David Roberts / Vox: Why I still believe Donald Trump will never be president

[Contrary1]

Probably the best summation of Trump regarding his "candidacy" that I've read.

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[font size=1]Enthusiastic, but insufficiently numerous.[/font size]

"...And here's the bedrock obstacle to Trump's success: there are simply not enough struggling, resentful, xenophobic white people in the US to constitute a national majority sufficient to win a presidential election.

So to win, Trump will have to reach out to moderates or independents or white-collar professionals or Latinos or college-educated women or ... some other demographic.

Endless dominance displays will not do that. He'll have to soften his approach, to show some respect and gravitas, to display some empathy, to demonstrate that he has a grasp of policy. Bush-style "compassionate conservatism" is the only kind capable of building a national majority any more.

Can Trump do that? Can he modulate his act? Can he appeal to different demographics? Well, he never has. And nothing in his history or behavior indicates that he's capable of it."

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/30/10873476/donald-trump-never-president

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Roberts gives 2 "extreme and unlikely circumstances" for Trump to win, but there's a 3rd

* I can think of two scenarios that would fit the bill. One, Trump faces Clinton and, late in the race, something happens to render Clinton unelectable. Two, Trump faces Sanders and Bloomberg jumps in, splitting the left vote and throwing the election to Trump.

Both seem highly unlikely to me, the first because Clinton is already the most intensely vetted figure in US politics, the second because Sanders is unlikely to win the primary.

3rd circumstance: another financial crash. These are always bad for incumbent parties in an election year. Even if it's because of global conditions, or the idiocy of the Republican congress in blocking regulation, it hurts the party who holds the presidency. And Trump would say he's an outsider with business skills who would have stopped it, and knows how to fix it. That's bullshit, but a lot of people might fall for it.

How unlikely a crash is, I can't tell. Given the financial news of the past few months, I don't think it's highly unlikely. And that's why I don't want Trump to win the Republican nomination, just in case something happens to make a change of party look like the main thing voters want.