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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDonald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
Some common sense remarks from Nate Silver ...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
The recent polling surge by Donald Trump has launched a thousand stories about Trumps unprecedented campaign. But its nothing all that unusual: Similar surges occurred for almost every Republican candidate four years ago, including Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (twice).
Historys lesson isnt necessarily that Trumps candidacy will go bust tomorrow, however. There are plenty of examples of fringe or factional candidates who held on to their support for much longer than the month or two that Cain and Bachmann did. Sometimes, they did well enough in Iowa or New Hampshire, or even won them. Pat Buchanan claimed New Hampshire in 1996, for instance, while Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. Steve Forbes took 30 percent of the Iowa vote in 2000.
The lesson, rather, is that Trumps campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination.
Historys lesson isnt necessarily that Trumps candidacy will go bust tomorrow, however. There are plenty of examples of fringe or factional candidates who held on to their support for much longer than the month or two that Cain and Bachmann did. Sometimes, they did well enough in Iowa or New Hampshire, or even won them. Pat Buchanan claimed New Hampshire in 1996, for instance, while Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. Steve Forbes took 30 percent of the Iowa vote in 2000.
The lesson, rather, is that Trumps campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination.
Much more at the link.
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Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom (Original Post)
BlueMTexpat
Dec 2015
OP
House of Roberts
(5,182 posts)1. I'm all for him holding off failing until the general.
As long as he fails by then, it's all right with me.
Gothmog
(145,519 posts)2. This is a great article
I love Nate Silver and I hope that he is correct here
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)3. Keeping my fingers crossed
as well as working hard for my candidate.