JPMORGAN'S TOM LEE: This Was The Best May Jobs Report Since The Year 2000*

[FarCenter]

The title of his note: Seasonal Adjustment Wrong? May Payroll Gains (NSA) Best Since 2000

Why does he think that the number was wrong?
- First, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis the Establishment Survey (which is what's used for the official new jobs number) came in at +800K, one of the best numbers of the decade.
- The alternative household survey, also not seasonally adjusted came in at +732K jobs and was THE best since 1999.
- Finally he notes that the Citi Economic Surprise Index is following familiar seasonal patterns (tumbling in the spring and troughing in the summer) suggesting that season effects on data is dominant.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgans-tom-lee-this-was-the-best-may-jobs-report-since-the-year-2000-2012-6

There is another theory that the Lehman Brother's crisis and aftermath has now been taken into the seasonal adjustment formulas and that this one-time event is now throwing the seasonal adjustments off.

[bhikkhu]

1. Should be of interest to the "its all cooked numbers anyway" crowd

...though in this case the adjustments go against what we would like to see (good jobs numbers), instead artificially lowering what might have been a very good jobs report. Perhaps the formula for adjustments hasn't kept up with the doings of the actual jobs market.

732k actual jobs added is an epic number!

[bluestateguy]

2. I guess we'll know in a couple of months

We'll see what the revisions come out to.

[cthulu2016]

3. This is interesting

[okieinpain]

4. strangely, I'm not worried. n/t