Realistically what chance does Trumpy have in winning the GOP NOD

[brettdale]

Surly the GOP wont want him?, unless he really starts ripping into Gay people?

[jeff47]

1. The GOP leadership doesn't want him. But the GOP leadership created a monster - their base

And the leadership has lost control of their monster.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. truest comment ever !! they with Fox and Rush and Palin created this

monster. Just think if they had said "It is our moral duty to help those unfortunate people who can not afford to see a doctor. Let's figure out a plan! to help those in need."

[hifiguy]

23. Absolutely true.

Right now I'd say at least a 4 in 10 shot and maybe higher.

The monster is pulling the castle down on top of the assorted GOPee Doctor Frankensteins.

[phantom power]

25. That, and in this case Trump is a credible threat for a 3rd-party run

After all, he can afford to go it on his own, if he decides to. And both he and the GOP know that would throw the election.

[LongTomH]

40. "You have created a monster and it will destroy you!"

[Vinca]

2. I think he's the odds on favorite.

It's only a few weeks until the primary votes start and the "semi-sane" Republicans aren't even registering in double digits.

[gvstn]

28. I just saw this

IOWA: TRUMP 25 / CRUZ 22 / CARSON 18 / RUBIO 13 / PAUL 5 / BUSH 4

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3332149/Good-news-Cruz-s-just-TWO-points-Trump-Iowa-s-nearly-liked-Carson-nationally-too.html#ixzz3sRuGztWH

Scary! How could Cruz be in second place? Then again, How could Trump be first? They really have created a montser. Luckily Iowa is always wrong.

[jwirr]

29. Iowa and NH both vote the first week in February.

[Vinca]

32. I know. I live in NH. It's only about 10 weeks until we vote.

Scary stuff. LOTS of Trump signs and bumper stickers. I even spotted a Carson bumper sticker yesterday. There's nothing around to even indicate any semi-sane Republicans are running.

[jwirr]

35. Wow. That does sound bad. I wonder if there are Democrats

who are supporting him because they think he would be easy to beat?

[Vinca]

37. I wouldn't be surprised. We can cross over in the primary election.

I don't know if that's such a good idea this time, though. Given his staying power so far, I don't think Trump would be that easy to beat by either Bernie or Hillary. It's the year of the crazy.

[jwirr]

38. Yes, I really would not cross over for him. One wrong thing

happens in the world and he could win. No one is thinking anymore.

[randys1]

3. What matters simply is the GOP candidate only needs 45% of the votes to win

The 5% will be stolen with electronic voting machines and voter ID laws all of which are unconstitutional.

So even that fascist can win.

[plus5mace]

4. I thought an anybody but Trump/Carson movement would form,

but so far there is little evidence of that. The problem is that Trump is making racially charged statements that Republican voters agree with, so attacking Trump is attacking them at personal level. All establishment Republicans can do is hope that the media does their work for them, but they've worked very hard at discrediting the media, so that isn't working either. I'd give it 50-50 odds that either Trump or Carson wins the nomination at this point.

[KamaAina]

6. Kasich is trying to gin one up

against tRump, anyway.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027378892

[Bucky]

20. Carson will fade away over the next month. He'll barely break 10% in Iowa and go down from there

I still think it'll be a Trump-Rubio shoot out and I still think Trump will wear out his welcome eventually.

[SheilaT]

5. It comes down to basics: will enough voters in the GOP

primaries and caucuses support him to give him the delegate count he needs to win the nomination? So the earlier question becomes, will GOP voters be sufficiently bamboozled by Trump's racist, sexist, anti-immigrant, anti almost everything rants to think he's the guy they want as President? A corollary is, will the press start pushing him as hard as they need to be pushing him about his lies and bombast?

Only time will tell.

What I find scariest about Trump is not the above referenced rants, lies, and bombast, but the fact that he honestly hasn't a clue how our country is run, what is actually in the Constitution, what power a President actually has. He seems to think running the country would be a lot like running any of his all-to-frequently-bankrupt businesses, that a President is a CEO who can hire and fire at will. Of course, a lot of people have bought the "running a country like a business" nonsense that's been tossed around in recent years. Or how a country's budget should be like a family budget. People who believe either of those things have no understanding that there might be some fundamental differences between a country and a business, or what it costs to run a country versus what it costs to run a family, plus the vastly different ways those two things are funded.

[brettdale]

7. I still cant see him winning

When it comes down to it , wont the repugs even say "Well its been fun, but we
have to get serious now"

[jeff47]

11. No, they won't say that. (nt)

[SheilaT]

15. I don't see him winning, either, but

I'm not a Republican of any stripe. And all that matters in the nominating process is who shows up to vote.

[KamaAina]

9. Do the repukes have superdelegates the way the Dems do?

That would be a gamechanger, as it is difficult to see many elected officials jumping on either the tRump or Carsonogen bandwagon.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. No they don't - just us. The thing is -- there will be a whole slew of

crazies that will be P.O. deluxe if they get tricked out of Trump getting the nom. Either they won't vote or they will follow him 3rd party somehow - maybe too late for that? Either way, it's good for us and we may want that to happen - GOP denying Trump. It would fracture them beyond repair.

[underpants]

12. Correct but does he actually have a campaign

I don't know that he has created any ads (on TV for free so why?) but --does he have offices into the states? Staffers? Hillary's big mistake in 2008 was thinking they could pick up their show as on primary ended and moved to the next one(s) only to find that Obama was already there and had been for weeks.

Does Trump actually have a campaign?

[SheilaT]

33. I don't know if he actually has a campaign.

Someone said on another thread that he opened an Iowa office in August.

But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he simply hasn't a clue how the nominating process actually works, and so hasn't done much of what actually needs to be done, such as getting on the ballot in all the states for the primary or caucus. Perhaps he thinks that if he goes out there and rants and raves enough he will simply and magically be nominated. It's highly possible there is no one around him who understands the nominating process either, which means he'll not get himself on the various ballots, will learn that too late, will huff and puff and threaten to blow the house down, but the Republican Party won't budge, and he'll find himself totally locked out. At which point he may declare a third party candidacy, which if that happens I predict will initially show strong support, but will fade considerably closer to election day as all third party candidacies do.

[leftynyc]

8. For months I've been saying

he'll be the nominee. I don't see who knocks him off.

Edited to add: However, I'm also learning that he hasn't even looked into getting on the ballots of all 50 states. That he's only done that for the first 4 primaries. I just learned that today. And you know the RNC isn't going to let him slide on those - he will have to collect the signatures, they will be gone over with a fine tooth comb. If it's not Trump, Rubio.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. How odd....surely he's put some lackey on that? why wouldn't he. very

curious!

[Blasphemer]

39. Makes me want to...

Put on my and join the Trump-Clinton master plan believers.

[book_worm]

10. Good. A lot of the GOP contests are winner take all

For months the establishment, both the media and GOP, have tried to say Trump will fade--well, he's not.

[SteveG]

34. Not only winner take all

but starting on Super Tuesday, the person who gets a plurality of the votes gets all of the delegates. That means with the number of candidates he could easily win with 20%-25% of the total vote. The sad truth is that Trump could easily win the nomination.

[Sherman A1]

13. None

at some point the media will tire of him, bruise his ego and it will be on to the next flavor of the week/month. He may run as a third party, but I believe he will simply take his show and go home.

Could be wrong, but I don't believe so.

[LonePirate]

14. I think it depends on a couple of factors.

1. Where do Carson's supporters go now that his campaign is crumbling?

2. How much do Cruz and Rubio destroy each other instead of using that effort to destroy Trump?

[brettdale]

16. When is the first republican primary?

When is the first republican primary?

[Aerows]

17. I think he will get it

He's polling very high, and the anti-establishment fervor has hit the entire country, dems, reps, indies alike.

That's why you have Sanders being the most talked about Democratic candidate everywhere except on TV and in the media (on the street everybody knows who he is).

Wall Street is fine with either Clinton or Bush, which is exactly why Bush has cratered and I honestly believe that if Clinton gets the democratic nomination, you will see a President Trump.

It is absolutely critical to get out the vote for the Democratic Primary and get a candidate (Sanders) that can win. Clinton is not a candidate that can win. She will be slaughtered because she wants the glory, not the actual work of being President. That's why she can't articulate what her platform actually is - it's "win the Presidency".

It's what doomed her campaign in 2007-8, and it is what is going to doom her in 2015-6.

Everyday Democrats sense that about her. Don't take my "anecdotal evidence" though. Open your mouth and actually talk to people and see what reaction you get to Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton.

[BlueJazz]

21. Yep Aerows, I think you nailed it. If it's not Sanders it could very well be Trump.

[hifiguy]

26. An excellent overview, as usual!

[Mnemosyne]

18. Reagun. nt

[Yavin4]

27. History is filled with complete assholes ascending to power

So, yes, he has a good chance.

[jberryhill]

30. You make a very good point there

People wonder "how do these things happen?" And yet, they happen.

[Douglas Carpenter]

31. Exactly!!

[Hekate]

36. Unless they start "treating him unfairly" he's in. The gop ptb are running scared...

...because if he wins the nomination they are screwed and if he gets his fee-fees hurt and stomps off he'll run 3rd party and they are also screwed.

Congratulations GOP! You created the monsters running today, including Trump. As the media and the GOP finally noticed, he's running on pure fear and anger -- which, surprise, is pretty much a creation of the RW in every respect.

In so many ways this screws us all.

[dsc]

41. At first the thought of him winning was ridiculous but it is getting more likely

in my opinion. He is still the leading first choice and is competitive second choice. He does lose a lot of head to head matchups on the GOP primary but until it gets to be a two person race, I see him having a major advantage. I would put his chances at about 1 in 3.