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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCilizza thinks Ted Cruz is the most likely to be the Republican nominee
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The candidate ranked No. 1 below is the most likely, as of now, to be the GOP nominee. And, for the record, I think its possible (if not probable) that we go into Cleveland for the Republican National Convention in July with no candidate with enough delegates to be the nominee.
1. Ted Cruz: The senator from Texas has been underestimated and underrated at every step of the primary process. No longer. Cruz is now solidly in first place in Iowa and, barring some sort of unforeseen collapse, will win the first-in-the-nation caucuses. He also should run well in South Carolina on Feb. 20 and in the SEC primary on March 1. Cruz, thanks to Donald Trump, is now being seen in some GOP circles as a conservative, non-disastrous alternative to the real estate mogul. And, unlike other conservative insurgents of the past, Cruz has the money both in his campaign committee and in a constellation of super PACs backing him to last for the duration of the race.
2. Marco Rubio: He has emerged as the establishment favorite, a designation made apparent by the number of major-dollar donors who jumped off the fence to be on his side over the past few months. The problem for Rubio is that he doesnt have an obvious win among the first few states to vote. Iowa looks to be a lost cause although maybe finishing first in the establishment primary might be enough? and New Hampshire is a place where everybody is looking up at Trump. South Carolina may be Rubios shot much of the senior command of his campaign is made up of Palmetto State operatives but thats not a given. The Nevada caucuses, where Rubio is a favorite, are Feb. 23; can he wait until the fourth vote to get a win?
3. Trump: The most likely scenario is that he finishes second behind Cruz in Iowa and wins New Hampshire. Where does that leave him? Who knows. Polling puts him ahead by double digits in South Carolina, but that states voters undoubtedly will be affected by what Iowa and New Hampshire do. And what does losing Iowa mean, if anything, for Trumps psyche or how he is viewed by supporters? Does he get angry, redouble his efforts and actually start spending his own money? Or does he throw up his hands and walk away? I think the former is the more likely option. Trump loves what he has done in this campaign and has little to no interest in giving it up anytime soon.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/whos-most-likely-to-be-the-2016-republican-nominee/2016/01/03/fd9d768e-b22f-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)But I think it is Trump, Rubio, Cruz. Cruz may win a few southern states and Iowa but they are proportional. He will never win New Jersey which has 51 delegates (winner takes all) the same as winning 4 proportional southern states. All the blue and purple states are winner takes all which is why Romney and not Santorum won the nomination.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)or arrive at the Convention in Cleveland with enough clout to do permanent damage to the Republican Party.
I just can't say enough about how little respect I have for this guy.
But he's out-organizing his GOP opponents and raising a shitload of money.
longship
(40,416 posts)That would be a new thing. Chris Cilizza has a brain untroubled by thought.
LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,590 posts)He will sue Iowa voters for being such losers.
"If you're Donald Trump, you sue -- that's what you do," paraphrasing the GEICO commercial.
MiniMe
(21,718 posts)He wasn't born in the US, and his parents weren't in Canada due to a military assignment. I still don't understand why he is eligible to run for President of the US. Yes, I am a birther on this point.