Trumps support in IA is not very deep and he could finish 2nd or even 3rd

[Renew Deal]

The numbers in the Seltzer poll tell some stories.

If you combine first and second choice, Cruz is first, and Trump is tied with Rubio for third

First choice - Second Choice
Trump 28+7=35
Cruz 23+17=40
Rubio 15+20=35

Now I'm sure that some of these second and thirds come from Trump and Cruz, so the numbers aren't completely clear.

But caucusers are more comfortable with Cruz as president and would pick Cruz over Trump in a two way race.

More or less comfortable as president
Cruz 49-28
Trump 37-45

Two person race between Trump and Cruz
35 Trump
53 Cruz

From what I've read, Cruz has a strong ground game. So Cruz's people are better suited to get people out and organize them properly. I've also heard that the Cruz people think they have more built in support. So if they show up, it could be their night in the end.

Also, I think the Carson people are more likely to move to Cruz than Trump. They add up to 10% so they probably won't be viable in most cases.

My point is, don't be surprised if Cruz pulls it out, and possibly runs away with it in the end.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

[saltpoint]

1. It would be hunky dory with me if

Trump didn't finish first in Iowa, except that there's nobody else to root for.

The Selzer poll had Jeb! at 2 percent. Doesn't sound like much of a groundswell on behalf of the former Florida Governor. Circling the drain in Des Moines.

And Carly Fiorna isn't faring much better. She's had several months to whip up some new demon sheep ads and she's just flat-out dropped the ball. Poll numbers in the low single digits. Several months without demon sheep ads. A coincidence? I think not.

[Volaris]

2. Trump doesn't have to win Iowa.

The eventual GOP nominee seems to be historically more correctly predicted by who will take the prize coming out of NH and into SC, and my sense of it is that trump will do well in NH (sadly)
Trump doesn't need to win Iowa for himself, he just has to be able to make the claim that he denied anyone else a 10point, DECISIVE win. I think he can do that.

God help us lol.

[Renew Deal]

4. I wonder what happens in the freak scenario where he finishes third

[Volaris]

9. He stays in till right before the convention

Blames fox and the RNC for not backing him strongly enough, and (if it looks like he can pull it off) trades his much-needed endorsement for a VP nomination.

For Cruz to not be on the ticket at this point, somebody will have to crush the SHIT out of him, and I don't think Rubio is mean enough to handle it.
But it's going to be a very bloody battle regardless,and Cruz will NEED Establishment backing for him to have even the slimmest of chances in the General. The only way he gets it is to put Trump or Bush on the ticket, and Bush won't do it. Trump will, if for no other reason than he's bored.

[AZ Progressive]

3. IA and NH will show which campaigns have meat and which are just air

Everything being talked right now is just moot compared to what the IA and NH results will tell us about each of the campaigns.

[mr_liberal]

5. I agree, but this poll doesnt factor in the debate entirely

It looks to me like it only includes the debate for one of the four days that make up the poll.

I think thats definitely bad news for Trump since he chickened out, but it also could hurt Cruz a little as well. It probably helps Rubio the most.

I still think Cruz will win, but I predict Rubio will surge into second (that will be the big story) and Trump will drop to third.

Rubio is going to be the nominee imo.

[Renew Deal]

7. Republican caucusgoers are net-negative about him skipping the debate

Last edited Sun Jan 31, 2016, 02:44 PM - Edit history (1)

But it's not clear that he lost any votes from it.

Approve or Disapprove of Trump skipping debate
24 Approve
29 Disapprove
46 Don't care

[Zynx]

23. When only 53% voiced an opinion, that's a push. It doesn't mean much.

[saltpoint]

6. Dark future vision of a Trump victory

in the general election, with Trump at his Inaugural, swearing not on a Bible but on his book, Art of the Deal...

It would have been nice if Trump's campaign had imploded sometime last summer. His staying power is concerning. The media share some of the blame, though not all.

If Trump finishes first in Iowa, he will win several more primaries and become an obnoxious presence in Cleveland, and possibly the GOP nominee. The Republican convention will be unwatchable and grotesque. I mean even more than it usually is.

If Cruz wins Iowa, the Republican Party has an even bigger crisis on its hands. Cruz is insane and mean-spirited, with a dangerously high opinion of himself. Downballot GOP candidates are going to have a rough go of it if Ted Cruz tops the Republican ticket.

All fine and well for progressives, as we turn the Senate blue and pick up several house seats, governor races, and on down into county and city elections.

[Renew Deal]

8. It's probably better for us if Cruz wins IA and Trump wins NH

That will boost the crazies and suffocate most of the rest. It destroys the republican plan of sneaking Rubio in there.

[saltpoint]

10. Agree. Rubio seems to be faltering as it is

and any outcome that makes it even harder for him is better for us.

Something really wayward is afoot with Marco Rubio. I don't know what it is, but it's something. Some months from now we'll all read about it, but it likely won't be revealed during the primary season.

Kasich is picking up endorsements, but apart from a respectful showing in New Hampshire polling, he doesn't seem to be registering at all anyplace else. Fine with me.

[KingCharlemagne]

16. Kasich Cosponsored the same 1996 Welfare Reform bill that Bill

Clinton proudly signed and that Hillary has never repudiated.

1.1 million Americans are going to lose their food stamps starting next month, thanks to Kasich's and Clinton's collaboration.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/over-1-million-face-loss-of-food-aid-over-work-requirements/ar-BBoTPV8

.

[saltpoint]

19. This is a difficult time to be a progressive --

although I'm not sure I am able to make a case that there's ever a good time to be a progressive.

Too many public officials conspire against the citizens they are supposed to support and protect.

We've become a nation where armed seditionist assholes call out for snacks at the Malheur Refuge while food stamp allotments are cut back.

[KingCharlemagne]

20. We must hope for the best but plan for the worst. - nt

[saltpoint]

21. With you on that, KCharlemagne.

"While admitting to the worst of all possible worlds, we must behave as if we could be the best of all possible people."

-- Paul Horgan, Give Me Possession

[mr_liberal]

11. Whats amazing to me is how much the left loves Megyn Kelly now

when the truth is she is trying to help the Republican party knock out Trump (and Cruz) and make Rubio the nominee. People here don't know how to think strategically, theyre just emotional. Everybody here should want Trump or Cruz to win.

And know that Megyn Kelly is a Republican establishment hack thats just doing whats in the best interest of Republicans winning the election.

[saltpoint]

12. Trump and Kelly. I'm wondering if their

little dustup is manufactured, designed to bolster Trump's profile as a misogynist galoot and to confer star media celebrity onto a FOX "news" person.

Kelly works for a far right propaganda machine. We should have no truck with those people.

[mr_liberal]

14. Its not manufactured.

The Republican establishment (which includes Fox News and Kelly) thinks Trump will lose the GE.

[yeoman6987]

13. Cruz anywhere near the White House is the worst case sanario

What he did with calling out neighbors and letting other neighbors the grade on their voting practices is about as low as you can go. What will he do with access to all of our information?

[mr_liberal]

15. Cruz would lose in a landslide. He's too extreme and dislikable. nm

[ecstatic]

17. Exactly. NOBODY likes him and I hate to sound petty

but his outer appearance matches his inner character.

[world wide wally]

18. Must be some ugly Republicans in Iowa

[Zynx]

22. Republican voters don't reallocate. They don't have the same system the Dems do.

You get basically whatever you get when the people show up.

[oberliner]

24. There is no "being viable" issue in the Republican Iowa caucus

They don't do things the same way as the Democratic Iowa caucus.

They have a secret ballot, write the name of who they vote for on a piece of paper, and turn it in.

Then the votes are tallied up and that's the end of it.

[rusty fender]

25. Does he even have a GOTV machine?

Campaigns need a strong GOTV effort, like Obama had and which, I assume, Hillary and Sanders have. The other politicos know this basic campaign necessity, but I doubt that Trump acknowledges this. I think that he is relying on his "greatness" to get voters to the polls.

[chillfactor]

26. good...

I hope Trump is humiliated by the vote....I am so tired of seeing his face plastered everywhere.