Your top three GOP predictions tonight ? update: RESULTS

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Last edited Wed Feb 10, 2016, 10:16 AM - Edit history (7)

Oops....no one got the top three right (who posted here). Some close, but no cigar.

StevieM accurately predicted Kasich with 16% Carly 4 and Carson 2

Oberliner came remarkably well predicting the order too.

Shouldn't have edited my first guess.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mine

Trump
Kasich
Cruz


On edit, cuz I can

Trump
Kasich
Christie


Also, Hillary will get within 6. I remember 2008 - when she defied the polls and beat Obama out.

I AM GOING TO LOSE SO MUCH MONEY ON THIS ONE - BERNIE WILL WIN BY A LANDSLIDE

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. mine?

Trump
Christie
Kasich

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Interesting. Are you feeling support for Christie - or was that

just because he called out Robio?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

31. It wasn't that he called the rube out, it was

on what topic that dolt was called out. Hollow, shallow, insubstantial, lightweight, inexperienced, robotic.

Actually, I think Christie will do OK because he is so close geographically. But, I must admit, with his girth, Christie is closer to every state than any other candidate.

Cruz is toast. Rubio fading. Jeb!? He is in a sleep walking contest with Carson, although he may not recognize it. the only time Jeb! has shown anything was long after most pundits already wrote him off.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

40. they just interviewed some people that couldn't decide and went

with Christie - you may be right ! Had to laugh tho - said because he was "trustworthy"

[ChairmanAgnostic]

48. he does have a . . . hmm . . . greater air of gravity about him.

[Agschmid]

2. Trump, Kasich, Bush

[Lil Missy]

3. Trump, jeb will go up, cruz and rubio will tank. n/t

[oberliner]

4. Trump underperforms (but wins)

Kasich does surprisingly well (strong second).

Big muddle for third place (Bush, Cruz, Rubio).

Christie comes in 6th and drops out. (endorses Kasich)

Ben comes in 7th and drops out.

Carly comes in 8th and drops out.

[CTyankee]

16. I agree with you except for a suspicion that bush does better than Kasich...

bu I just don't know how Kasich gets traction...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. Please no. Is I have to see Bush acting like he's got momentum

think I will puke.

[randome]

34. But won't it be fun to watch him crash and burn after feeling he's got a chance?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Randome - you just gave me an idea. Fine Champage - going to LS now ! nt

[yeoman6987]

52. Ben won't drop out going into South Carolina where he has 10 percent right now.

I know that is not a lot but his plan is to keep Ted from winning South Carolina as pay back.

[oberliner]

54. Ted really screwed that up

Cruz would've been the logical candidate to get Carson's voters.

[yeoman6987]

56. Yep. That's what happens when you don't have integrity.

[morningfog]

5. Kasich, Trump, Cruz

Carson, Fiorina drop out.

Trump has no ground game. No voter rolls, no calls, nothing. You can't win on celebrity alone. Right? Please tell me I'm right.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. So, Kasich has a ground game?

[morningfog]

17. He has done much more than Trump. He actually has voter rolls and volunteers.

He's focused his time there.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. That is what is such a mystery to me about Trump

In the typical business world he is in - management wants
all the data and all the information they can get. So it seems
this should transcend to the political world. But, heard
his political volunteers were asking for it and were told not to
worry

Listened to two interviews of Trump yesterday and today
and think I figured some of it out. He is successful because of
his ability to persuade and he relies on this solely. He was
told the Mexican Prez said no way, not paying for wall. Trump
brushed it off with "oh, he will". Like he has already analyzed
what he could hold against him in the game of persuasion

As for the voter rolls, He looks at the polls and says - we will
win - so why bother with the GOTV - all I care about is the
win. Not sure why he wouldn't care enough to have that
win be as decisive as possible though

[Laura PourMeADrink]

42. Ah...just heard some former governor say Kasich's ground game

best he'd seen in 40 years. Oh god, gonna have to hear that country bumpkin nerdy talker more.

[KamaAina]

47. "Trump has no ground game"

Of course not. He doesn't even know what that is!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

58. I'm not a politician and this is my first time ! I heard him

this morning. Evidently he's a pragmatist. Knows he will
win----just feels it. so why bother with GOTV

[demosocialist]

6. Kasich, Trump, Cruz

I think the polls for trump are overblown... at least I hope

[morningfog]

7. Jinx.

[demosocialist]

10. Must mean we will be right nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. On MSNBC, someone just said that they talked to a number

of people last night who were torn between Trump and Kasich and made a final decision on Kasich.

Think his homey, nerdy, folksy style is probably refreshing to the rest who preach doom and gloom. Trump doesn't preach doom and gloom as much - but sure his crudeness is off-putting to the mild-mannered class.

[demosocialist]

32. I dont think they like doom and gloom

NH seems to take this really seriously and they get to actually see and hear the candidates.

How I think it will go down.

Record voter turnout overall. Sanders will pull a lot of young ppl and out of those young voters Kasich will get a bump (from the few Republicans). I think Kasich has that same aura for republicans that McCain had in 2000, which worked well in NH. On top of that I think Trump will get just as many ppl out that love him and hate him, the ones that hate him will go to Kasich (because in NH he is the biggest contrast to Trump.

The reason I have Cruz in 3rd is even though there are not that many religious voters in NH they are a solid block and with the rest of the Republicans spreading their vote over Bush, Christy and Rubio, I think that block will pull Cruz ahead.

Of course all up in the air until tonight

looking good for Sanders, so far as I can see

[Laura PourMeADrink]

46. Anyway you look at it - for one of the few times in all the years

I have watched politics - the Republicans are doing our dirty work for us. Most every single one has been damaged by their own except maybe Kasich. So different than the years of boring, say no bad about each other

[Funtatlaguy]

8. I'll go one better and do numbers

Trump 25
Kasich 20
Bush 20
Cruz. 15
Rubio. 10
Christie. 5
Fiorina. 3
Carson. 2

Bernie. 55
Hillary. 45

[longship]

11. Bold! But sounds reasonable.

Which may be an argument against it in this looney toon political year (with respect to the incredible GOP clown car).

The Dem prediction is an easy one.

My best to you.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. More I think about it - you are probably right about Bush being up there

Only because he's probably got the most money to GOTV

[StevieM]

25. Interesting predictions. I gave my list below (post #23), and it was somewhat similar.

I also had Christie at 5 percent. He really isn't a competitive part of the establishment lane anymore, not since he castigated that young girl, asking if he should get a mop. But his debate performance may have boosted him a point, so I gave him 6 percent.

[Johonny]

18. Prediction one Rubio reminds us that Obama doesn't know what he's doing, but knows exactly what he's

doing

2) Ted Cruz thanks God for making him such a horrible human being.

3) Donald Trump calls someone an idiot before realizing he's looking in a mirror.


I'll go wild... Trump/ Christie / Cruz is the finish. I feel Christie got some mojo from the debate, but not sure it translates into enough votes, but I can't imagine a human being on this planet voting for Ted Cruz.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. Guess Cruz appeals to the churchy types - not sure

how may in NH. But, did see Kasich on MoJoe this morning and
he said something when asked about how he is making it through
the hectic campaign. And he said, "I told God you got me to
the mountain top, now please walk beside me coming down." Or
something close to that - which I thought was kind of churchy talk.

[randome]

22. Prediction #1: Trump will declare himself the victor.

Prediction #2: Cruz will declare himself the victor.
Prediction #3: Rubio will declare himself the victor. Rubio will declare himself the victor.
Prediction #4: Carson will return to Florida for a change of clothing.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]

[StevieM]

23. OK, here is my prediction:

Trump 28
Bush 22
Kasich 16
Cruz 11
Rubio 10
Christie 6
Fiorina 4
Carson 2
Other 1 (Rand Paul will get more votes than Jim Gilmore)

For the Democrats:

Sanders 55
Clinton 43
Other 2

[oberliner]

24. Wow - you think Bush really makes it that close?

That would be huge for him.

[StevieM]

27. Maybe it is Trump 30, Bush 20. But I do think he will take second place.

In the end, I think Bush will do well enough to spin a comeback story. If he does then he can go to South Carolina and decisively defeat Ted Cruz for second place and spin that as a win. Finally, he can get a win in Nevada, at which point it will essentially be a two person race.

I still think that Bush may well be the nominee.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. Now Steve, that's depressing:) Jeb high on my hate list. Isn't Jeb

too establishment/librul to do well in SC ?? I see Cruz resurging there.

[StevieM]

36. I think Cruz looked bad coming out of Iowa

The "voter violation" mailers looked and sounded awful. So did the reports he put out about Carson dropping out of the race. Finally, he lied about CNN being the ones who reported the story.

If Bush comes out of New Hampshire looking strong then I think Cruz and Rubio will quickly decline in the polls. And Kasich has nowhere to go after New Hampshire.

All the GOP candidates are horrible. I think Cruz and Carson are the most dangerous of the bunch, and that's really saying something.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. true.. hard for me to separate - between "obnoxious and makes

me want to puke" and "dangerous"

Plus you have to factor in that we could still have Republican house and Senate. Most important thing - Don't let them get over 60 in the Senate for sure.

[Nye Bevan]

26. 1-Kasich 2-Trump 3-Christie 4-Bush 5-Cruz

[mikehiggins]

28. Trump. None of the others matter. eom

[valerief]

29. 1) Someone sucky, 2) Someone else sucky, and 3) Another sucky candidate. nt

[artyteacher]

30. LOL. yeah that. eom

[TBF]

35. Dunno about Cruz - even here in Houston

no one seems to like him. They are pissed that Bush is tanking (this town loves his dad and ignores W). No clue which way they will go now, Kasich may be the winner when it all shakes out. I do think you're correct that it will go 1. Trump, 2. Kasich

[flamingdem]

37. Trumpster, Kasich, Christie nt

[TeamPooka]

38. Douchebag, idiot, robot. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. LOL. Trump=douchebag, Robio=robot? who's Idiot? or are you just

playing.

[TeamPooka]

53. they're all the same. Pick a tag any tag.

[Matrosov]

39. Bigot, idiot, creepy guy n/t

[Donald Ian Rankin]

43. Trump, Rubio, Kasich. N.T.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

49. Dumber, dumb, dumbest.

Also, I hope Hillary gets beat bad enough to see the handwriting on the wall and drop out.

[StevieM]

59. Seriously? That sounds fair to you? We pick the nominee after only two states have voted?

And if Bernie is inevitable then doesn't it help if she stays in so he can keep racking up impressive wins?

And what if Hillary does the wrong thing and stays in the race? And then what if she crushes him in South Carolina? Will it then mean that Bernie should drop out?

BTW...weren't some Sanders supporters predicting a third place finish for Hillary in Iowa?

[libodem]

50. Let this dog decide

[matt819]

51. Trump, Christie, Cruz (nt)

[Bucky]

55. I think Rubio's gonna surprise us and make the top 3

Republicans change pretty slowly. Trump, Kasich, Rubio, if you ax me

[Laura PourMeADrink]

57. Holy crap...probably all wrong. first precinct - Trump way up, then

Cruz. then Bush (gag)

[StevieM]

60. Bumping so we can check our predictions. I did pretty well, except for my belief that Jeb Bush

would surprise with a showing in the low 20s. But I called Kasich at 16, Cruz at 11, Rubio at 10, Fiorina at 4 and Carson at 2.

That's pretty good.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027595701#post23

[Laura PourMeADrink]

61. Great ! will post tomorrow to make sure Jeb doesn't pull it out

[StevieM]

62. I don't think Bush will get into third place, but I think he is still rising.

Nikki Hailey may endorse him. And I still feel like Ted Cruz is on the decline. I think Bush is going to try for second place, hoping he can spin it into a win.

And we'll see what happens in Nevada. Rubio is also counting on that state for a comeback. But I think he is finished. He had his Dan Quayle moment.

I edited my previous post to correct my misplace homonym. I had written "accept" instead of "except." I hate when I do that. I guess it's been a long day, LOL.

[oberliner]

63. I did really well

Except for the Trump underperforming part.

Kasich does surprisingly well (strong second).

Big muddle for third place (Bush, Cruz, Rubio).

Christie comes in 6th and drops out. (endorses Kasich)

Ben comes in 7th and drops out.

Carly comes in 8th and drops out.

Not bad, right?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

64. Yes, you did ! Can't wait to see is you are right about

Christie endorsement. Anyone but Bush, I hope.