mean they have completely lost control over their party. That isn't necessarily good news for us, as it could mean a new far right party financed to the gills by Adelson, Kochs and others who will find someone palatable to both them and the ignorant masses of Foxsuckers whose opinions they control. They'll come up with someone with Rubio's looks and Kasich's "experience," an obedient actor in the Reagan mold with Walker Merryman's voice, maybe, and groom him to be "Ronnie 2.0"