A Small Asteroid Will Definitely Miss Earth on March 5. But by How Much?

[HuckleB]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/02/08/small_asteroid_2013_tx68_will_swing_by_earth_on_march_5_2016.html

"In the “don’t panic” category, the small(ish) asteroid 2013 TX68 will definitely miss the Earth when it swings by our fair world on March 5.

The orbital mechanics on this are pretty clear; it certainly won’t hit us. The thing is, it’s not clear by how much it’ll miss us, and the range is a bit uncertain: It’ll pass somewhere between 17,000 to 14 million kilometers from Earth.

...

That’s the problem; with only three days of observations of TX68 back in 2013, it’s impossible to predict exactly where it will be when it passes the Earth in March. What you get is a fuzzy prediction that puts it near the Earth, with a range of likely distances based on that. The closest it can get is 17,000 kilometers, but it could pass us 14 million kilometers away.

From a position of “Ohmygod is this thing gonna hit us?” we’re pretty safe. From an astronomer’s position of “Hey I want to observe this thing for myself and help nail down its orbit” it’s frustrating. That uncertainty means we’re not even really sure where it’ll be in the sky at a given time. Our best bet is to use wide-field telescopes, scan the most likely areas it’ll appear, and hope for the best.

..."

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Interesting stuff, or so I think.

[KansDem]

1. "What if...?"

"In the “don’t panic” category, the small(ish) asteroid 2013 TX68 will definitely miss the Earth when it swings by our fair world on March 5.

What if it were to strike Earth? What would we do?

Would science come to the fore with answers and solutions, or would scientists be demonized as hoax perpetrators, like climate change is now. Even with scientific evidence, the naysayers would discount or ignore the suggestions of scientists.

Would Congress do anything? Or would the Republicans sit on their collective asses and do nothing?

Would there be a push to privatize the rescue of Earth?

Would evangelicals and rapture-ready Christians thwart any plan to destroy the asteroid, claiming it would be contrary to God's will?

Would conservatives claim there isn't enough money in the budget to save the Earth unless Social Security and Medicare are eliminated?

Would the OnePercenters have a high-tech Noah's Ark ready to take off to a safe distance and wait for the Earth to be hit. Then come back and search out on a piece of Earth that still might be inhabitable for them to pick up where they left off?

What if...?

[hobbit709]

2. It's not Dinosaur Killer size but plenty big enough to cause major disruptions.

there's not a thing we can do about either.

[HuckleB]

3. Some have mentioned how embarrassing it would be to be destroyed by a meteor, for example.

We have the technology to "deflect" them, if needed, but we don't spent the money to develop a program.

[panader0]

4. "Miss Earth"--that's, like, bigger than Miss America right?

[gratuitous]

5. Will it come close enough to muss Trump's hair?

There. I have covered this story to the full extent the popular media will care about it.

[HuckleB]

6. Oh, popular media sometimes jumps on such stories, but probably not in an election year.

[Waldorf]

7. Notify Bruce Willis. He might be called up to kill another asteroid.

Kidding aside, space interests me also.

[HuckleB]

13. Well, it's good we have someone with experience!

Celluloid or not!

[NaturalHigh]

8. Interesting stuff, yes.

[MrScorpio]

9. It's going to miss us by that much...

[HuckleB]

12. +1,000,000 ... 000

[hfojvt]

10. if your margin of error is that large

How can you be so sure about the last 17,000 kilometers? Are they factoring in earth's gravitational pull? What if it hits the moon instead?

March 5th, of course, is the date of the Kansas caucus, which I will not be attending.

I expect the race will be over by super Tuesday, at least on our side. There's nobody I want to support anyway, and somebody went and scheduled the Kiwanis mid year convention on the same date.

[HuckleB]

11. Well, I don't get a say this year, as most years, either.

Oregon doesn't seem interested in national primaries, for some reason. I don't really mind, I guess. Or I'm used to it. Or something.

I do suspect the scientists have taken into account the necessary variables, which is probably part of what makes the variation so large.