Sam Wang: GOP Nomination Rules Tilt the Playing Field toward Donald Trump

[brooklynite]

American Prospect:

Pundits have assured us that the support for Donald Trump is so limited that he can’t possibly get the GOP presidential nomination. Last week in The New York Times, Ross Douthat argued that Trump has a ceiling around 30 percent of Republican voters and consequently will be defeated. To put this numerical claim to the test, I have created a detailed state-by-state simulation of the nomination rules. My conclusion may surprise you: Trump’s current level of support may be enough to deliver him the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in July.

Political science research suggests that the “party decides,”—that is, a party’s insiders ultimately have a decisive say in choosing the presidential ticket. In this year’s splintered Republican field, however, the power players have been largely silent, as if waiting for a “mainstream” leader to emerge. The frontrunner in polls, Trump, has never held office. In second place is Senator Ted Cruz, an outsider to his own party’s inner circles. Other conventional candidates (current and past officeholders) have combined support totaling about 25 percent. Have the insiders waited too long to consolidate behind one candidate?

The Republican Party’s nomination process has a simple, basic premise: If any candidate arrives at the July convention in Cleveland with a majority of the delegates, he (it’s going to be a he this year) can win the nomination on the first ballot. Delegates are assigned, however, through a byzantine process—one that does not require the eventual nominee to get support from a majority of voters.

This feature of the process provides Trump with an opportunity. In surveys of the first three states to vote—Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina—Trump’s support is now between 27 percent and 31 percent. How do these numbers translate into delegates?

[exboyfil]

1. 1/3 for Trump and a 1/3 for Cruz

I think Cruz will pick up much of Carson's supporters. 15-20% for Rubio. At one point I thought I could see common cause with Trump and Cruz, but that is off the table. The two are engaging in nuclear war now (along the lines of Rubio and Bush which made sense since only one could be on any ticket).