The Year of the Anti-establishment Candidates

[CajunBlazer]

Needless to say this has thus far this been a very strange Presidential election cycle. The shear size of the original Republican field was mind boggling; they don’t allow that many people on a basket ball team. However, that was just a hint of the strangeness to come. It has been the preference of the voters which has left the professional political pundits scratching their heads. This is definitely the Presidential election where anti-establishment candidates have be thrust to the forefront.

On the Democratic side who would have thought that a self styled democratic socialist would be the preference of large percentage to the potential Democratic voters. While it seems like Bernie Sanders has been a fixture in Washington forever, his anti-establishment label never wore off. He is certainly an unlikely Presidential candidate.

(snip)

However, there seems to be no sanity in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. In that contest the true political outsiders cumulatively totaled up to roughly 50% of the Republican vote in the last five national poles – Trump (24.6%), Carson (21.8%), and Fiorina (3.2). I also think you have to include Ted Cruz to the list of outsiders. (11.0%) RealClearPolitics.com - Republican nomination Though Cruz’s Senate seat definitely makes him part of the Washington crowd, he is definitely as anti-establishment as anyone else in the Republican field. When Cruz is included in the anti establishment mix, those four candidates together command over 60% of poll votes.

Now pundits have long expressed the conventional political wisdom that when voters finally get serious about actually voting for someone, the anti-establishment candidates will fade away. Eventually they say that Rubio, who seems to be the best candidate running in the “establishment” lane, will be the last man standing. However, in my opinion we should only trust conventional wisdom in conventional election cycles and this election continues to defy convention.

(More) The Year of the Anti-establishment Candidates

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. Well thought article, and I now have visions of Trump/Carson or Carson/Trump

That is assuming that Trump would allow himself to be on the bottom in a relationship.

But the conventional wisdom of a third Bush for President seems pretty well dead short of a CIA back coup in the Republican Party.

[CajunBlazer]

2. I think it is more likely that Cruz will rise top of this....

nasty concoction eventually. I just heard on CNN that in the latest Iowa poll Cruz is now within 2% of the leader, Trump - something like 25% to 23%. Then again I wrote a long article on my blog about why no one should care who wins in Iowa because their initial caucus process which garners all of the attention is non-representative and meaningless.

However, I still have my doubts that either Trump or Carson can go the distance. Carson continues to say stupid things and stories like this one "Top US Psychiatrists Confirm Trump’s Narcissistic Personality Disorder – Textbook Case" are going to start hitting the mainstream media. But then again I am probably giving Republican voters too much credit.

Regardless, I agree that Bush is probably toast. He is not far right enough or combative enough to suit the far right Republican base. On top of that he has sorry debate skills. As I wrote in my blog post, I don't think that the Republican field will whittle down quickly enough to give an establishment candidate like Rubio an opportunity to consolidate all the establishment vote and become a truly viable before the outsiders have the nomination sown up. There is also some doubt that all of the establishment vote will be good enough this time around anyway.

By the way, I looked at DU profile and read your article, "The Big Reason Why Agents and Editors Often Stop Reading" As an aspiring writer, that is some of the best advice I have ever read. Thanks much for posting it. If you have any other advice of that nature please contact me.

[CajunBlazer]

3. Update - Cruz surging in latest Iowa poll, Rubio second in NH

Poll: Trump retakes lead, Cruz surges in IA; Rubio second in NH

Iowa CBS News Poll just released:

Trump 30%
Cruz 21%
Carson 19%
Rubio 11%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 2%
Paul 2%
Santorum 2%
(all the rest)

New Hampshire CBS Pole just released
Trump 32%
Rubio 13%
Carson 10%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 8%
Bush 6%
Fiorina 6%
Paul 6%
Christie 5%
(all the rest)