Why are relations between the US and Cuba thawing now? Why not before?

[raccoon]

I can think of two possible explanations.

Castro stepped down. TPTB will have to deal with someone else, but at least it won't be Fidel Castro.

Second, because many if not most of the emigrants who left when Castro assumed power in Cuba are dead now.

Your thoughts?

[HassleCat]

1. Because our president is the opposite of a feckless coward? (eom)

[H2O Man]

2. Recommended.

I think that the two reasons that you note are correct.

[bigwillq]

3. Obama

Think Obama has done well on the Cuba situation.

[spanone]

10. ^^^this^^^

[upaloopa]

4. Because enough of the general public

evolved on their thinking about Cuba.

The hard line Cold War folks are dying off.

[DFW]

5. I'm sure Obama would have preferred to do this earlier

But he had to watch his back and how much political capital he would need to spend. Now, near the end of his second term, there is virtually nothing left the Republicans can threaten him with for doing this.

Besides, I predicted the day he won the first election in 2008 that we would have diplomatic relations with Cuba before he left office. He was running out of time, so he made sure it happened so that I didn't have to eat my words

[jeff47]

6. IMO, it's mostly the second.

Both the ones who left Cuba after the revolution, and their children. Their grandchildren do not care nearly so much about "liberating" Cuba, and it drops further with each generation.

[Le Taz Hot]

7. I'm guessing all the hard liner

anti-Castro Cuban Americans are just dying off and the younger Cuban-Americans aren't interested in keeping up the feud. In earlier days, the anti-Castro portion of Florida, particularly Miami, was formidable. That's no longer the case so it's become politically safe.

[Eleanors38]

14. ...and C. FL's Purto Rican population is more to the left, and growing fast.

[Wellstone ruled]

8. Maybe because of the

huge involvement of China in the Caribbean Basin. Notably,the building of Schools and Hospitals in the Dominican Republic,and other Island Nations. This in it's self is scaring the crap out of the Neo-Con factions. Notice the lack of Cuban bashing by the Rethugs,and, their big money donors are rampping up business ventures in Cuba. It is all about the money.

[JI7]

9. Obama

[Chitown Kev]

11. The most popular politician in Cuba right now.

Cubans favor President Barack Obama over both Castro brothers, according to a new poll.

In a Univision Noticias/Fusion poll released Wednesday, a majority of Cubans — 80 percent — said they have a positive opinion of the American president.

Their own leaders? Not so much: Only 47 percent have a positive opinion of Cuban President Raul Castro, and 44 percent have a positive opinion of his brother Fidel. Thirty-nine percent said they are satisfied with the current political system, while 53 percent expressed dissatisfaction.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/poll-obama-popularity-cuba-116777

And yes, I do think that President Obama will visit Cuba prior to the end of his term.

[joshcryer]

12. Little bit of both but Obama got the ball rolling.

[Rex]

13. Not saying it wasn't those two factors, but none of it would be talking place

without the POTUS asserting himself into the process. It is mostly due to Obama and timing.

[Hamlette]

15. Politics, of course

I've heard for years that if we are not mean to Cuba we (the Dems) will lose Florida. I'm thinking maybe the polls have changed and it is no longer such a hot button issue with Florida voters.

[raccoon]

20. Interesting point, but it sure didn't help in 2000. nt

[Eleanors38]

16. Trafficante belly-ached from his Tampa grave about re-opening Havana's brothels?

[former9thward]

17. Neither of your reasons.

U.S. business wants to take advantage of opportunities in Cuba and they are tired of UK, French and Spanish business beating them to it.

[Xolodno]

18. That and politics...but a side note:

1. The children who fled are more interested in getting in touch with there roots and visiting lost family. Even some of the elderly are now in the position of preferring to see family before they die off.

2. The wealthy who dreamed of a counter-revolt with the aspiration of being able to return and regain there property, companies, etc. have been hit with the reality brick. The Castro's and accomplices have one foot in the grave or are dead. Forcing a revolt via sanctions hasn't worked and with a new young generation, will likely never work. It just reinforces the belief that the USA is to blame for their economic woes. Obviously there are some die hards who still want payment with interest...but that has a snow balls chance in hell.

3. We kept Castro in power with our embargo. It gave him the cover he needed. Plus, the embargo works two ways, we don't buy anything from them...but can't send anything to them without suspicion. Castro would have probably been gone a lot sooner.

[maxsolomon]

19. Now or Never, and Obama's known it for years.

President Cruz or President Rubio will re-freeze the relationship if they can. Better to break the door down entirely.

If only he could end run the GOP and hand Guantanamo back.