Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

mylye2222

(2,992 posts)
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:53 PM Dec 2015

2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

From:

http://thespokedblog.com/2015/12/18/the-gun-is-smoking-2004-ohio-precinct-level-exit-poll-data/


There is significant controversy about whether the 2004 presidential election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly. According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted for the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won Ohio's pivotal vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus the presidency, to Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally debated by Congress in January 2005. The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf. NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering vote miscount. The Spoked Blog http://thespokedblog.com/2015/12/18/the-gun-is-smoking-2004-ohio-precinct-level-exit-poll-data/


Good to see mathematicians still dealing with this old, yet still important case in terms of history.
52 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount (Original Post) mylye2222 Dec 2015 OP
I fought the stolen election of 2004 and when the vast majority of elected Dems rolled over boomer55 Dec 2015 #1
That's exactly why Democrats havent demanded something be done about the process notadmblnd Dec 2015 #2
An investigation was made, but not by then- DNC running heads, that is for sure. mylye2222 Dec 2015 #6
I know I was totally confounded as to why Kerry just walked away and didn't fight it notadmblnd Dec 2015 #7
In fact Kerry and his aides worked on the case, but it was under the radar. mylye2222 Dec 2015 #9
What I remember involved Carville calling Kerry with "inside info" from Cheney's Mary Matalan that emulatorloo Dec 2015 #35
What you write is precisely the opposite of the true history. Why do you lie like this? L. Coyote Dec 2015 #18
I call bullshit. L. Coyote Dec 2015 #17
Yes! Was Republican SOS, sleazy Ken whats his name. Blackwell? emulatorloo Dec 2015 #36
thx, Coyote! librechik Dec 2015 #41
thx, Coyote! librechik Dec 2015 #42
I donated to the Green Party roody Dec 2015 #19
Yes, I did too. Was impressed with Green Party for doing that. emulatorloo Dec 2015 #37
I thought it was a ruse and distracted from the real fraud. Switched ballots recount the same. L. Coyote Dec 2015 #40
Same here actually. Xyzse Dec 2015 #51
the pdf from electionarchive does not work questionseverything Dec 2015 #3
I tried also....such a shame. mylye2222 Dec 2015 #4
Wasn't there one town where there were more votes for shrub than registered voters in that town? hobbit709 Dec 2015 #5
I was in the belly of the beast in 2004 in Ohio. Botany Dec 2015 #8
Agree. Media are even worse today, worshipping Nazi Trumpy. mylye2222 Dec 2015 #10
Same here pinboy3niner Dec 2015 #11
Cincinnati and Toledo partial results from Sec. of State Ken Blackwell's web site ..... Botany Dec 2015 #25
What do you mean, "they will not say shit." What is the Conyers Report then? L. Coyote Dec 2015 #43
Conyers did real good work and it was all but ignored by the DNC and the ODP Botany Dec 2015 #46
Didn't the Kansas thing turn out to be someone falling for that crazy idea about CVS? L. Coyote Dec 2015 #48
Dr. Clarkson is a serious person Botany Dec 2015 #50
I've found an archived copy of the Ohio exit poll pdf sonofspy777 Dec 2015 #12
And that is why we were told the exit polls were wrong, SusanCalvin Dec 2015 #33
I've been watching 2naSalit Dec 2015 #13
BINGO. ^^^^^^ SusanCalvin Dec 2015 #34
There is no more important issue than this Peace Patriot Dec 2015 #14
You are welcome mylye2222 Dec 2015 #15
How Kerry Votes Were Switched To Bush Votes L. Coyote Dec 2015 #16
thx, Coyote! librechik Dec 2015 #44
It's also worth looking at the facts surrounding the death of Bushie - Michael Connell Snarkoleptic Dec 2015 #20
Blackwell ... that's this Blackwell ... eppur_se_muova Dec 2015 #22
In '04 I marched to Blackwell's office with Rep. John Lewis in a voter suppression protest pinboy3niner Dec 2015 #24
Good on you! 2naSalit Dec 2015 #27
The kicker was that Mr. Lewis signed my placard. :) nt pinboy3niner Dec 2015 #30
That's cool! He's so cool! 2naSalit Dec 2015 #31
thx, pin! librechik Dec 2015 #45
A bit dated ... from 2011 ... but more details from Fitrakis: eppur_se_muova Dec 2015 #21
Then there were the 'experimental' voting machine software patches. Snarkoleptic Dec 2015 #23
And, I call bullshit again. L. Coyote Dec 2015 #47
Well, that's not the kind of response that wins you allies. nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2015 #49
Republicans and Greens are not allies. L. Coyote Dec 2015 #52
Duh!! malaise Dec 2015 #26
Me too. nt 2naSalit Dec 2015 #28
And then there was that crash malaise Dec 2015 #29
Here in Euope I was asked before the election what I predicted DFW Dec 2015 #32
It's all right out there. SusanCalvin Dec 2015 #38
In 2009 Dems could have protected our elections and voter rights, but were too busy ... Scuba Dec 2015 #39
 

boomer55

(592 posts)
1. I fought the stolen election of 2004 and when the vast majority of elected Dems rolled over
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:57 PM
Dec 2015

I knew the parties were in collusion. Democrats and Republicans serve the same masters and there are very few who are actually representing the people.

notadmblnd

(23,720 posts)
2. That's exactly why Democrats havent demanded something be done about the process
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:59 PM
Dec 2015

They want it available to utilize also.

 

mylye2222

(2,992 posts)
6. An investigation was made, but not by then- DNC running heads, that is for sure.
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:04 PM
Dec 2015

Then DNC chair McAuliffe prevented process savety regulations , at the time, , so that a Kerry loss meant, back then, a golden paved route to his close friend Hillary.

notadmblnd

(23,720 posts)
7. I know I was totally confounded as to why Kerry just walked away and didn't fight it
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:13 PM
Dec 2015

you answer provides some insight. Thanks

 

mylye2222

(2,992 posts)
9. In fact Kerry and his aides worked on the case, but it was under the radar.
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:15 PM
Dec 2015

Anyway, thanks for you answers.

emulatorloo

(44,124 posts)
35. What I remember involved Carville calling Kerry with "inside info" from Cheney's Mary Matalan that
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:35 PM
Dec 2015

there weren't enough provisional ballots in Ohio to change the outcome. Matalan's info Allegedly info from Ohio SOS.

On edit: don't blame Democrats for this, they didn't do it.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
18. What you write is precisely the opposite of the true history. Why do you lie like this?
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:28 PM
Dec 2015

From the Conyers Report:

"... it is imperative that we examine any and all factors that may have
led to voting irregularities and any failure of votes to be properly counted."



If you knew one iota of this history, it should be the Dems doing their own investigation in Congress because the Rs wouldn't touch it!!

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
17. I call bullshit.
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:26 PM
Dec 2015

If you wish to accuse Ohio Dems of colluding to elect Bush, you better have some evidence, not just one line of bullshit.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
40. I thought it was a ruse and distracted from the real fraud. Switched ballots recount the same.
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 11:16 AM
Dec 2015

A former Republican attorney ran that show, right, and the Republicans financed the Greens to suck off Kerry votes.

The recount sucked up a lot of activist cash and produced almost nothing, plus they distracted from the real fraud which took place before the ballots were counted. The exercise was not entirely futile because in Cuyahoga County they did document that the Bush ballots were presorted and arranged in groups, just as expected when they were moved from a precinct where they counted for Kerry to a precinct where that punch hole counted for Bush.

Xyzse

(8,217 posts)
51. Same here actually.
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 01:35 PM
Dec 2015

I sincerely wanted a Kerry presidency.
However, I only considered the Republican obstructionism and their subversion of the process.

Botany

(70,504 posts)
8. I was in the belly of the beast in 2004 in Ohio.
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:13 PM
Dec 2015

I saw and heard so much it made me crazy for a long time. However the media
knew about the theft of the election in 2004 and they still know about it today and
they are major part of the problem.

pinboy3niner

(53,339 posts)
11. Same here
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:21 PM
Dec 2015

I drove from CA to volunteer in battleground Ohio for the 2 months up to and just after the election. I worked full-time in Kerry's Franklin County Field Office in Columbus.

Botany

(70,504 posts)
25. Cincinnati and Toledo partial results from Sec. of State Ken Blackwell's web site .....
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:17 PM
Dec 2015

.... elction night 2004. Screen Captures.





"They" used a 3rd party candidate's vote total as a place to "store votes" until
after the final vote was in in order to have a stash of votes to flip to make sure
w bush "won."

The media, Kerry, the Democratic Party, and the republicans all know that Kerry
won Ohio but they will not say shit.



L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
43. What do you mean, "they will not say shit." What is the Conyers Report then?
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 11:22 AM
Dec 2015

Msn 'o man, we worked our asses off screaming like crazy! We did way more than say "shit" and you know it, you were there. FCS, we tried to stop certification of the Ohio electors.

Quit bashing the Democratic Party because the Republicans are soo very goood at cheating!

Botany

(70,504 posts)
46. Conyers did real good work and it was all but ignored by the DNC and the ODP
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 11:29 AM
Dec 2015

In 2012 I had sold proof of somebody or some organization of purging legit registerd
voters in Franklin County, OH and gave it to them (ODP people) and they didn't do shit.

After 2004 Harry Reid is on record as saying John Kerry was a "good boy" for not
fighting the outcome of Ohio's vote.

http://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article32685087.html the scam is still
going on right now.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
48. Didn't the Kansas thing turn out to be someone falling for that crazy idea about CVS?
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 12:09 PM
Dec 2015

Some guy thinks if you sort the vote by precinct size, it shows Republicans fix every election. Except, he fixes the study first by choosing the sort order that produces the desired result. Then he sells books about it to the unwitting.

Botany

(70,504 posts)
50. Dr. Clarkson is a serious person
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 01:34 PM
Dec 2015

Even republicans didn't like Brownback and somehow he was re-elected.

SusanCalvin

(6,592 posts)
33. And that is why we were told the exit polls were wrong,
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:32 PM
Dec 2015

And then exit polls went away altogether. You're not paranoid if people really are out to get you.

2naSalit

(86,612 posts)
13. I've been watching
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:45 PM
Dec 2015

the European elections (on Eouropean news feeds) this past month and one striking thing I have noticed is the unanimous use of PAPER BALLOTS and CLEAR BALLOT BOXES to deposit them in after the voter is done. We need to return to paper ballots and do as the majority of Europe is doing with regard to fair elections.

As for those investigating the 2000 and 2004 fraudulence of electronic voting machines in our country, I guess it depends on two possibilities: Who are they working for? and/or Who is threatening them and with what?

The 2000 debacle in FL was the justification of foisting the electronic fraud machines all over the US and particularly in potential swing states for convenience.


L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
16. How Kerry Votes Were Switched To Bush Votes
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:25 PM
Dec 2015

.....

Conclusions

The 2004 Ohio Presidential voting results do not accurately reflect voter intentions. In Cuyahoga County, the election was flawed and the design appears to have been manipulated. At locations with several ballot orders in use, many votes were cast by voters crossing precincts, hence counted other than as intended. At precincts with the highest Kerry support, the percentage of uncounted votes is inexplicably high. The obvious inference—intentional manipulation produced concentrated undercounting, cross-voting, and vote-switching in areas of highest Kerry support—cannot be ignored in the face of the evidence and statistics. The possibility that ballots were switched to different precincts, post-voting to effect vote-switching, must be considered in a complete chain of custody context.

Many individual ballots resulted in a vote-switch, a two-vote margin difference from the intended result. Switched-votes cast for Kerry and counted for Bush had twice the impact as their actual occurrence, by each subtracting one from Kerry and adding one to Bush. Bush and Kerry votes also went uncounted as non-votes or were miscounted as minor candidate votes. A high percentage of all Cuyahoga County votes were cast at locations with multiple ballot orders. The manner in which precincts and ballot orders were combined increased the probability of a Kerry cross-vote being recorded as a Bush vote. Quantitative analyses of candidate votes and of non-vote percentages evidence the cross-voting and the patterns of cross-voting and vote-switching.

Sorting locations and precincts to their specific cross-voting probability subsets reveals intended voting patterns and the degree of cross-voting. The combinations of ballot orders and precincts at polling locations enables quantitative analysis of cross-voting and vote-switching. The complexity of the election's organization—the great number of combinations of ballot orders and locations—also makes the task of determining the number of cross-votes laborious and complex. While that process is not concluded herein, the procedures so far taken in this study define the process. This process may be more easily applied to other Ohio counties given less-complex ballot order combinations.

Any official inquiry into the 2004 irregularities needs to be independent of political interests, and monitored by political interests. The fact that the irregularities discussed herein are known and have been reported to multiple jurisdictions and law enforcement entities, and yet no official inquiry into the election has occurred, illustrates the broader failure of the current election process and judicial system to respond to election fraud and irregularities or to hold officials accountable for their actions. Polling places should never have been arranged such as in Ohio, with multiple ballot orders and separate casting and counting devices. Measures are required to prevent the possibility of similar future flawed election designs. To this end, control of elections should be removed from competing political interests and actors to politically-independent processes, with at the least, independent and political oversight of elections.

Many more conclusions remain to be made as study and analysis continues. The 2004 Ohio election ballots must be preserved to allow further investigations. If this study illustrates anything, hopefully it is the degree to which this problem has not yet been fully considered, and the complete failure of officials to respond. During an era of new voting system technologies and reforms, careful consideration of past errors may prove useful in avoiding their repetition and in preventing future abuses of process and power.

The 2004 Ohio Presidential election remains to be fully investigated. The blatant evidence of irregularities and unfairness of organization continues to be ignored by most jurisdictional authorities informed of the evidence. I thank those few authorities pursuing this matter further.

..............

MORE http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html updated 2008.04.28

Snarkoleptic

(5,997 posts)
20. It's also worth looking at the facts surrounding the death of Bushie - Michael Connell
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 07:10 PM
Dec 2015

This some must read stuff....
http://freepress.org/article/ghost-rigged-elections-past-new-revelations-death-michael-connell-0

The ghost of rigged elections past: New revelations on the death of Michael Connell.

The newly discovered contract contains an “Exhibit B” which called for a “mirror” website to handle Ohio’s 2004 actual vote count on Election Night provided by Connell’s company, GovTech. The document stated: “GovTech shall install and host (as set forth in Exhibit B) a Mirror site of the Application to provide a fail over solution in the event of failure of the primary installation on Election Day.”

This “hot rollover configuration,” as the document explained, “can completely re-point the site if the primary site should fail by using some remote monitoring capabilities.” And that’s exactly what happened at 11:13pm when Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry was up three points over Republican incumbent George W. Bush.

Ohio’s 2004 votes were outsourced to Smartech in Chattanooga, Tennessee, owned by right-wing evangelical publisher Jeff Averbeck, subcontracted by Connell. The vote count inexplicably flipped at 12:21am changing from Kerry winning by over 3 percentage points to Bush winning by over 3 percentage points. Overall, there was an unexplainable rapid 6.7% shift in the vote count.

Smartech was also, curiously, the company that handled Karl Rove’s private email accounts from the White House. Millions of Rove's email files have since mysteriously disappeared – including those related to the Valerie Plame scandal and the firing of seven United States attorneys – despite repeated congressional and court-sanctioned attempts to review them.


--snip--

In his 2008 deposition Connell was generally evasive, but did disclose key pieces of information that may have proved damaging to Karl Rove and the GOP. Why the vote count was transferred from Ohio to Smartech in Chattanooga, Tennessee remains a mystery. This would have only happened if there was a complete failure of the Ohio computer election system on Election Night. However, Connell swore under oath that, “To the best of my knowledge, it was not a failover case scenario – or it was not a failover situation.”

Bob Magnan, an IT election specialist for the Secretary of State during the 2004 election, agreed that there was no failover scenario. Magnan said he was unexpectedly sent home at 9 p.m. on Election Night 2004 and that private contractors ran the system for Blackwell.


On a more recent note, there was the KKKarl Rove on-air freakout, which many thought to have resulted from a failed Ohio vote flip, which would have helped Romney.


After the dust settled, Anonymous claimed they thwarted a vote flipping operation. Great piece wrapping up 2004 and 2012...


eppur_se_muova

(36,263 posts)
22. Blackwell ... that's this Blackwell ...
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 07:43 PM
Dec 2015

On Friday December 10 two certified volunteers for the Ohio Recount team assigned to Greene County were in process recording voting information from minority precincts in Greene County, and were stopped mid-count by a surprise order from Secretary of State Blackwell's office. The Director Board of Elections stated that "all voter records for the state of Ohio were "locked-down," and now they are not considered public records."

Ohio Revised Code Title XXXV Elections, Sec. 3503.26 that requires all election records to be made available for public inspection and copying. ORC Sec. 3599.161 makes it a crime for any employee of the Board of Elections to knowingly prevent or prohibit any person from inspecting the public records filed in the office of the Board of Elections. Finally, ORC Sec. 3599.42 clearly states: "A violation of any provision of Title XXXV (35) of the Revised Code constitutes a prima facie case of election fraud within the purview of such Title."

Ohio's Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell boasted of helping "deliver" Ohio for President Bush and said he was "truly pleased" to announce Bush had won Ohio even before all of the state's votes had been counted in his own fundraising letter, RAW STORY has discovered. The letter, which was received by a Butler County resident Dec. 31, is a plea to support Blackwell's campaign for governor. The resident has asked to remain anonymous.

In apparent disregard for his nonpartisan role as Ohio's chief election official, the Republican Secretary and chairman of Bush's Ohio reelection campaign slammed Senator Kerry as a "disaster" who would have reaped "terrible" and "horrible" results on both Ohio and the United States.

Further, Blackwell's use of the word "deliver" finds striking resonance with another controversial fundraising letter sent by the CEO of voting machine manufacturer Diebold Walden O'Dell in the summer of 2003 when he said he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."



more at:
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/2004votefraud_ohio.html
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/2004votefraud.html

Alex Pelosi's new film "Diary of a Political Tourist" catches a tipsy Congressman Peter King making a comment at a White House function before the election had been finished that, "It's already over. The Election's over. We Won."

When Pelosi asks, "How do you know that?" King replies, "It's all over but the counting. And we'll take care of the counting." [Common Dreams]


L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
47. And, I call bullshit again.
Mon Dec 21, 2015, 12:05 PM
Dec 2015

The shift happened before the votes were counted and the SmarTECH ruse is part of the cover-up, created out of thin air AFTER the proof of the vote-switiching proof was published.

You are reporting on some attorneys trying to make money off this, suing Ohio and failing miserably doing so.

The counties count the vote and report it to the State. They know their counts and later they have to file official returns and there are slight changes. No one in Tennessee of elsewhere changes the reported vote totals from the counties. Why people fall for this transparent crap amazes me, the power of feeding people what they want to believe, I guess. It is like blaming the Ohio rigging on e-voting when Ohio voted almost all punch cards in 2004, and then focusing the e-vote rage on the county where Kerry did really well. It is as if no one thinks anymore, just repeats bullshit.

What we should be asking is if Ohio was rigged BY introducing the punch card system, apparently designed to rig Ohio elections from the very beginning when Ohio was rock-solid blue! And that would be why the cover-up is so elaborate and unrelenting, because we know the proof simply awaits the statistician willing to do the Herculean task of analysis of past election results.

malaise

(268,998 posts)
29. And then there was that crash
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:37 PM
Dec 2015
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/12/22/republican_it_specialist_dies_in_plane
<snip>
A top Republican internet strategist who was set to testify in a case alleging election tampering in 2004 in Ohio has died in a plane crash. Michael Connell was the chief IT consultant to Karl Rove and created websites for the Bush and McCain electoral campaigns. Michael Connell was deposed one day before the election this year by attorneys Cliff Arnebeck and Bob Fitrakis about his actions during the 2004 vote count in Ohio and his access to Karl Rove’s email files and how they went missing. [includes rush transcript]
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: A top Republican internet strategist who was set to testify in a case alleging election tampering in 2004 in Ohio has died in a plane crash. Mike Connell was the chief IT consultant to Karl Rove and created websites for the Bush and McCain electoral campaigns. He also set up the official Ohio state election website reporting the 2004 presidential election returns.

Connell was reportedly an experienced pilot. He died instantly Friday night when his private plane crashed in a residential neighborhood near Akron, Ohio.

Michael Connell was deposed one day before the election this year by attorneys Cliff Arnebeck and Bob Fitrakis about his actions during the 2004 vote count and his access to Karl Rove’s email files and how they went missing.

Velvet Revolution, a non-profit investigating Connell’s activities, revealed this weekend that Connell had recently said he was afraid George Bush and Dick Cheney would “throw [him] under the bus.” Cliff Arnebeck had also previously alerted Attorney General Michael Mukasey to alleged threats from Karl Rove to Connell if he refused to “take the fall.”

DFW

(54,379 posts)
32. Here in Euope I was asked before the election what I predicted
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:59 PM
Dec 2015

I predicted Kerry winning and Bush remaining in office. I always got asked how that could be.

Here's how:



They said flat out how they were going to do it. Everyone thought it was a joke. It wasn't.
 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
39. In 2009 Dems could have protected our elections and voter rights, but were too busy ...
Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:47 PM
Dec 2015

... passing a right-wing plan to make insurance companies richer.



Never forget: Zero Republicans voted for the ACA and we still didn't get even a public option.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»2004 Ohio Precinct-Level ...