Ron Paul had big rallies too

[edhopper]

but his voters didn't show up at the voting booth.

So do Trump supporters vote?

[thereismore]

1. We shall see. nt

[edhopper]

2. exactly

the polls and rallies don't indicate what will happen. Can't say.

[el_bryanto]

3. Well if he wins the nomination he'll have Republican voters - or at least most of them

We'll see - it seems like it's between him and Cruz right now and I think Trump would actually do less damage (by virtue of pissing everybody off with his negotiating tactics).

Bryant

[Warren Stupidity]

4. I don't think he did have a lot of "big rallies" but he had a lot of enthusiastic stoners who

thought he was going to legalize pot who convinced themselves the rest of the rightwing crapola didn't matter. But like they don't vote much. Trump's demographic is "suburban white male". They vote.

[edhopper]

5. they didn't in Iowa

at least not enough of them.
To win you also need an organization. Phone banks to call people and urge them to vote. People to drive supporters to the polls.
Trump doesn't seem to have any of that.

He may win in NH tomorrow, but it is far from certain.

Of course Rubio crashing helps him.

[Warren Stupidity]

6. Caucuses are a whole different animal.

Also in Iowa the right has a huge evangelical faction and I don't think Trump plays well with them at all and they are very organized w.r.t. voting. In NH you basically just have to show up and vote, and even his idiots can manage that. But indeed he is a novice and doesn't have a seasoned campaign team running his show.

[edhopper]

9. agreed

why the polls are not a good measure.He may win NH, but not a surprise if he doesn't.

[Johonny]

7. As predicted there are few new Trump voters. As candidates drop out he isn't gaining support

eventually as more and more people leave the race someone will permanently pass Trump. The only question is... can Trump keep Rubio, Carson, Cruz all in the race splitting the 60+% and win with numbers in the 30s each state? One thing we know for sure is that the GOP winner is likely going to be only popular with 20-30 percent of GOP voters. There is a huge void to regain lost support.

[edhopper]

8. I agree

with this.

The weakness of the GOP field helps him.